Rooting interests go beyond the rivalries which will be staged the next two weeks. Let’s see how they stack up.
If you have seen our Bubble Watch here at The Student Section, you will remember that we still count 15 teams with a chance at making the College Football Playoff.
Some of those teams will have a better chance than others. Some of those teams don’t really have much of a chance at all, and I am just waiting another week or two before hitting the final “eliminate” button. However, for those teams still alive and not in the best shape, getting into the CFP will be a lot more than just winning out. They need help from teams across the country. Therefore, we’re going to tell you whom everyone still left alive should be rooting for.
Of course, every team has a rooting interest in the major games of the weekend. Everyone cares, in some way, who wins between Michigan State and Ohio State. However, for some of the teams on this list, some of the lower-profile games might actually have a big effect.
ACC
Clemson: Clemson’s resume is getting a little thin, though the Tigers are still perfectly safe if they go undefeated. If they want to survive a loss against South Carolina, though, they need both Notre Dame and North Carolina to keep on winning (and Florida State, but the Seminoles aren’t losing to Chattanooga this week).
North Carolina: With that schedule, Carolina’s Playoff dreams have been on life support since week 1. The Tar Heels need Clemson to keep on winning to provide an opportunity to face the No. 1 team in the ACC Championship Game. They will also be pulling for Pitt over Louisville so that the Panthers might be able to sneak back into the rankings at 9-3. Most importantly, though, they need losses by Stanford and Notre Dame just to open up one of those Playoff spots.
Big Ten
Ohio State: At this point, the Buckeyes may need to win out to get into the Playoff. Two quality wins might not cut it, depending on how the rest of the country shakes out. Keep rooting for Northern Illinois if you’re OSU. The Huskies may look like a decent win if they finish 10-3 (though that loss to Boston College really hurts). Penn State could enter the rankings this week if it beats Michigan, but that probably won’t be worth it as it would devalue a future win over Michigan.
Iowa: Iowa is pretty much in the same boat as Ohio State. The Hawkeyes have two ranked wins right now, but that might not last past this weekend as Wisconsin and Northwestern face off. Unless we see chaos elsewhere, Iowa is probably also in “undefeated or bust” territory. Hawkeyes fans only need to watch one game a week.
Michigan State: The Spartans got a ton of help from the Pac-12 last week. They probably are currently in control of their own Playoff destiny. Root for Iowa to keep winning, though. Two victories over otherwise-undefeated teams will be all but impossible to turn down. It will also help if TCU upsets Oklahoma and Baylor beats Oklahoma State, which would effectively neutralize the Big 12 as a threat to the Spartans.
Michigan: As we said with the Spartans, two wins over otherwise-undefeated teams, especially in the final two weeks of the season, will be tough to leave out. Michigan wants Iowa to keep winning so that the Hawkeyes can be a top-4 team when the Big Ten Championship Game rolls around. The same Big 12 chaos will help as well. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are the biggest threats there, so losses by those teams would be important. Notre Dame losing would also benefit Michigan.
The Wolverines have other eventual avenues to the Playoff if they win out, but nothing that would open up this week. First and foremost, though, Ohio State needs to beat Michigan State. If the Spartans win that game, they will only need a victory over Penn State to clinch the Big Ten. Distasteful as it must be for Wolverines fans, you’re rooting for the Scarlet and Gray this week.
Wisconsin: Your Playoff hopes are basically done. Root for Purdue over Iowa; if the Hawkeyes win that game, you’re eliminated.
Big 12
Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State is in the best position of the Big 12 schools right now. Win out and you’re in. Lose to Baylor, though, and the ‘Pokes could be in a lot of trouble. They would unfortunately have a maximum of two ranked wins, one of which (either TCU or Oklahoma) would end with three losses. This means Cowboys fans are rooting for Virginia Tech this week. North Carolina losing a game and then winning the ACC would give the Big 12 champion a better resume than anyone in the ACC. Notre Dame and Stanford losing would also help, as we mentioned when discussing North Carolina.
Oklahoma: The Sooners, on the other hand, have the best one-loss resume in the Big 12. Ironically enough, their bad loss works to their advantage. It means that their one-loss resume has three good wins, not just two. They also have a good non-conference win over Tennessee. Speaking of which, the Sooners are rooting for the Volunteers over Missouri to make that win look better. They also need Notre Dame to lose a game to feel safe about getting in.
Interestingly, there are both pros and cons to the Sooners for whoever wins the Oklahoma State-Baylor game. If Oklahoma State wins, it sets up a Bedlam showdown that will feel like a Playoff quarterfinal. On the other hand, if Baylor loses that game, the Bears may fall far enough in the rankings that a loss to TCU knocks them out, leaving Oklahoma with only two ranked wins on the season. A Baylor win would all but guarantee the Bears a year-end ranking, but it would also take some luster off Bedlam. Oklahoma might want to root for TCU against themselves just a little, because the same double-edged sword applies. Beat the Horned Frogs badly enough, and the Sooners look really good. However, TCU may fall out of the rankings. Don’t beat them badly enough, and the Sooners don’t look as great. However, the resume will still have an extra ranked win.
TCU and Baylor: These two schools are in pretty much identical boats right now. They each need to win out. They each need the other to win this week to set up an ultimate showdown on Black Friday (November 27). They also need Notre Dame to lose, though that’s unlikely this week against Boston College. A Stanford loss would also be a great help, which is possible when the Cardinal meet Cal this weekend. They should also root for Virginia Tech this week, as we explained for Oklahoma State.
Pac-12
Stanford: I may be one of the few who thinks that Stanford is still alive, so let me explain how.
If Stanford wins out, its best path to the Playoff is a two-loss North Carolina winning the ACC or a two-loss Florida winning the SEC. Florida losing to Florida Atlantic would be perfect, but it is incredibly unlikely. The Cardinal have to wait until next week for that potential Florida loss. They could also hope for the Big 12 to cannibalize itself, which most easily occurs if both Baylor and TCU win this week.
Of course, the pipe dream is for three-loss Ole Miss to win the SEC. That happens if Ole Miss wins out and Auburn wins the Iron Bowl. Therefore, Stanford has a two-fold reason for rooting for Ole Miss this week; it both makes Florida’s loss look worse and keeps the chances that the Rebels win the SEC alive.
Stanford also wants USC to beat Oregon this week. Yes, it will make the Cardinal’s loss look a bit worse, but it will also make their win over USC look better. If we’ve learned anything from the committee, it’s that whom you beat matters more than whom you lose to. However, the Cardinal want Utah to beat UCLA. It might make the win over the Bruins look even worse, but it keeps alive the possibility of meeting a top-10 Utes team in the Pac-12 Championship Game.
SEC
Alabama: For the Tide, it’s simple. Win out and you’re basically in; lose a game and your chances go way down. A Notre Dame or Clemson loss would pretty much guarantee the Tide control their own destiny, as would losses by both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. However, those are much less relevant. It would take a miracle for someone to jump the Tide if they win out. Just take care of business, Alabama.
Florida: Florida has to be pretty confident about its chances if it wins out, as it would mean adding two more ranked wins to the resume. The Gators would be 100-percent comfortable in controlling their own destiny if Notre Dame or Clemson lose. Those are unlikely this week, but that’s the eventual goal.
Independents
Notre Dame: The Irish were definitely hurt by losses by Stanford and Temple last week. They are rooting for Temple this week to get the Owls back into the rankings. They are also, obviously, rooting for Navy over Tulsa. Most importantly, though, they are rooting for both Oklahoma schools to lose. TCU or Baylor winning the Big 12 won’t have a better resume than Notre Dame. Oklahoma might and an undefeated Oklahoma State will. The Irish could root for Virginia Tech this week and then for North Carolina to beat Clemson. The Irish would clearly have a better resume than Clemson in such a scenario, but it might not be enough to overcome what happened head-to-head. It would certainly make for a fascinating headache for the committee.
AAC
Houston: The Cougars got a little bit of chaos last week. They are still rooting for two Power 5 champions to be as uninviting to the committee as possible. Right now, that means they are rooting for Cal over Stanford and for Virginia Tech over North Carolina. A one-loss (or two-loss) Iowa winning the Big Ten would be perfect for Houston, so Cougars fans should be rooting big for Purdue this week.
Group of 5 Access Bid Rooting Interests
We are adding a section to Rooting Interests this week. We will not go through every team which was mentioned on Bubble Watch, but these are whom the relevant Group of 5 teams should be rooting for this week.
Houston and Navy: If either of these win the AAC, they’re going to a New Year’s Six bowl. That much is obvious. Nothing else matters to them.
Temple: The Owls are in a solid position if they win out, but making sure that the eventual Navy-Houston winner doesn’t lose this week would be a tremendous boost. Also, root for NIU in its #MACtion game next week (I know, it’s technically week 13).
Toledo: The Rockets should feel comfortable in having a better resume than Temple, but they need serious help to even win their conference. Toledo needs Northern Illinois to lose to Ohio next Tuesday night. Otherwise, the Huskies win the division.
Northern Illinois: The Huskies would have a very good resume if not for that awful loss to Boston College. They are still alive if they win the MAC, though. They need a three-loss Temple to be the AAC champion. (In all honesty, their dream is for USF to win the AAC. However, it is highly unlikely that USF could beat Houston or Navy. Temple would at least have a decent chance. Therefore, Northern Illinois wants Cincinnati to beat USF and Memphis to beat Temple.) They also want Toledo to win its final game, so that they can hopefully have a ranked win on their resume. 10-3 Northern Illinois versus 10-3 Temple would be a very, very close resume comparison. Both would also have to worry that 11-2 Western Kentucky could sneak in over them.
Bowling Green: The Falcons want the same AAC outcome as Northern Illinois does, but they also want Toledo to win the MAC West. Picking up a ranked win in the MAC Championship Game will give them a chance… and give the committee a dilemma between them and 10-3 Temple.
Western Kentucky: You want the same exact scenario as Northern Illinois’ best scenario. If the Hilltoppers finish 11-2 in that case, they may very well get the bid. It would be very close among those three teams.
Everyone Else: If you’re still alive in your Group of 5 conference race, you are rooting for USF to win the AAC and for Northern Illinois to lose a game but still win the MAC.
