Stanford Cardinal
2014 Record: 8-5 (won bowl game)
1 Burning Question: Is Stanford ready to make small margins work in its favor again?
It is in the nature of smashmouth, ball-control teams — think of Wisconsin basketball under Bo Ryan several seasons ago, before the past two years of dynamic offense — to play games closer to the margins. Stanford will land the quick knockout punch if it’s there, but the Cardinal have been dispositionally and tactically content to play four-quarter games in which they rely on their defense and muscle to wear down opponents. Stanford is more inclined to play it safe than other, more volatile teams that court risk with more frequency.
In bowl games — especially the 2014 Rose Bowl against Michigan State — this lack of imagination and creativity has caught up with head coach David Shaw, but Stanford’s relentless commitment to interior line play and executing simple plays well has enabled the Cardinal to become a powerhouse in the Pac-12. Shaw has generally sustained what Jim Harbaugh initially built. He earns high marks for what he’s done since he replaced college football’s media-magnet man of the moment, who now resides in Ann Arbor.
Last year, though, Stanford’s small margin for error turned into a ditch. Though not horrible at 8-5, Stanford couldn’t maintain the standard it set in 2012 and 2013. Close losses to Utah, Notre Dame, and USC, plus a (not-as-close) loss at Arizona State in which the defense performed as well as it reasonably could, marked the first true downturn of the Shaw era. What was noticeable about the frustrating 2014 season is that the defense really wasn’t to blame — this, despite losing Shayne Skov, Trent Murphy, and Ben Gardner from the 2013 group that reached a second consecutive Rose Bowl.
Shaw’s ability to field and coach strong defenses remains intact. It was the offense that let down the team in 2014. This year, though, attritional aspects of competition suggest that the offense will be the team’s stronger side. The same tension points exist for Stanford in a realm of small margins, but instead of playing 20-17 games, the Cardinal might have to win 34-31 games this season.
At any rate, the journey will be fun to watch in a loaded Pac-12.
2 Key Stats to Pay Attention To
15 — The number of scoreless red-zone possessions for Stanford in 2014. The Cardinal’s red-zone struggles easily represented the banner-headline story from the 2014 season. The tone for the campaign was set in a loss to USC in early September. The Cardinal worked inside the USC 40 on each possession in the game… and somehow scored only 10 points, losing 13-10.
Stanford is precisely the kind of team that can’t give away points. The Cardinal gave away plenty of points in 2014. It’s a non-negotiable point: That must change in 2015, or the Card will be dealt another bad hand.
42 — The percentage of third downs converted by the offense last season. Again, this simply cannot remain the same if Stanford is to succeed in the coming months. The 42-percent figure was down over seven full percentage points from 2013.
3 Games That Will Make or Break the Season
2015 Full Schedule
9/5 – at Northwestern
9/12 – UCF
9/19 – at USC
9/25 (Fri.) – at Oregon State
10/3 – Arizona
10/15 (Thurs.) – UCLA
10/24 – Washington
10/31 – at Washington State
11/7 – at Colorado
11/14 – Oregon
11/21 – California
11/28 – Notre Dame
Saturday, September 19 at USC
Record in Last 5 Meetings: 3-2 (but has lost two straight)
Last Year’s Result: L, 13-10
Why it matters: Playing a league contender in September is always a huge game for any team in any conference. Revenge forms part of the backdrop to this game, but that won’t help win a Pac-12 North title. Beating USC will.
Saturday, October 3 vs. Arizona
Record in Last 5 Meetings: 4-1
Last Year’s Result: N/A — Last meeting in 2012: W, 54-48 (OT)
Why it matters: Arizona is the defending Pac-12 South champion. This game comes before a bye week. Stanford is in much better position to handle UCLA after the bye week. If it can survive Arizona in this spot while also taking care of USC, the Cardinal should go 4-0 against the South. They don’t play Arizona State or Utah.
Saturday, November 14 vs. Oregon
Record in Last 5 Meetings: 2-3
Last Year’s Result: L, 45-16
Why it matters: With Washington still in rebuilding mode, this remains the Pac-12 North game of the season. There’s no need to say too much about Stanford-Oregon; the clash’s importance in recent years speaks for itself. Stanford gets this game at home against a UO team without Marcus Mariota. If you were to tell David Shaw right now that Stanford will be in position to take the North lead with a victory, he’ll sign on the dotted line in a heartbeat. The question is if Stanford can indeed stay within one game of the Ducks (at worst) heading into the back end of November.
STANFORD, CA – OCTOBER 25, 2014: Christian McCaffrey during Stanford’s game against Oregon State. The Cardinal defeated the Beavers 38-14.
4 Key Players
Kevin Hogan, QB — He had shoulder problems for portions of the 2014 season, and his father died. Yes, it was a rough year for Hogan. How much did he regress, and how much did outside factors (plus health) contribute to a decline relative to 2013? We’ll find out this fall. Stanford’s defense picked up the offense last season. This year, the offense will almost certainly have to carry more of the weight for the team.
Christian McCaffrey, RB — After a season marked (and marred) by red-zone troubles, Stanford has to be exponentially better in getting tough yards in the opponent’s third of the field. If you talk to most national and Pac-12 analysts, they’ll tell you McCaffrey — son of Super Bowl champion wide receiver Ed McCaffrey of the Denver Broncos — is the member of the Stanford backfield who has to elevate his level of performance.
Aziz Shittu, DL
https://twitter.com/LombardiESPN/status/631253562295631872
Harrison Phillips, DL
https://twitter.com/LombardiESPN/status/631278098672029696
5 Bold Predictions
5. Stanford will beat USC.
The red-zone woes will be addressed, and Stanford will punch USC in the mouth at the point of contact. Related: Stanford will need to win the game at the line of scrimmage, because if the Cardinal and Trojans play to a draw in the trenches, USC’s speed will be too much for Stanford. The Cardinal have shown that they can replace copious quantities of prime talent on defense and not miss a beat, but they still lose nine starters on defense, and an early-season game against USC’s receivers will be a stiff test for the Stanford secondary. The defensive line, with Shittu and Phillips leading the way, has to get the job done.
It will.
4. Stanford will beat Arizona.
That 54-48 overtime game three years ago said so much about both programs in the present moment, and a lot about Arizona on a larger historical level. Arizona dropped an interception in the end zone late in the fourth quarter that would have sealed the win. Stanford tied the game moments later and won in the extra stanza. That escape enabled the Cardinal to return to the Rose Bowl for the first time since the 1999 season. This year, another Stanford-Arizona game could possess league championship implications.
Arizona led a charmed existence in 2014, benefiting from a Hail Mary and a Joe Pisarcik-style fumble from Washington. Stanford watched 2014’s small margins slip away, but the Cardinal should regain them at home against the Wildcats.
3. Stanford will beat UCLA.
The Cardinal limped into Pasadena with a 6-5 record last season and blasted UCLA out of the top spot in the Pac-12 South. The Cardinal are very comfortable against the Bruins. There’s no reason to think this year will be any different.
2. Stanford will lose to Oregon.
By the middle of November, Oregon will have been able to find solutions for its new quarterback, and for an offensive backfield that will spend the season without Thomas Tyner. Yes, Stanford’s defense wil have settled into the season, but Oregon simply runs a better offense than any other team in the Pac-12. That reality will show up in this game.
1. If the Pac-12 gets two teams in the New Year’s Six, Stanford will be the at-large (No. 2) team.
This Pac-12 season is going to be a dogfight from Eugene down to Tucson, including Salt Lake City but excluding Boulder, Pullman, and Seattle. The Oregon, Bay Area, Southern California, and Arizona schools plus Utah will make the Pac a very balanced league, probably better than last season. No team is likely to escape the conference unscathed. The timing of losses — creating the specific pecking order of tiebreakers — is what will likely decide the league. A loss to Oregon will therefore leave Stanford outside the Pac-12 title game, but if Oregon — beaten by Arizona State in Tempe during the regular season (that’s another prediction) — gets revenge in a (prediction alert!) Pac-12 Championship Game rematch, Stanford would be in great position to get a second NY6 ticket from the Pac.
