It’s Friday, which means that it’s time for me to give you my thoughts, observations, and things to pay attention to for this week’s action on the gridiron. Here’s what I’m keeping an eye on this weekend.
- Forget about the quarterback position: defense is the key to victory for Florida this weekend. How well the Gator D — which is allowing just 3.05 yards per carry — fares against Leonard Fournette will determine the outcome of this contest against LSU.
- While he’s always dangerous with the ball in his hands, Fournette is especially tough on second down. This season, he’s run the ball 47 times for 512 yards (10.89 ypc) on second down, with 30 of those carries resulting in first downs.
- On the other hand, the Gator D hasn’t allowed a touchdown on the road this year.
- Even if — and it’s a big if — Florida should slow down Fournette, LSU’s passing game has just enough punch to carry the team if needed. While he doesn’t have the video game-like numbers other quarterbacks do, Brandon Harris has stepped up his play against SEC opponents, completing 39 of 59 passes (66.1%) for 373 yards and 3 TDs in those contests.
- Likewise, don’t assume that the Gator offense will struggle with Treon Harris under center. Sure, his numbers weren’t good last year, but whose were under Will Muschamp? He’s been a much different player in McElwain’s scheme this year, completing 19 of 27 passes (70.4%) for 269 yards and 2 TDs in limited action this season. Given that he’s a perfect 10 for 10 in the first half this season, there’s no reason to think that he can’t get the Gators off to a fast start this weekend.
- LSU has scored 21 defensive TDs under Les Miles.
- Although it won’t get top billing this weekend, Alabama-Texas A&M will be the most exciting game on the slate. The matchup between the Crimson Tide defense (6th nationally in total defense) and the Aggie offense (20th in total offense) will be worth the price of admission.
- With that said, Texas A&M’s much-improved defense will determine whether the team wins or loses. After all, Alabama has outgained the Aggies in each of the last three meetings, including the 2012 game when A&M upset the Tide in Tuscaloosa.
- For what it’s worth, the Aggie defense has played well against teams with winning records (Arizona State and Mississippi State), allowing just 348.5 yards per game in those contests.
- Of course the converse of that statement is also true, as Alabama averages 461.3 yards per game and 6.02 yards per play against teams with winning records.
- Also working in the Tide’s favor: Alabama is 18-7 against top-10 opponents since 2007.
- However, Texas A&M is 102-32-2 all-time when it’s ranked in the top 10, including a 12-3 mark under Kevin Sumlin.
- Expect Michigan State to play like a top-10 team on Saturday. Although they haven’t destroyed everyone on their schedule, the Spartans played their best game of the year against then-No. 7 Oregon. You’d better believe that Mark Dantonio will have his team ready to play.
- If that doesn’t sentence convince you, this fact certainly will: Connor Cook is 29-3 overall as the starting quarterback, with an 18-1 mark against Big Ten opponents.
- Of course, it’s hard to find a team that’s playing better than Michigan right now. Since a season opening loss to Utah, the Wolverine defense hasn’t allowed more than 235 yards in a single game, holding four of its five opponents under 200 yards.
- Yet, it’s the UM running attack that holds the key to victory in this rivalry game. The Wolverines’ only win in this series since 2008 was when they ran for 5.1 yard per carry against the Spartan D in 2012. Aside from a 162-yard effort in 2010, Michigan never ran for more than 3.3 ypc during that time.
- To be fair, sacks had a lot to do with those totals: Michigan State recorded 25 sacks in that span, including seven apiece in 2013 and 2015.
- The most underrated matchup of the weekend is Connor Cook — who’s 16th nationally in passing yards on third down — against the Wolverine D, which leads the nation in third down conversion defense. It’ll be interesting to see which unit prevails under pressure.
- Regardless of who wins this weekend’s Northwestern – Iowa matchup, the Big Ten West race is far from over. That’s not a knock on either team; it’s just an acknowledgement that there are several good teams in the division which are capable of knocking each other off on a weekly basis.
- The Wildcats certainly fall into that category. Sure, the loss against Michigan left a bad taste in everyone’s mouth, but Northwestern still ranks 9th nationally in total defense, so the Wildcats should be in every game (just ask Stanford). The big question is “Can they score enough?”
- That’s going to be a tall task against Iowa. The Hawkeye defense has been pretty strong against the run this year, holding five of its six opponents to fewer than 100 yards on the ground — including games against Wisconsin and Illinois the last two weeks.
- Is Baylor’s offense for real, or did the Bears just compile all these great stats by playing against lousy defenses? We’ll find out this week when the Bears face West Virginia, which ranks 41st nationally in total defense.
- With that said, the matchup between the Mountaineer ground game (19th nationally at 222.4 ypg) and a stout Baylor front seven that’s only allowed 3.15 yards per carry will be just as much fun to watch.
- Louisville-Florida State is another under-the-radar game I’m keeping an eye on. Yes, the Cardinals’ 2-3 record looks bad on paper, but they could easily be 5-0 with a couple of breaks. I’m curious to see how they’ll do against a much-better-than-it-gets-credit-for Seminole team, one that is 10th nationally in scoring defense and 14th nationally in yards per carry.
- This week’s upset special: USC upsets Notre Dame in South Bend. Granted, this doesn’t seem like the most logical pick in the world just by looking at the stat sheets. However, we’ve yet to see the Trojans play up to their potential this season. Look for the team to rally around interim coach Clay Helton, and play like a top-25 squad this weekend to earn the “W”… just as he did in 2013 as the interim coach in the Las Vegas Bowl.
- Upset Special No. 2 – Oregon over Washington. Even though most people are already talking about what the Ducks will do in 2016, I refuse to give up on them. While unfortunate, last week’s lost against Washington State got the attention of everyone on the UO sideline. Regardless of whether it’s Vernon Adams, Jeff Lockie, Taylor Alie, or some combination of the three, Oregon’s offense will put together its most complete game of the year, and earn a much-needed victory.
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