Given the strength of the American Athletic Conference in 2015, to the diminishment of the other four conferences in the Group of Five, it’s easy to think that the Temple Owls and the Toledo Rockets exist in different places as the Boca Raton Bowl approaches.
The AAC dominated the Group of Five race this season. It had the most contenders (Memphis, Navy, Temple, and eventual champion Houston). It contained a team (Memphis) which had an outside shot at the College Football Playoff had it gone 13-0. Boise State was the preseason favorite, but collapsed along with most of the Mountain West, a conference which endured a terrible year. The Sun Belt was never a serious threat. Neither was Western Kentucky once the Hilltoppers lost to Indiana.
If one Group of Five team outside the AAC had a legitimate chance of earning a New Year’s Six bowl bid, it was Toledo… but as soon as the Rockets lost to Northern Illinois in early November, they were relegated to the margins. As soon as they lost a shot at the MAC title when they fell to Western Michigan on Nov. 27, the Rockets were toast.
Temple, not Toledo, maintained a steadier pace throughout the season. The Owls did stumble against South Florida, but they still held up better in November, winning a division title and then giving Houston a good fight on the road in the first-ever AAC Championship Game. Given the absence of a Temple-Navy game this year in the AAC, it’s reasonable to say that the Owls were the second-best team in the conference. (The fairest verdict is that they shared second place with Navy, behind Houston.)
As said at the beginning of this piece, the strength of the AAC in 2015 supports the contention that Temple exists on a much higher plane compared to Toledo. It’s easy to think of the AAC as college football’s middle class, between the upper-class Power 5 and the lower-class members of the rest of the Group of Five. Toledo, in the MAC, could be seen as an impoverished citizen.
Yet, if you remember your recent college football history, these programs are a lot more similar than many others realize.
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From 2006 through 2009, Toledo failed to win more than five games in a season. The Rockets had stalled and were in need of a reboot. Tim Beckman provided that jump-start in 2010, and Matt Campbell continued what Beckman began. The Rockets have made a bowl in five of the past six seasons, and their one non-bowl season still involved a winning record at 7-5.
If you follow college football closely, you know that Temple’s story over the past 10 seasons is not dramatically different from Toledo’s narrative. However, if you’re a casual fan who hasn’t paid a lot of attention to these schools over the years, you might be surprised by the extent to which the Owls can relate to the Rockets (and vice-versa).
In 2006, when Toledo began its period of drift, Temple had been adrift for quite some time. The Owls hadn’t won more than four games in a season since 1990. Having left the Big East in humiliation, they became an independent and hit rock-bottom. In the first season under a new head coach, Temple finished 1-11. In 2007, the Owls joined a conference… one in which Toledo resided.
Yes, in 2007, Temple joined the Mid-American Conference. The Owls and Toledo both flailed and failed in 2007 and 2008. However, in 2009 — one season before Toledo’s rebirth — Temple came of age.
The coach who led this renaissance? Al Golden. The Owls made a bowl game in 2009 and produced winning seasons the next two years, with Steve Addazio leading Temple back to a bowl in 2011. Like Toledo, Temple produced a winning season during its resurgence (8-4 in 2010), but one which did not lead to a bowl invitation.
Each program grew up and developed in the MAC over the course of the past decade. Each school felt the sting of being excluded from a bowl game when it deserved better. The Rockets and the Owls have moved through multiple coaches but still find themselves in positions of prosperity, relative to most of the Group of Five.
Now, they get to face each other in a postseason event, the Boca Raton Bowl.
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The plot twist in this game is that while Temple coach Matt Rhule has stayed with the Owls for 2016 (and perhaps longer), Campbell smelled greener pastures and gained the open head coaching job at Iowa State. Coaching stability, combined with Temple’s season, the AAC’s quality, and the caliber of Bednarik and Nagurski Award winner Tyler Matakevich, points to a game in which the Owls should call the shots against Toledo.
Yet, Temple since the 2009 season is a story of an improbable football revival. The Owls made two bowl games from 1930 through 2008. They’ve made three bowls in the last seven seasons.
If any school knows something about overcoming the odds, it’s Temple. The Owls are the last team which should take anything for granted heading into a bowl game.
Toledo — a former brother in the MAC — could take this game away from Temple. Vigilance is the Owls’ best friend in the attempt to fend off the Rockets.
