Questions and answers about the state of play in America’s least-functional conference.
Is the Big 12 going to expand?
It sounds that way to people who were at the Big 12 meetings this week. CBSSports.com columnist Dennis Dodd, for one, is talking like it’s a done deal:
“The momentum is there. It’s in the air. I think it’s going to happen.” –@dennisdoddcbs on Big 12 expansion. “It’s inevitable now.”
— Austin Horton (@austinhorton) May 3, 2016
The conference made a big show of commissioning this study from Navigate Research on the best configuration for making the College Football Playoff. This study would seem to support Boren’s position about the Big 12 being “psychologically disadvantaged.” The consultants, not surprisingly, consider their findings “significant.” Would the member schools really go to all that trouble to then just disregard the research?
Of course they would. (Speaking of significant, the Big 12 shot-callers should also accept the reality that any attempt to model the selection process is a fool’s errand.)
Anyway, the guess here is that expansion is more likely than ever now, but not set in stone. Clear as mud.
Is the study a good reason to expand?
Not really, even if it’s conclusions are valid.
Adding a couple schools to enhance your conference’s chances at the playoff should fall way, way down list of reasons to take that step. To be fair, Big 12 commissioner and serial information-delivery flubber Bob Bowlsby acknowledged as much Wednesday in discussing the conference’s options. I really don’t think this is lost on anyone.
So why would the Big 12 seriously consider expansion now?
Most immediately, this is about placating Oklahoma.
While the popular story seems to be that this latest round of posturing started because David Boren got a bug up his ass, it really started with unrest among his constituency. Trust me, if keeping the Big 12 at status quo hurts OU’s chances to make the College Football Playoff, he won’t hear the end of it. Adding to the sense of urgency for OU’s president: He has a new stadium to fill.
Boren got the rug pulled out from underneath him by Larry Scott the last time OU tried to defect. He wouldn’t go this route again if he didn’t think the Sooners had a viable escape route. Big 12 administrators probably realize that.
But OU wants more than just expansion, correct?
Affirmative. According to Boren, Texas ditching the Longhorn Network for a conference network is a must.
Based on what Austin American-Statesman columnist Kirk Bohls wrote Wednesday regarding Texas’ position on its vanity project, UT has no intention of giving up the LHN.
As Stewart Mandel of Fox Sports notes, we can’t assume an ESPN or a Fox would want to get involved with a new Big 12 conference network, either.
What happens if Texas keeps the LHN?
The Big 12 as we now know it will be living on borrowed time.
The Sooners can’t just walk back from Boren’s list of demands for conference reforms. OU would go on the market for a new conference home as soon as it could disentangle itself from the league – which could be a while with the grant of rights in place.
Would Texas then want to leave the Big 12?
I can’t imagine Burnt Orange nation would take kindly to the idea of hanging out in the Big 12 without OU.
Hold on, wouldn’t that mean giving up the LHN?
That’s the irony.
Maybe the ACC, which is all-in with ESPN and doesn’t have a traditional conference network of its own, would accommodate BevoTV. Otherwise, it seems hard to find another conference that will allow the LHN.
How does this all end?
Hell if I know.
