The new rankings from the College Football Playoff selection committee are out and, for what feels like the first time, there were no real surprises at the top. There was a bit of a debate before the rankings came out whether Stanford would be ahead of Ohio State or not and some were of the opinion (myself included) that Oklahoma would likely jump Alabama. Neither of those happened, though. The committee’s lack of sending statements with those two sends some sort of statements on their own, albeit smaller ones.
Oklahoma could have shown us the value that the committee places on a conference championship. However, Jeff Long told us that conference championships are not factored in until next week. So we have no idea if that status as a “conference champion” could have given Oklahoma a bump over Alabama or Clemson or both. Instead, Oklahoma stayed at No. 3. Moving Oklahoma up also would have sent a message that the Sooners were essentially a Playoff lock, some security I am sure the Big 12 would have appreciated after what happened last year with TCU. The committee did not send that message, though. We are all sure that Oklahoma is a lock for the Playoff. But the committee could have eased the fears that some fans must have about what happens if Stanford blows out USC (say, by a score of 59-0) in the Pac 12 Championship Game. They didn’t, though. Is Stanford jumping Oklahoma a serious concern? That is highly, highly unlikely. But after what happened to TCU last year, I am sure that no one in the Big 12 office will feel completely confident until the final rankings are revealed on Sunday.
Similarly, the committee could have said something about a potential Stanford/Ohio State controversy by bumping the Cardinal over the Buckeyes this week. If you read our Bubble Watch, you would see that Stanford has a better SOS and better wins than Ohio State has. The committee still kept the Buckeyes ahead, which can only be due to some sort of “eye test”. The lack of a jump will make this a nervous weekend for both teams, though it ultimately won’t matter unless someone in the Top 4 loses.
There aren’t really any major surprises if we go farther down the rankings, either. Some might have expected Notre Dame to drop more, but with three ranked wins and two close losses to teams ahead of them, they clearly have a better resume than anyone else behind them. TCU jumping all the way to No. 11 might be a bit of a surprise (and is the highest single-week jump a team has ever made), but it makes sense. Baylor can’t be punished too much for that loss, and TCU’s head-to-head win should be respected. Also, many of the teams TCU jumped lost this past week. That certainly had an impact on where TCU ended up.
The big topic on everyone’s mind, though, is North Carolina at No. 10. The committee did exactly what they had to do to put the Tar Heels in that no-man’s-land where everyone can speculate on whether they can get into the Playoff if they upset Clemson on Saturday. They are nowhere near high enough to be a lock (or even likely to get in), but they are nowhere near low enough to be out. We know that Florida, down at No. 18, won’t have any chance of getting in even if they beat Alabama. But North Carolina at No. 10 is right in that range where it is possible. I personally am of the opinion that the resume is nowhere near good enough (again, see the section on them in Bubble Watch), but the committee has surprised everyone before and we really don’t know how they apply their criteria differently in each situation.
Northwestern had a case for a spot in a New Years Six bowl for much of the season, but with them down at No. 14 it is now all but out of the question, barring a surprising shift next week. Oregon is likewise out of such contention, though they will be heading to the Rose Bowl if Stanford can somehow sneak into the Playoff. With both competitors in the AAC Championship Game appearing in this week’s rankings and none from any other Group of 5 conference showing up, the committee tipped their hand that the AAC champion will be this year’s Group of 5 representative in an NY6 bowl. We all knew this already, but the confirmation is always nice to see.
The one final issue that has to be mentioned is Tennessee sneaking in at No. 25, when the committee has shown no indication that they were considered at all earlier this year. We saw this phenomenon last season too. Minnesota appeared at No. 25 in the final rankings, which conveniently gave Ohio State a third Top 25 win, more than both TCU and Baylor had (it also gave TCU an extra ranked win, but TCU fell behind Baylor because of head-to-head). Tennessee being in at No. 25 adds a ranked win to both Oklahoma’s and Alabama’s resume. If Tennessee keeps that spot next week, it would stave off any potential argument that Stanford (or even Iowa or Michigan State) could have at jumping the Sooners. I don’t think that would be relevant this year, as a Top 4 spot seems locked up for Oklahoma regardless, but still, that extra ranked win can’t hurt. Of course, there isn’t necessarily any evidence of manipulation here. It is very possible that the committee just views Tennessee’s resume favorably. They do have a few good wins and their losses were also close ones to good teams. Still, this is potentially the beginning of a trend, and the committee’s late-season use of that No. 25 spot is something fascinating to keep an eye on in the future.
