No judgments here, just think about the question: If Arizona had not gotten smoked by Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl, would your opinion of the Pac-12 — in general or relative to the SEC (or both) — have changed? There is no empirically right or wrong answer here. Just do some thinking about the question and how you evaluate teams and conferences.

Bloguin Top 50: Number 16 — Boise State

Posted by on Aug 7, 2015 09:18

Boise State Broncos

2014 Record: 11-2 (won the Fiesta Bowl)

1 Burning Question: Can Boise State go undefeated … and if so, what would be the CFB Playoff’s response?

This is sort of like getting extra gin in your gin and tonic just because the bottle was nearly empty and the barkeep didn’t want to waste time with what little was left so he poured it in, but both questions are imminently tied to one another. Can Boise State go unbeaten? Sure. Odds are after two weeks, we’ll have a clue if it’ll be a legitimate push or that ship has sailed seeing as they open with Washington and at BYU. That said, the Broncos figure to be favored in almost every game and return enough meat to suggest it’s possible. Obviously no one going unbeaten is “likely” and everyone has a “possibility” of going unbeaten, but if you had to list five teams with the best shot, they’d be it.

The second part of the question is far more juicy. The CFB Playoff was supposed to have an aura of more inclusiveness to it, like making a country club semi-private or whatever. There was reasonable doubt a mid major would ever get into a BCS title game no matter what happened, and really it never came to finding that out because there were always more reasonable options ahead of them in the rare case it happened. But let’s say Boise State does run the table … what then? How does the committee evaluate them? And if they get squeezed out of four spots for some two-loss conference champ, then what? Lawyers? Yep, probably lawyers. And (gasp) more sweeping change.

2 Key Stats to Pay Attention to

50.6 – Points per game for the Broncos the last seven games of the regular season. It was almost like when your television is fuzzy and you’ve adjusted the rabbit ears and the only thing left is to smack it, so you do, and suddenly the picture is perfect. Boise State’s offense flat out took off all of the sudden in the middle of the season after a sort of pedestrian beginning to it. Bryan Harsin’s offensive acumen is well documented, and it seems like he found what he was looking to do in year one. Woe to the teams on the schedule if that offense returns from the jump.

33 – Red zone rushing touchdowns in 2014, best of the top 25 most efficient red zone teams in the country, of which the Broncos were 17th. Part of what made that Boise State offense so lethal was their ability to smash it down your throat betwixt the 20 and the end line. Red zone scoring is one of those obtuse stats not that many people pay attention to that probably ends up meaning a lot more than some of the ones that do get all the pub. Now, there will be a lot to replace to hit that number, but for them to keep that red zone efficiency up (and wins up), they’ll need to find that spark between the tackles when the field gets small.

3 Key Games That Will Make or Break the Season

2015 Full Schedule

Date Opponent / Event Location Time / Result
09/04/15 vs. Washington TV Boise, Idaho 8:15 p.m. MT
09/12/15 at BYU TV Provo, Utah 8:15 p.m. MT
09/18/15 vs. Idaho State TV Boise, Idaho 7:00 p.m. MT
09/25/15 at Virginia TV Charlottesville, Va. 6:00 p.m. MT
10/03/15 vs. Hawai’i * TV Boise, Idaho TBA
10/10/15 at Colorado State * TV Fort Collins, Colo. 5:00 p.m. MT
10/16/15 at Utah State * TV Logan, Utah 7:00 p.m. MT
10/24/15 vs. Wyoming * TV Boise, Idaho TBA
10/31/15 at UNLV * TV Las Vegas, Nev. TBA
11/14/15 vs. New Mexico * TV Boise, Idaho TBA
11/20/15 vs. Air Force * TV Boise, Idaho 7:30 p.m. MT
11/27/15 at San Jose State * TV San Jose, Calif. 1:30 p.m. MT

Saturday, September 12, @ BYU
Record in the Last 5 Meetings: 4-1
Last Year’s Result: W, 55-30

Why it matters: This is your money game right here for wherever BSU ends up going. They’ve dropped their last three road openers, and as you scan the schedule, this is probably their toughest road test. BYU is a formidable opponent and winning in their joint is a resume builder that nationally, will be looked back on if BSU makes a push at an unbeaten season. Lose it, and obviously that is all done before the season barely gets rolling. Win it, and the murmurs and pressure will start.

Friday, September 4, Washington
Record in the Last 5 Meetings: 1-2
Last Year’s Result: Did Not Play

Why it matters:  Forget the Chris Petersen stuff. Boise State is in a good place and became an elite place in part because of Petersen’s work there. The real story is how BSU would be using a game against what should be “okay” Washington to springboard their national platform if they win handily. Petersen could be the gift that keeps on giving if the Broncos win and Washington goes onto a respectable season in the rugged, salty Pac 12.

Friday, October 16, @ Utah State
Record in the Last 5 Meetings: 5-0
Last Year’s Result: W, 50-19

Why it matters:  This one comes a week after a tilt at Colorado State, so that’s a dirty back to back stretch to be had in the middle of the season by Mountain West standards. USU, if fully healthy especially at the quarterback position, would be a heck of a stumbling block for BSU. Also, this game represents their toughest in-conference challenge, since winning the conference is probably part of the goal too.

4 Key Players

Ryan Finley, QB — Finley tossed for all of 161 yards last year, so with all of this talk about 17 returning starters and how far can the team go, they have actual questions at the most important position on the field. Finley has looked the part since Grant Hedrick’s departure, but there is still an awful lot of growth to do on-field in dire situations in a short amount of time for Finley.

Tyler Horn, DE — Injured for the year in their first game of 2014, Horn was on his way to becoming a star with a knack for finding tackles behind the line of scrimmage. A senior, Horn petitioned to play another season in Boise and will get his shot, bringing more high-caliber talent to what is the Mountain West’s best defensive line.

Kamalei Correa, STUD — Granted, he plays the position, but in football terms, “stud” is the perfect positional name for the guy. For the most part, he came out of nowhere to be a pass rushing eater of souls last season, racking up 12 sacks and earning a Mountain West first team accolade. The one thing that makes BSU an intimidating team nationally is that they actually do the things your power 5 power teams do, which is control the line of scrimmage and rush the passer. Correa’s encore should be outstanding.

Jeremy McNichols, RB — Averaging 13.9 yards per touch (including special teams duty), McNichols is one of those dudes that just oozes breakout play whenever he’s on the field. BSU should be able to creatively move him around in formations as well as keep him in positions to get his hands on the ball in open space that will help shorten the field quick, fast, and in a hurry. He’s kind of like the pry bar of the Mountain West. You can use him for any number of things.

5 Bold Predictions

5. Boise State fields a top 10 national scoring offense.

For all the talk about how good the defense should be and the holes the offense needs to fill, especially in the offensive backfield, look for more comfort across the board in Harsin’s system and more picking up where they left off to end the season rather than a trend such as 2014 where there was a break-in period. Finley should be a breakout star in college football.

4. Horn places on the all-conference first defensive team.

With all of the attention set to be given to Correa … who should in his own right be on the team … Horn will be one of the more easy to enjoy comeback stories of 2015 in college football, and be awarded so for a fantastic season upon completing that comeback.

3. Boise State thumps Washington … which proves to be a perception builder two months later.

This probably is more about Washington than BSU, but methinks on that first Friday in September, Boise puts a hurting on them. That said, Chris Petersen is an elite coach, and he gets that club competitive in the Pac 12 enough for people to look back at Boise … those willing to remember back that far (all that “body of work” stuff) … in a different light come later in the season.

2. Boise State wins the Mountain West.

As pressure mounts to accomplish certain things throughout the season, the games will get tougher. And even though they’re the prohibitive favorite, it’s still something bold to suggest it with such conviction and considering they do have a tough schedule at times in-conference. The feeling here is that they get it done.

1. The Broncos go 12-1 in the regular season, put a major team bowl pelt on the wall, and springboard to 2016 with a potential top 10 preseason ranking.

For as many returning starters as they have, nine are juniors, so next year seems to be the year when things could really explode for them. Finley is a sophomore and will have growing pains for sure. There is an immense amount of depth and talent on the roster… but so much of it is young and will return next season. While this sets up to be a great Boise State year, look for this to be a springboard to national expectations and a possible preseason top 10 ranking in 2016 … when they really may kick in the door at long last and let us find out what we may have been missing by giving them the wrong key all these years.

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