One week ago, the race for the Group of Five bid in a New Year’s Six bowl was all wrapped up. The American controlled the bid and was guaranteed a spot in either the Peach or Fiesta Bowl, depending on who emerged as the champion.
That was last week. This week, everything is different. One game changed the whole complexion of this race.
South Florida walloped Temple.
The American is no longer guaranteed to have a champion who is a shoe-in for the NY6 bid. If the team from the West (either Navy or Houston) wins the conference championship game, that team is going to an NY6 Bowl (likely Houston to the Fiesta, Navy to the Peach). However, if there is an upset in that game, we could be looking at another conference champion for that spot.
If Temple wins out, the Owls are probably still the best candidate from any G-5 conference to go to an NY6 bowl game. However, Temple has one of the toughest games of its season this week when it hosts Memphis. If Temple loses that game, the Owls may not even win the AAC East. South Florida could then win the conference by beating Cincinnati and UCF. Even if Temple loses to Memphis but wins the AAC East, it will no longer have a resume that is ahead of the other G-5 conference champions.
So if a 10-3 Temple comes out of the AAC, who is in position to get the G-5 bid? Boise State may have been the next team in line for that spot, but the Broncos fell to New Mexico Saturday night, which all but killed their chances of getting this bid. In fact, the Mountain West’s only real hope might be Air Force, whose two nonconference losses to Michigan State and Navy mean they actually don’t have an awful resume.
What conference stands to be in the best position if Temple wins The American?
Look no further than the MAC.
The MAC currently has two teams that are viable candidates for an NY6 Bowl. Luckily for fans of #MACtion, these two play on Tuesday night. That’s right, Bowling Green and Toledo will face off for second place in the G-5 pecking order. If Bowling Green wins, the Falcons are in pretty solid position; all they have to do is root for Temple. If Toledo wins, the Rockets will still need Northern Illinois to lose a game in order to have a chance in the MAC.
The MAC is far from guaranteed to have a champion worthy of getting a G-5 bowl, though. Bowling Green can beat Toledo and then lose the MAC Championship Game, which would mean that the MAC does not have a real contender for this spot. We’ll know much more once Bowling Green and Toledo finish on Tuesday night, but for now the MAC’s two best teams both have pretty solid Playoff resumes–and Toledo’s win over Arkansas is looking better and better.
Who else could possibly be in contention? We have basically eliminated the MWC; we can also write off the Sun Belt. It would take an upset of incredible magnitude for Arkansas State to not win the conference at this point. The Red Wolves have three non-conference losses, all to decent teams, but they have no wins of any note whatsoever. Their only win over a team in the top half of the FBS is against Appalachian State. They won’t get the bid, no matter how chaotic the rest of the country gets.
That leaves us with Conference USA. C-USA’s two best shots at the bid face a showdown on Black Friday, Nov. 27. The winner of that battle between Western Kentucky and Marshall will have a solid resume, though it will be better for the conference if that team is Western Kentucky. WKU played three Power 5 teams out of conference, going 1-2. Running the table in Conference USA will make a compelling case, though probably one still behind Bowling Green and definitely behind Toledo if the Rockets win out. Marshall or Louisiana Tech will have a chance if they win the conference, but they will need a serious flop from the top teams in the AAC and MAC to really be considered.
Of course, it’s always the most fun to consider what happens if all the better options from the G-5 conferences lose. We can suddenly see teams that no one ever dreamed of getting into a major bowl suddenly looking at a Fiesta or Peach Bowl. There are just way too many games left and way too much time to start worrying about those, though. The possibilities are pretty endless. They’re fun. Unfortunately, they’re not likely and there are too many of them to fully discuss.
*
Yet, in an attempt to summarize everything said above, we do see a clear pecking order right now. The AAC West has control of the bid. If the winner of Houston-Navy wins the conference, that team will play in the NY6. A loss by the Cougars or Midshipmen in the AAC title game means that our next option is the winner of Toledo-Bowling Green. If that team also ends up ineligible, the next considerations are either the Marshall-Western Kentucky winner from Conference USA, or Temple if it wins the AAC.
If none of those teams materialize, we could be in for a fun final Saturday of speculation and a heck of a difficult decision for the selection committee to make.
