Complete Bubble Watch and Bowl Projections: December 5

Bubble Watch

The original plan was to have a Bubble Watch here for any teams that would be debated for the final Playoff spot. Well, there aren’t any. The four Playoff teams are locks. I was thinking of presenting Stanford’s resume for comparison against Michigan State’s and Oklahoma’s resumes, but there really is no point. Our four Playoff teams are Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Michigan State. There will be no debate or last-second sliding of teams here. There is no bubble.

Bowl Projections:

College Football Playoff

Clemson will be the top seed and will get the Orange Bowl because of its proximity. There is a chance that Michigan State jumps Oklahoma, but I am thinking that the committee keeps the Sooners and their four ranked wins as the 3rd seed right now. I guess Alabama could also jump Clemson, but that seems unlikely as well.

New Year’s Six Bowls

Ole Miss and Oklahoma State will be locked into the Sugar Bowl. Oklahoma State clinched the Big 12 No. 2 slot and the conference clarified last week that it will use its tiebreaker to determine the Sugar Bowl team. With Florida’s lopsided loss, Ole Miss should be the clear No. 2 from the SEC.

Stanford won the Pac 12, earning a Rose Bowl bid. The Rose Bowl gets to choose who they will take and it seems highly unlikely that they choose anyone other than Ohio State. The Buckeyes haven’t been since 2009 and will bring a huge fan base and TV ratings. Iowa has had a great season and earned an NY6 bowl, but it would be surprising to see them go anywhere but the Rose.

The final four NY6 teams will be Notre Dame, Houston, Iowa, and Florida State. These four can really go into either the Peach Bowl or Fiesta Bowl in any combination.

Houston to the Fiesta Bowl makes the most sense, but I have a feeling the committee will try to keep the Fiesta Bowl happy by not giving them the Group of 5 representative two years in a row (especially when the Fiesta worked very hard towards the end of the BCS to remove its reputation as the bowl that all the non-AQs go to). Florida State to the Peach Bowl is better geographically, but Iowa-Houston and Florida State-Notre Dame feel like the better pair of matchups, so I have a feeling that’s what we’re going to get, even if it involves some decisions that aren’t ideal geographically.

All Other Bowl Games

As I have mentioned several times, bowl projections in the current system are very difficult. There is no defined order in which bowls pick teams, at least for most conferences. The bowls and conferences agree upon teams in pools. None of the power conferences will announce anything official until after the selection committee reveals the NY6 bowls tomorrow, so I will do the best I can to keep an eye on any rumors I can find and to present the process behind my selections. That way, if I can’t get the precise games right, at least you can see where the conferences with major bowl pools (AAC, ACC, and SEC) will go.

Really, the best way to project bowls in the current setup is to keep an ear to the ground of beat writers and writers from local bowls to try to collect as much information as possible before saying who will go where. Teams in bold have been reported as having accepted a bowl bid. Many of the other teams on this list have strong (or weak) rumors as to where they are heading.

Bowl Pools

AAC
Bowls: Birmingham Bowl, St. Petersburg Bowl, Hawai’i Bowl, Miami Beach Bowl
Teams: Memphis, South Florida, Cincinnati, Connecticut

It is shocking that Temple seems to have dropped out of this bowl pool, but that is what everything seems to indicate. It is a weird fall for the Owls, who may be nationally ranked but playing in a bowl game on December 22nd.

ACC
Bowls: TaxSlayer Bowl, Belk Bowl, Sun Bowl, Pinstripe Bowl
Teams: Miami (Fl), Pittsburgh, Duke, Louisville

SEC

Bowls: Outback Bowl, TaxSlayer Bowl, Music City Bowl, Texas Bowl, Belk Bowl, Liberty Bowl

Teams: Tennessee, LSU, Texas A&M, Georgia, Mississippi State, Arkansas