Arizona State Sun Devils

2014 Record: 10-3 (won bowl game)

1 Burning Question: Is this the year the Sun Devils break through?

Todd Graham has done wonders for Arizona State’s flagging football program, and the “sleeping giant” of programs appears to be stirring. However, the Sun Devils still have not won an outright conference title in football since 1996.

While there is an abundance of talent on both sides of the football, including most of a two-deep returning on defense, the Sun Devils play in one of the toughest divisions in college football in the Pac-12 South. The odds of getting through the division with minimal damage and then winning an extra game against Oregon, Washington or Utah seems like long odds on the surface.

2 Key Stats to Pay Attention to

+14: Arizona State’s turnover margin last season, good enough for sixth in the country overall and second in the Pac-12 behind conference champion Oregon. The Sun Devils were rebuilding the defense last season, but did not stop being aggressive. A little bit of luck came into play as well with not losing fumbles or turning it over much themselves – especially given the quarterback situation. If Arizona State can continue to protect the ball, that makes its offense even more dangerous.

1.75: Arizona State’s yards per carry on third down rushing attempts. The Sun Devils, for all of the talent they had on offense, only managed to gain 114 yards on 65 carries on third down last season. While they managed to win ten games, the offense could have been a lot more productive than it was.

3 Key Games That Will Make or Break the Season

Full 2015 Schedule

Sept. 5 – Texas A&M (in Houston)

Sept. 12 – Cal Poly

Sept. 18 – New Mexico

Sept. 26 – USC

Oct. 3 – at UCLA

Oct. 10 – Colorado

Oct. 17 – at Utah

Oct. 29 – Oregon

Nov. 7 – at Washington State

Nov. 14 – Washington

Nov. 21 – Arizona

Nov. 28 – at California

Saturday, October 3, at UCLA
Record in Last 5 Meetings: 2-3
Last Year’s Result: L, 62-27

This game is the first road test for the Sun Devils, and it comes a week after the USC game. It is easy to see the Sun Devils possibly letting down after facing USC at home. I’m not saying it will happen, but Arizona State needs to be careful anytime it goes on the road in conference play this season.

Thursday, October 29, vs. Oregon
Record in Last 5 Meetings: 0-5 (Last meeting: 2012)
Last Result: 2012, L, 43-21

This sets up as a possible Pac-12 Championship Game preview. The Sun Devils haven’t faced the Ducks in three seasons, but the Oregon program hasn’t changed that much on the surface. The Sun Devils will want to make a statement in this game, and beating one of the top programs in the country on a Thursday night when many eyes will be watching could help vault the Sun Devils (especially if they are undefeated at this point) into the thick of the playoff picture.

Saturday, November 28 at California
Record in Last 5 Meetings: 1-4 (Last meeting: 2012)
Last Result: 2012, W, 27-17

This is a potential letdown spot. The always intense Territorial Cup battle with Arizona is the week before, and depending on how things shake out, the division could already be wrapped up with the conference title game the following week. Cal was not that great last season, but the Bears are a potential sleeper team in the Pac-12 this season, and it could be disastrous for ASU to slip up at this point in the schedule.

4 Key Players

Mike Bercovici, QB — Having played well in relief of an injured Taylor Kelly last season, the senior now gets to take the reins himself, although he may be pushed by talented backups Manny Wilkins and Brady White. Yet, this is Bercovici’s squad to lead for the time being, and while he is not the threat to run that Kelly was, he showed the ability to effectively move the offense down the field. He can utilize his weapons on the outside and out of the backfield to make up for his lack of running ability.

D.J. Foster, RB/WR — With wide receiver Jaelen Strong off to the NFL, the most targeted returning receiver for ASU is Foster. He also is the leading returning rusher. His 1,769 yards from scrimmage last season illustrate just how versatile and dangerous Foster is within the Sun Devils’ offense. In the three games that the Sun Devils lost, Foster only accounted for 308 yards of total offense. When he didn’t gain yardage, the Sun Devils didn’t win.

Zane Gonzalez, K — Of course, even with the talented Foster and other weapons, the Sun Devils’ offense did sputter from time to time. Zane Gonzalez was 12th in the country in field goal attempts with 27, but he was accurate, missing only five of those attempts, with four of the misses coming from over 40 yards away. Of course, the Sun Devils would like to see fewer field goal attempts from the two-time Groza Award semifinalist… and more extra points.

Jordan Simone, FS — Safeties are the anchors of the defense, yet they get overlooked quite often. Simone is an understated safety, but he is a key cog in the secondary. He is the leading returning tackler (100 total tackles) and is a leader for a secondary that has a boatload of talent at the safety position. In a division that has outstanding talent in the defensive backfield, having a safety that can make plays is critical to success.

5 Bold Predictions

5. Todd Graham will be at Arizona State next season.

Okay, this isn’t really that bold of a prediction. Graham seems to have found a home at Arizona State, and is continuing his career pattern of having teams finish at or very near the top of the standings, as a Graham-led team has never finished lower than 4th place. The Sun Devils appear to be a contender in the Pac-12 South again this season.

4. The running game will improve.

The Sun Devils were in the middle of the pack on the ground, and (as highlighted above) abysmal on third down when rushing the ball. However, even with the change to a less mobile starting quarterback in Bercovici, expect the rushing game, with Demario Richard and Gump Hayes, to improve its statistics this season.

3. Mike Bercovici will finish the season as the starter.

Last year, the drumbeat was for Bercovici, who played well in relief of Taylor Kelly, to take over as Kelly struggled after he returned from a broken foot. Do not expect the same thing to happen this season. Even though there are other talented quarterbacks on the roster, expect Bercovici to play well enough (thanks to help from an improved running game) to retain the job all season.

2. Arizona State will be in contention for the Pac-12 South title and a playoff spot near the end of the season.

The have the tools. They have the talent. They have the coaching staff. The Sun Devils have everything that is needed to be a top ten program….

1. But they will not win the Pac-12.

The depth in the Pac-12 South is daunting. The Sun Devils will still win about 9 or 10 games, but tiebreaker scenarios will keep them from a chance to play for the Pac-12 crown.