Oklahoma and Clemson square off in the Orange Bowl on New Year’s Eve in what looks like one of the best match-ups of the college football postseason. A deep dive on the two teams reveals just how evenly matched the two teams are.
Here are the big questions you should be asking about the Orange Bowl, along with some attempts to answer them.
In the Russell Athletic Bowl last December, Clemson de-(sweat)pantsed OU. Why should we expect this game to be any different?
I don’t really know where to start.
The biggest differences are in the Sooners’ camp. OU has a new offense, a new quarterback and a new lease on life after capturing the Big 12 championship this year. The Sooners sizzled down the stretch in building a successful case for inclusion in the College Football Playoff.
Clemson has the services of star quarterback Deshaun Watson this year – he sat out last time around with a knee injury. Additionally, Chad Morris left the program prior to last year’s game, and Dabo Swinney put the offense in the hands of co-coordinators Tony Elliott and Jeff Scott. (Clearly, it didn’t hurt the O’s production then or this season.) Swinney isn’t dealing with any disruptions to his coaching staff now.
The bottom line is that both of these teams are better than the versions that squared off last season. That game doesn’t mean much in terms of forecasting this one.
OK, but the Sooners probably have some huge chips on their shoulders after getting bombed that way by the Tigers, right?
I guess? This is the College Football Playoff, so those kinds of motivational gimmicks feel a little silly.
Will OU practice with just a little bit more edge in its sessions leading up to the game? Maybe, but you could just as easily argue that the loss to the Tigers will weigh on the minds of OU players.
Ultimately, it’s tough to see this having a pronounced effect on the outcome of the game.
Who has the upper hand at QB?
You’re in sitting pretty with either of these two taking snaps for your offense.
In terms of reigniting OU’s offense this year, Baker Mayfield played as big a role as anyone in the program. Mayfield adroitly executed offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley’s Air Raid scheme all season. More importantly, he played with a level of control that was missing in his first season as a starter at Texas Tech. His savvy play in the second halves against Tennessee and Baylor were paramount in wins that helped keep the Sooners on track.
Even so, Clemson will have the best player on the field Saturday night that Thursday afternoon — and possibly the best player in the country — in Watson. Watson is a dynamic playmaker who can torch opposing defenses as a runner and as a passer. He took his game to another level in the Tigers’ stretch run of the season, and he has the ability to carry Clemson to two wins in the postseason.
What about the skill players around them?
Too close to call.
Sophomore running back Wayne Gallman combines with Watson to give the Tigers a physical one-two punch bringing the ball out of the backfield. Notably, Gallman is gaining more than 5.5 yards per rushing attempt on first down, which means he’s consistently putting the O in advantageous positions in down and distance.
As the season wore on, Riley figured out how to maximize the Sooner duo of runners Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon. Perine eventually got untracked after a slow start to the year and got back to sledgehammering defenses. Meanwhile, Mixon’s versatility enabled him to test defenses by splitting out wide as a receiver and lining up together with Mayfield and Perine in the backfield.
At receiver, OU star Sterling Shepard will present possibly the toughest challenge that Clemson secondary has faced this season. Shepard has shown he can beat defenses by going deep and by getting the ball in space. Durron Neal and Dede Westbrook proved that they’re solid complements to Shepard this season.
Clemson doesn’t have a Shepard in its receiving corps, but the group as a whole is dangerous. The Tigers’ top three wideouts — Artavis Scott, Deon Cain and Charone Peake — can get deep and beat defenses in small bites off of quick routes. Junior tight end Jordan Legett gave Watson a dependable target with a nose for the end zone, scoring seven touchdowns this season.
What should scare Dabo Swinney about OU?
Explosive plays. No question.
Brent Venables’ defenses generally excel at pressuring opponents and forcing negative plays. The flip side is a penchant for allowing occasional big gains.
The Tigers gave up 18 plays of 40 or more yards in the 13 games they played in the 2015 regular season, ranking 101st nationally. (To be fair, that’s a raw number not adjusted for total plays.) Looking at their performance from an efficiency standpoint, Clemson finished third nationally in Defensive Success Rate, but the Tigers ranked 114th in IsoPPP, a measure of opponents’ explosiveness against a defense.
Translated: Although opposing offenses don’t generate a lot of positive plays against the Tigers, they tend to produce a high percentage of big gains when they do.
OU’s offense has taken advantage of quick-strike opportunities this season, and Mayfield loves going after defenses with the deep ball. It shows up in the efficiency stats, where the Oklahoma offense ranks seventh overall in IsoPPP.
From a numerical point of view, Oklahoma looks like the kind of team that can exploit Clemson’s aggressiveness on D.
OK, but what’s keeping Bob Stoops up at night?
Clemson’s nasty front seven.
Talented defensive end Shaq Lawson leads a group that has demonstrated an ability all season to get into opposing backfields and cause chaos. The Tigers rank No. 7 nationally in Football Outsiders’ Defensive Havoc Rate and No. 6 in Front 7 Havoc Rate.
OU doesn’t see many defenses that stout in the Big 12. While the Sooners’ offensive line progressed as the season wore on, it’s still a green unit that has struggled at times to protect Mayfield and open holes in the running game.
In a game like this, a team can’t just rely on big plays. OU will need to figure out a way to string drives together consistently.
That’s a lot of talk about the matchup between the OU offense and Clemson defense. What about the other sides of the ball?
Clemson has a multi-faceted offense operating behind a strong offensive line that probably doesn’t get the credit it deserves nationally.
If defenses crowd the box to stop the run, Watson and his rangy receivers can make plays over the top. If opponents back off, the Tigers will attack with their quick passing game and physical running.
The good news for the Sooners is that they are accustomed to seeing these kinds of offenses on a weekly basis in the Big 12. Jeff Scott and Tony Elliott won’t throw anything at them that they haven’t seen before.
Coordinator Mike Stoops has developed a defense to combat spread offenses, with versatility and athleticism in the linebacking corps and strong coverage players in the secondary. That enables OU’s defense to roll with opponents who play up-tempo, although Mike would undoubtedly like the ability to sub in and out of his base 3-4 to match the Tigers’ personnel groupings.
Is there an X-factor for either team?
It’s actually the same for both: lackluster special teams.
Neither team has generated many big plays in the return game this year, both on punts and kickoffs. Clemson has struggled in kickoff and punt return coverage. Meanwhile, the Sooners have been worse when it comes to placekicking.
In a close matchup such as this, a special teams mistake or big return could tilt the outcome in favor of one side or the other.
