For Gregg Marshall and Wichita State, the 2015-2016 season had all the makings of a triumphant procession through the college basketball realm.
Over the past three years, the Shockers have been a top seed in the NCAA tournament and even made a Final Four, but this season’s squad appeared deep and experienced. The Shockers have the talent where it is needed.
However, the dream season has started off like a nightmare for Wichita State. Both point guards are hurt, and November brought a 2-4 record following Sunday’s 23-point blowout loss to Iowa.
Wichita State has now dropped out of the top 25. In addition, the Shox will now likely need to win the Missouri Valley to even get in the Dance. There is only one more opportunity for a quality win on paper in non-conference play on Dec. 12 against Utah, but that will require righting the ship in a hurry.
The other non-conference games are against a surprising 6-1 UNLV, Seton Hall, Nevada, St. Louis, and New Mexico State. There are some possible solid teams there, but certainly no world beaters to help pad the resume.
The good news for the Shockers is what could go bad, pretty much has this season. They have lost close games to Tulsa, USC, and Alabama. All of those are teams that have the ability to be solid this season. The issue is that, to get an at large in the NCAA Tournament, you have to have at least some quality wins in the non-conference as a mid-major. So far, it has been close but no cigar for Wichita State.
Additionally, the Shockers lost all three games in Orlando without the services of team leader and point guard Fred VanVleet. To make matters worse, they lost backup point guard Anton Grady indefinitely with a spinal concussion.
VanVleet is also questionable for Saturday’s game at St. Louis as well. This is a road game that could be a devastating loss (relative to at-large NCAA chances) if he is not able to play.
Without VanVleet, it has left the offensive duties completely in the hands of Ron Baker. Though Baker has been good, averaging 18 points, three assists, and nearly four rebounds per game, he is also averaging 35 minutes per night and shooting under 40 percent from the floor.
In addition, there is not another player averaging more than 8.7 points per game for the Shockers. Only two other players over six points per game. Without the point guard play, simply Wichita State is struggling to score.
One aspect of the season that will either be a saving grace for the Shockers or ultimately doom them is that the Missouri Valley does not appear as strong as last season. While the advantage is clear, the disadvantage is present as well.
If Wichita State can get healthy and play well in the conference, the Shox will still have an opportunity to win it and get into the Dance. They should sport a solid record going, but one which lacks quality wins. However, if they slip up and get upset in the conference tournament, Wichita State would be right on the bubble, and could find itself on the wrong side, with the conference not aiding that strength of schedule at all.
The time is now for Wichita State; the only question is if there has already been too much damage to earn an at-large bid if things improve.
