Three writers that can’t quite agree on anything are ready to sling mud at one another once again in a three part weekly roundtable after a way too long hiatus.. It’s time for Phil Harrison, Bart Doan, and Terry Johnson to solve the world’s problems one first down at a time in the heartland. It’s the weekly B1G Uglies – Part 2 of 3.
Question: Which Division Leader Has the Best Chance to Lose this Week, Iowa or Michigan State?
It’s easy to say, “oh, look, Iowa plays on the road so it’s got to be them.” There’s logic to that thinking. It’s like being at a concert and needing to use the port-o-facilities and saying, “that one stinks more so I’m going to the one next to it.”
There’s nuance though. Sometimes, someone missed the bowl. Sometimes someone clogged the urinal. Sometimes, the lock is broken.
In this case, the caveat is Connor Cook. If he plays, yeah, it’s Iowa. If he doesn’t, yeah, it’s Michigan State. To clarify, I’d expect if you’re the wagering type, the smart play is saying both will win. No matter who is under center for MSU, that front seven will be harrowing for Penn State’s offensive line, which has looked like boxer shorts thrown in a blender at times this season.
The big question is, if Cook doesn’t play, how does the offense look. They weren’t the reason MSU upset Ohio State, even though they got in a nice little groove after OSU went up 14-7. The entire point is that having your backup quarterback in gives you less margin for error than normal, and different situations will be situations possibly faced for the first time. Cook is a game time decision.
Again, let me be clear: both should win. The irony of it is that should Nebraska win, they’d be the only team to defeat both division champs in all of college football. That’s just weird.
Without question, it’s Iowa.
That’s not to say that Michigan State isn’t vulnerable this weekend. After all, the Spartans are coming off arguably the most impressive win of the college football season. Given all that was at stake in that matchup, it wouldn’t surprise me if the team had a bit of a letdown this week.
With that said, I don’t see the Nittany Lions upsetting Michigan State. While PSU has had a pretty good season, they’ve struggled against elite defenses this year, averaging 266.8 yards per game against ranked opponents. That includes a 183-yard effort against Temple in the season opener, in which the Lions gave up 10 sacks, and gained just 52 yards over the final three quarters.
Why did I bring that up? Because Michigan State is one spot better than Temple in total defense, ranking 26th nationally in that category.
In other words: the odds don’t look so good.
On the other hand, Nebraska has an excellent chance to upset the Hawkeyes. Sure, the records suggest that the game shouldn’t be close, but they fail to tell the entire story. The fact of the matter is that the Cornhuskers have already proven that they can beat the best team in the Big Ten, as evidenced by their 39-38 victory over Michigan State. Although that “W” wasn’t exactly pretty, Nebraska put up 499 yards in that contest (the most the Spartans have allowed all year), which suggests that they can move the ball against anyone. If this contest should turn into a track meet, the odds certainly favor the Huskers.
Leave it up to Bart to make an analogy between football and portable toilets, but it doesn’t exactly stink (see what I did there). For me, between the two, I’ve got to go with Terry on this one and lay the best chance of losing at the feet of the Black and Gold. There are several reasons that make sense.
First and foremost, Nebraska has started to finally buy into what Mike Riley is selling and is coming together as a team. It has looked like a far more confident team over the past few weeks. In addition, the ‘Huskers have plenty of close losses to suggest that they can hang with almost anyone, have had two weeks to prepare for this game, and yes, the game is indeed in Lincoln.
Iowa is the better team at least record-wise, but the athletic talents on the opposite sideline this time are a notch above what Iowa has faced most of the season and coud provide some matchup issues. This game is also about bowl-eligibility for the Cornhuskers, and it’s also senior day on a short week that can throw everything out of whack.
The Hawkeyes have beat back the the odds so far this year, and I fear there is a good chance it catches up with them on Friday. I’m not ready to call this a lock of an upset, but don’t be surprised if a steel-cage death match breaks out in The Heroes Game.
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Have a question you’d like Phil, Bart and Terry to discuss? email at the above links or send us a tweet and we’ll think about multiple ways to disagree on the answer. Follow Phil on Twitter @PhilHarrisonCFB, Bart @TheCoachBart, and Terry @TPJCollFootball
