TCU-Baylor and the Mississippi schools — these are the topics the entire college football community is talking about. The editors of The Student Section weigh in after another wild weekend that wasn’t necessarily crammed with upsets, but still offered a lot of food for thought.
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Question No. 1: How should the CFB Playoff committee approach Baylor and TCU after the Bears’ 61-58 victory?
Bart Doan:
On Twitter @TheCoachBart
There’s a certain level of hypocrisy in what I’m about to argue, and I’m sure that’ll go over like a lead balloon, but it should be viewed as what it is … a battle of potential CFB Playoff contenders playing a close game with one obviously coming out on top.
Thus is the new climate of college football that we’re in, where nitpicking the stylings of games doesn’t matter as much when you’re allowing four teams in rather than two. Survive and advance, and it’s okay if you make a mistake along the way.
The hypocrisy comes in the fact that I railed hard against the farce of a season 2011 was, when LSU and Alabama rematched in the fake title game after a Hawthorne Heights-sad 9-6 regular season snoozefest and we were led to believe that crap was between the best two teams in the country.
But this is a different scenario. Anyone that’s played anything will tell you that each game takes on a life of its own, and sometimes that “life” is non-stop points, and sometimes that life is “we can’t score in an elephant brothel with a satchel of peanuts.”
So I don’t begrudge the bare numbers. Baylor came back and showed sack and won. Yes, it was a basketball score, but what else do you want … a loss? We see plenty of that every weekend, teams that look like they could come back and stay in the title race only to trip over the cracks in the ground.
The new world of college football is “flawed is okay. We have four spots available to fill.” Like it or not, that means the sexiness of the score and any revolting opinion for or against it is a bit more hollow than ever before.
If TCU and Trevone Boykin can run the table, they’ll be in the playoff mix. This loss to Baylor was excruciating, the mother of all gut punches, but if TCU can absorb it and put the rest of the Big 12 at its feet, the Horned Frogs will be in the thick of the conversation in late November. The question, of course: Can they actually get the job done, or will they never recover from what just happened in Waco?
Terry Johnson:
On Twitter @SectionTPJ
Here’s how the Selection Committee should evaluate these two teams right now.
Baylor deserves a lot of credit for beating a very good TCU team, which will likely finish the year in the top 10. Although it wasn’t pretty, the Bears came up with big play after big play in the final 11 minutes, which is why they got the “W.” That’s a sharp contrast from fellow playoff contenders Alabama, Oklahoma, and Oregon, who had a chance to win late in their losses this season but didn’t get the job done. The committee has to view that a positive on the Baylor resume.
However, the Selection Committee is still going to punish the Bears for playing a very soft non-conference schedule. Instead of challenging itself as some of other the top teams did, Baylor played SMU (0-5), Buffalo (3-4), and Northwestern State (3-3 in FCS). In order for the new system to have any sort of legitimacy, the committee has to dock the Bears for this schedule. Otherwise, every non-conference game will resemble “Cupcake Saturday” – better known as week 13 in SEC play.
While Baylor gets mixed reviews for this contest, TCU comes away with nothing but positives. Sure, a win would have been nice, but a close loss is the next best thing. By going down right down to the wire, the Horned Frogs at least planted a seed in the minds of the committee that the two teams are about equal, and that the outcome might have been different on a neutral field. Remember, the Selection Committee doesn’t use numbers to calculate strength of schedule – it uses the eyeball test. Considering that TCU was an eyelash away from beating a top-5 opponent for the second straight week, that’s going to give the Frogs a huge boost when it comes to strength of schedule.
Matt Zemek:
On Twitter @SectionMZ
All I would ask from the committee at this still-early point in the evaluation process is to make sure to note that a 61-58 game — while it suggests a complete lack of defense — actually involved a number of important defensive plays. Terry documented Baylor’s defensive prowess in the fourth quarter in his game story from Saturday.
The modern iteration of college football is one in which defenses aren’t going to put up glossy numbers. This is an offense-first sport. Number-management or number-containment is the challenge of a defense. TCU ran 89 plays… and that was 20 fewer than Baylor, which checked in with 109 snaps. Both teams have terrific playmaking athletes — you’re going to see a ton of points with that many snaps. No, 119 points (some scored by non-offense units) is a bit too much, but a reflexive “These teams are weaklings” reaction is patently impoverished and lazy.
Committee members, please honor that in your analysis. Rankings questions can wait as the Big 12 (and every other conference) accumulates more results.
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Question No. 2: Which ascendant team from the state of Mississippi is more likely to make the College Football Playoff, based on your current assessment of the landscape?
Mississippi State has to go to Tuscaloosa and Oxford in order to win the SEC West and punch its playoff ticket. The Bulldogs, as great as they’ve been, will have to continue to call forth all of their resources if this dream season is to end without a nightmare.
Matt Zemek:
Mississippi State has beaten defending SEC champion Auburn, and moreover, it’s not as though Mississippi State played one of its better offensive games of the season. The Bulldogs’ defense repeatedly stonewalled Auburn in the red zone and did not give up very many long pass plays. We’re used to seeing a Gus Malzahn offense have its way — maybe not for 60 minutes, but eventually, to the point that the opposing defense arrives at a point of helplessness. Mississippi State’s defense never reached that position. Mississippi State has the slightly better balance of offense and defense. Ole Miss probably has a nastier defense, but Mississippi State can do more with its offense — Dak Prescott can open up the field a little more than Bo Wallace, but it’s close.
Ultimately, the fact that MSU has beaten Auburn — the best of the non-Mississippi schools in the SEC — means that the Bulldogs deserve a slight nod over Ole Miss. The Bulldogs, if they can keep their nerve on the road against Alabama when they travel to Tuscaloosa, should be able to establish a lead at some point in November. Yes, they must go to Oxford for the Egg Bowl, but that’s a crazy game no matter where it’s played.
A postscript: Don’t attach or assign too much meaning to this analysis. We’re basically halfway home. More plot twists await.
Bart Doan:
Hotty Toddy. Mississippi State is the darling of college football right now, but eventually, the schedule will start knifing them. You can throw out the records in rivalry games, sure, but as opposed to Ole Miss, the schedule late in the season is a bit more of a son-of-a-pup.
The Bulldogs must navigate hostile Tuscaloosa and then go to Oxford to probably make the playoff, while the Rebels’ only remaining road games are against flawed LSU and one-dimensional Arkansas. They too will get Auburn at home. Then they get Hail State at their joint too.
College football is heavily weighted on these things. It’s hard to win on the road. Very. It gets even harder when you’re embroiled in a legendary season and putting your pelt on the wall makes every fan base drool with anticipation of the upset.
If there’s a saving grace either way here, it’s that both teams are complete, with excellent veteran quarterback play, elite defenses, and a knack for rising up to the moment. Both also dominate where you need it: in the trenches.
For once, either way, the sports world’s eyes will be on the Egg Bowl. About two to three years ago, that statement would have sounded remarkably absurd.
Bo Wallace continues to exhibit the calm, steady leadership Hugh Freeze had been waiting to see for a long time. Wallace is acting the way any good Doctor should. If he remains in control of his skills and the offensive unit he guides, everything is possible for Ole Miss.
Terry Johnson:
Without question, it’s Ole Miss.
That’s not to say that the Bulldogs don’t have an excellent team. With Dak Prescott at the controls, the MSU attack is one of the most explosive in the nation, ranking 11th nationally in total offense and scoring offense. Unlike other teams, they didn’t compile these stats just against weaker foes – they also excelled against solid competition. In two games against (currently) ranked opponents, the Dawgs are averaging 43 points and 514 yards per contest.
It’s hard to argue with those results.
Regardless, Ole Miss is the better of the two teams at this point in the season. While high-octane offenses can win games, defense wins championships. The Rebel defense has been one of the best in the nation this fall, ranking second nationally in scoring defense, eighth in turnovers forced, and 11th in total defense. It’s also held two opponents to less than 200 yards of total offense, including a 104-yard effort against Memphis, which racked up 540 yards against UCLA in week two.
In addition to its dominating defense, I think Ole Miss has a better chance because of its schedule. After all, the Rebels don’t play a ranked opponent on the road for the rest of season (unless LSU sneaks back in). On the other hand, Dan Mullen’s squad plays two ranked opponents in the final three games of the season, traveling to Tuscaloosa and Oxford late in November.
Also worth noting: in the last two Egg Bowls, the underdog pulled off an upset to capture a berth in the postseason. With Mississippi State likely to be the favorite in this game if both teams finish undefeated, that would seem to favor the Rebels.
Of course, there’s a lot that can happen before then. I’m not ready to count Alabama or Auburn out of the West race just yet.
