Doing bowl projections, even this late in the season, can lead to a few problems.
First of all, there is always an unfortunate need to prognosticate games. I’m not supposed to be here to guess who will win every game this coming week. I’m here to tell you what the most likely bowl destinations are for all of the relevant teams. To that end, I always like to do my bowl projections “as teams stand now.” The season will change and teams will win or lose games unexpectedly. The best I can do is to tell where every team will end up if the status quo is kept.
Unfortunately, this leads to inaccuracies.
For example, right now Florida might sneak ahead of Ole Miss in the committee’s rankings, which should mean that we would slate Florida for the Sugar Bowl. However, unless the Gators keep it very close against Alabama, Ole Miss will almost certainly move past the Gators. So there is an unfortunate need for me to make assumptions about a few of next week’s games, just to navigate the fine line between an accurate bowl picture and trying to avoid predicting games as much as possible.
To counter this, I will tell you what assumptions I am forced to make and what the outcome will likely be if the games go the other way.
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Another issue is the pool system some conferences now use.
Bowl committees no longer have a say in every bowl game. For example, the SEC can send any one of six teams to its six “pool” bowl games. That makes figuring out where teams will be sent much more difficult, especially as we really have no idea what will motivate conferences most. It could be anything from creating the better matchup for TV ratings, better proximity for fans, or even the matchup the selecting conference is most likely to win. Some matchups are easier to see coming than others (for example, it seems obvious that the Big Ten will want to select Michigan to face Florida in the Citrus Bowl), but sometimes it’s just impossible to tell.
Therefore, aside from making an official projection in the table, I will also point out which teams will be selected for each pool. That way, even if it is impossible to figure out exactly which individual bowl each team will go to, the other options will be much more limited.
Again, remember, these projections are as things stand today, not based on what I expect to happen this weekend. Teams that have accepted bowl bids will be noted in bold.
Bowl Projections:
College Football Playoff
| Bowl | City | Date/Time (EST) | Teams |
| Goodyear Cotton Bowl | Arlington, TX | 12/31/2015 4 PM or 8PM | Alabama vs Oklahoma |
| Capital One Orange Bowl | Miami Gardens, FL | 12/31/2015 4 PM or 8PM | Michigan State vs Clemson |
These CFP projections are obviously assuming the current top four win out, with the exception of Michigan State beating Iowa. If Iowa beats Michigan State, they will get into the Playoff as the No. 4 seed. The Rose Bowl will still probably take the Buckeyes (who haven’t been to Pasadena since the 2009 season), but there is a chance that the Rose will pick Michigan State because of head-to-head. Whichever Big Ten team isn’t in Pasadena will take the Peach Bowl slot I currently have Iowa slated for. (Actually, there is a good chance the Fiesta would want Ohio State against Notre Dame and the Peach could keep Florida State close to home; see where I discuss those bowls later.)
If North Carolina upsets Clemson or Florida beats Alabama, things will get a little dicey. It would be both too wordy to run through all the scenarios here and it would violate my “as they currently stand” rule.
New Year’s Six Bowls
| Bowl | City | Date/Time (EST) | Teams |
| Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl | Atlanta, GA | 12/31/15 12 PM | Iowa vs Houston |
| Fiesta Bowl | Glendale, AZ | 1/1/16 1 PM | Florida State vs Notre Dame |
| Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual | Pasadena, CA | 1/1/16 5 PM | Ohio State vs Stanford |
| Allstate Sugar Bowl | New Orleans, LA | 1/1/16 8:30 PM | Ole Miss vs TCU |
The Fiesta and Peach Bowls are hard to slot right now. The teams are pretty obvious. Unless North Carolina upsets Clemson, Florida State will be the ACC rep in one of those slots. The AAC winner will be another. It would be surprising to see anyone other than Notre Dame and Iowa be the two at-larges. Really, though, those four could meet in either game in any combination.
Houston to the Fiesta Bowl makes the most sense, but I have a feeling the committee will try to keep the Fiesta Bowl happy by not giving them the Group of 5 representative two years in a row (especially when the Fiesta worked very hard towards the end of the BCS to remove its reputation as the bowl that all the non-AQs go to). Florida State to the Peach Bowl is better geographically, but Iowa-Houston and Florida State-Notre Dame feel like the better pair of matchups, so I have a feeling that’s what we’d get. If Temple beats Houston, then Temple would face Iowa or Florida State in the Peach Bowl, but I would expect it to be Iowa to provide better overall matchup quality.
Picking which Big 12 team gets to the Sugar Bowl, assuming Baylor beats Texas, is a mess. The committee gets to choose it, and there is essentially an unbreakable three-way tie. All three went 1-1 vs each other and lost to Oklahoma. I gave the nod to TCU because they just beat Baylor and because Boykin will be healthier by bowl time. Oklahoma State getting blown out so badly also helped make the decision. If Baylor loses to Texas, though, then I would expect Oklahoma State to get the nod over TCU because of head-to-head.
If USC beats Stanford, the Trojans will be in the Rose Bowl and Stanford most likely falls out of the New Year’s Six picture altogether.
All Other Bowl Games
| Bowl | City | Date & Time (EST) | Teams |
| Gildan New Mexico Bowl | Albuquerque, NM | 12/19/15 2 PM | New Mexico vs Akron |
| Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl | Las Vegas, NV | 12/19/15 3:30 PM | Washington State vs BYU |
| Raycom Media Camellia Bowl | Montgomery, AL | 12/19/15 5:30 PM | Western Michigan vs Georgia Southern |
| AutoNation Cure Bowl | Orlando, FL | 12/19/15 7 PM | San Jose State* vs Connecticut |
| R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl | New Orleans, LA | 12/19/15 9 PM | Southern Miss vs Appalachian State |
| Miami Beach Bowl | Miami, FL | 12/21/15 2:30 PM | Cincinnati vs Louisiana Tech |
| Famous Idaho Potato Bowl | Boise, ID | 12/22/15 3:30 PM | Nevada vs Ohio |
| Boca Raton Bowl | Boca Raton, FL | 12/22/15 7 PM | Tulsa vs Toledo |
| San Diego CU Poinsettia Bowl | San Diego, CA | 12/23/15 4:30 PM | Boise State vs Arizona State |
| GoDaddy Bowl | Mobile, AL | 12/23/15 8 PM | Bowling Green vs Arkansas State |
| Popeyes Bahamas Bowl | Nassau, Bahamas | 12/24/15 12 PM | Middle Tennessee vs Northern Illinois |
| Hawai’i Bowl | Honolulu, HI | 12/24/15 8 PM | San Diego State vs Temple |
| St. Petersburg Bowl | St. Petersburg, FL | 12/26/15 11 AM | South Florida vs Western Kentucky |
| Hyundai Sun Bowl | El Paso, TX | 12/26/15 2 PM | Pittsburgh vs USC |
| Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl | Dallas, TX | 12/26/15 2:20 PM | Utah State vs Marshall |
| New Era Pinstripe Bowl | New York, NY | 12/26/15 3:30 PM | Duke vs Indiana |
| Camping World Independence Bowl | Shreveport, LA | 12/26/15 5:45 PM | Virginia Tech vs Missouri* |
| Foster Farms Bowl | Santa Clara, CA | 12/26/15 9:15 PM | Nebraska* vs UCLA |
| Military Bowl | Annapolis, MD | 12/28/15 2:30 PM | Navy vs NC State |
| Quick Lane Bowl | Detroit, MI | 12/28/15 5 PM | Washington vs Minnesota* |
| Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl | Fort Worth, TX | 12/29/15 2 PM | Central Michigan vs Air Force |
| Russell Athletic Bowl | Orlando, FL | 12/29/15 5:30 PM | North Carolina vs Baylor |
| Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl | Tucson, AZ | 12/29/15 7:30 PM | Colorado State vs Arizona |
| Advocare V100 Texas Bowl | Houston, TX | 12/29/15 9 PM | Texas Tech vs Texas A&M |
| Birmingham Bowl | Birmingham, AL | 12/30/15 12 PM | Memphis vs Auburn |
| Belk Bowl | Charlotte, NC | 12/30/15 3:30 PM | Miami (Fl) vs Tennessee |
| Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl | Nashville, TN | 12/30/15 7 PM | Penn State vs Arkansas |
| National University Holiday Bowl | San Diego, CA | 12/30/15 10:30 PM | Wisconsin vs Utah |
| Outback Bowl | Tampa, FL | 1/1/16 12 PM | Northwestern vs LSU |
| Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl | Orlando, FL | 1/1/16 1 PM | Michigan vs Florida |
| TaxSlayer Bowl | Jacksonville, FL | 1/2/16 12 PM | Louisville vs Mississippi State |
| Autozone Liberty Bowl | Memphis, TN | 1/2/16 3:20 PM | West Virginia vs Georgia |
| Valero Alamo Bowl | San Antonio, TX | 1/2/16 6:45 PM | Oklahoma State vs Oregon |
| Motel 6 Cactus Bowl | Phoenix, AZ | 1/2/16 10:15 PM | Kansas State* vs California |
I am assuming that Bowling Green wins the MAC. If Northern Illinois wins the MAC Championship Game, those two teams can be flipped.
There are currently 75 bowl-eligible teams. There is no official word on how the final five teams will be chosen, though there is a prevalent assumption that the five 5-7 teams with the top APR scores will be given bowl bids. Since we really have nothing else to go on until the NCAA makes an official decision sometime this week, that is what we will assume. Those five are, in order, Nebraksa, Kansas State, Missouri, Minnesota, and San Jose State.
There are three teams with 5-6 records who can become bowl-eligible if they win this week. One of them is Kansas State, who should be in anyway whether or not they win. If both Georgia State and South Alabama win this week, then Minnesota and San Jose State will be out of a bowl. If just one wins, then there will be a tie between Minnesota and San Jose State for the spot, which no one has any idea how to break.
Concerns have been raised that 5-7 teams will refuse bowl bids, but we are fortunate that the top APR 5-7 teams are all in positions where they will accept bowl bids. Missouri will want a bowl to give Coach Pinkel one final game. Kansas State will do the same, because any game may be the end of Bill Snyder’s career at this point. Minnesota and Nebraska are both breaking in new coaches and will love the new bowl practices. And San Jose State has been to one bowl in the last nine years; they aren’t in any position to turn down a bid.
Bowl Pools
Some conferences, like the Mountain West and Conference USA, don’t have any real selection order. They just work with their bowl partners at putting together the best matchups, taking into account such considerations as geography, television ratings potential, and potential ticket sales, among others. For these conferences, it becomes much more difficult to accurately project bowl meetings. The best way is to keep an ear to the ground on every team and bowl involved. In the current information age, that is both much easier due to the wealth of information out there and much more difficult due to the incredible amount of information (and misinformation) to sift through. Other conferences, though, have a more streamlined process.
American Athletic Conference
Bowls: Birmingham Bowl, St. Petersburg Bowl, Miami Beach Bowl, Military Bowl, Hawai’i Bowl
Teams: Navy, Memphis, Temple, South Florida, Cincinnati
Atlantic Coast Conference
Tier I Bowls: TaxSlayer Bowl, Belk Bowl, Sun Bowl, Pinstripe Bowl
Teams: Pittsburgh, Miami (Fl), Louisville, Duke
Tier II Bowls: Military Bowl, Independence Bowl, Quick Lane Bowl
NC State, Virginia Tech (not enough eligible teams for third bowl)
Big Ten
The Big Ten system is unique. Basically, the bowl picks a team that they want and asks the conference for that team. The Big Ten can then either agree or send a different team. Also, every Big Ten bowl will have five different teams over six years (the Pinstripe’s goal is to get eight different teams in eight years), so our best criteria is that no one will repeat bowls from where they were last year.
Southeastern Conference
Bowls: Outback Bowl, TaxSlayer Bowl, Music City Bowl, Texas Bowl, Belk Bowl, Liberty Bowl
Teams: LSU, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Georgia, Arkansas, Tennessee
