Often when you’re doing either some intentional or non-intentional people watchin’, you come across two people and just turn to the person with you and say, “you know, that couple just looks like they go together.” Other times, you say, “that guy and gal just don’t seem to fit.”
There’s no real nuance to it past that. It’s neither an insult or a compliment for the most part. It’s just an affirmation of what looks like it fits versus what doesn’t. The truth is, it usually ends there and you go onto something else, because there’s no way of peeling back the curtain and finding out if you’re right or wrong.
Really, you probably don’t want to.
Which brings us to Notre Dame and their current college-dating level fling with the ACC. Neither one jumped into it thinking it’s going to work until the end of time, love prevailing over all. It’s mostly superficial … read: financially motivated. From across the mall, snarky people look over and say, “they don’t seem like they’d go out.”
ND exists in a world that wants them to do something that would be monetary suicide for the time being, which is to join a conference.
The bowl payout according to what the Internet will tell you for the Fiesta Bowl is $18 million per team, not counting over $2 million to cover travel costs. The base share for each Power 5 conference is just a shade under $28 million. Each conference receives $300,000 for each school that meets the APR score to compete in a postseason bowl game.
Ohio State, Notre Dame’s Fiesta Bowl opponent, will be splitting that $18 million across the conference. They’ll get their $300,000. ND will share their loot with no one. The Irish will also get a smooth $2.3 million for meeting the APR standard, which is automatic at Notre Dame. Every other independent gets just over $600,000 for doing the same thing.
It makes no sense to join a conference, and a whole lot of cents to not. The kicker is getting a schedule full of teams of any consequence to play you. Seeing what ND drives in television ratings, eyeballs, and ad revenue, that’s never going to be a problem. So what the heck is up with this, then, one would ask?
For one, it puts the ACC in a sticky situation in terms of how it looks nationally in a sport still defined by perception. The conference had the only sub-.500 record against other Power 5 conferences (6-9). That alone looks a bit rough. When you add the games against Notre Dame in there (1-5), that number goes to 7-14.
What that means is, without the benefit of having Notre Dame as a member but still allowing them to pillage the cupboard with wins over their conference teams, the perception of the ACC gets hurt. This hurts the conference if/when it doesn’t have an unbeaten team at the end of the season. The ACC has been the only conference to field an unbeaten regular season team in both years of this playoff thing.
How much is it worth? I suppose that’d depend on some sort of analysis as to what playing ND actually brings in revenue-wise.
All of this seems pretty good for ND though, right? The Irish go in, eat from the pantry, drink the ACC’s beer, maybe suffer a loss (as they have to the eventual champ the last two seasons), and then leave without necessarily having to clean up.
It’s hard to tell what to make of the Irish Situation until it happens. Everyone’s all, “if I see that chuckle-head, I’m going to belt him,” until suddenly, the chuckle-head is there and you have to make good on it.
What’s become clear in two seasons of this format is that the committee holds Championship Weekend in high reverence. Last year, Ohio State had a big showing and leaped two Big 12 teams. This year, Oklahoma, which has looked as impressive as anyone since losing to Texas, fell to number four not playing that title weekend.
OU is a massive name in college football, so that shows you where the committee stands on the issue. Notre Dame is much in the same place, beholden to a schedule that won’t allow that last opportunity to look impressive against a guaranteed (almost) highly ranked foe. Due to the language that the committee is to hold conference championships in high regard, it’s reasonable to wonder if the Irish would need to go unbeaten every year to secure themselves a bid going into the final weekend.
This is a system that is not set up for an easy ride for the Irish simply by winning enough games.
The landscape has changed, too. Everyone is on television now, so that sort of unique pull teams like ND had 20-30 years ago doesn’t exist now. There are no teams that college football “needs” to be at high peak entertainment level. Yes, it would always be the most interesting with four blue bloods every year, but it isn’t necessary for the sport to succeed at high levels on the picture box sets.
It’s hard to buy that the Irish will be treated differently than another one-loss blue blood like OU if they’re a one-loss team staring down the barrel of sitting on the couch while the Big Ten, ACC, Pac-12, and SEC go padding their resumes in the spotlight on national television one last time.
It worked for Ohio State last year. There was no recipient of that dynamic this year, but it got Michigan State a bump up in the rankings.
Maybe things are great at home, but for whatever reason, the ACC and Notre Dame don’t necessarily look made for each other as they hold hands and stroll through the park. College football isn’t set up for this marriage to succeed. Counseling may be needed on this fling.
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