At the beginning of the season, few would have guessed that a mid-October matchup between Northwestern and Iowa could have Big Ten Championship Game implications, but that is certainly where we are.
Coming into the season, Wisconsin and Nebraska were heavy favorites to run away with the Big Ten West. Iowa was predicted to finish ahead of just the disasters at Purdue and Illinois, as well as Northwestern.
According to many, both Northwestern and Iowa were eyeing .500 seasons in conference; Iowa is already halfway there.
The Hawkeyes have been one of the biggest surprises of the 2015 season, entering the game unbeaten with wins against Pittsburgh and at Wisconsin.
This level of success was needed for Kirk Ferentz; simply solid but not overwhelmingly great seasons were starting to take their toll on the fan base. Ferentz has led the Hawkeyes to 12 bowl appearances in the last 14 seasons, but only four double-digit-win seasons over that span. Only one of those seasons has come since 2005. Plus, over the last three seasons, Iowa has played an even .500, not giving its followers a ton of confidence coming into this season.
One of the biggest question marks for Iowa was quarterback C.J. Beathard, who replaced Michigan transfer Jake Rudock. Beathard has a significantly stronger arm than Rudock, and allowed the offense to take more chances with his talent. This was the necessary upgrade the offense had been lacking.
Jordan Canzeri also gave the Hawkeyes more speed and shiftiness at tailback to complement the passing attack. While the Hawkeyes are 62nd in total offense, this improvement has taken Iowa to 43rd in points per game through six games, up from 65th. Basically, it has allowed the offense to take the next step.
The biggest question for Iowa is whether it can overcome a rash of injuries this season. The announcement that the squad had lost star defensive end Drew Ott for the season with a torn ACL marked the fifth opening-day starter who has lost games due to injury.
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Let’s turn to Northwestern.
While the Wildcats got torn apart last week in the Big House, they boast wins over Stanford, at Duke, and against Minnesota. The true question is which Northwestern team shows up. Will it be the team that had two shutouts and allowed just a touchdown per game, or the one that gave up 38 points and 380 yards to Michigan?
After five straight bowl appearances for Pat Fitzgerald, the Wildcats have been shut out in the postseason the past two years. The roster returned 15 starters from last season, which did not instill a lot of confidence in the team.
While Clayton Thorson has been okay at quarterback, it is the defense which has made the difference for Northwestern. It did, however, fail to come to the party against Michigan.
Physicality was the main issue for Northwestern against Michigan, as the rushing attack was nearly completely bottled up to the tune of just 38 rushing yards. Coming into the game, Northwestern was averaging 248.8 yards per game on the ground. On the opposite side, Iowa is fifth nationally in rush defense, allowing just 78 yards per game.
Following Saturday’s contest, the winner will take command of the Big Ten West. If it is Iowa, it would have a two-game lead over everyone in the division except Minnesota. The remaining schedule for the Hawkeyes: Maryland, at Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue, and at Nebraska.
The remaining schedule, combined with the early advantage, means Iowa could have its road paved to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship Game… and may even enter that game unbeaten.
