Yesterday, we talked about players to watch in the AAC. Today, we’ll predict which team(s) will be the most pleasant surprise in 2016.
Q: Which team will surprise in the American Athletic Conference this fall?
Joe Dexter
On Twitter @BuckeyeRadio
The land of the American Athletic Conference — a football colony that believes in freedom of offensive philosophy.
The home of the brave — like Navy, the service academy that exclusively believes and dominates through its triple- option attack. Or the Cincinnati air-raid that is protected by Tommy Tuberville’s second amendment right to bare the arm of the Gunner [Kiel].
In the lone star state, SMU and Houston are tearing opposing defenses apart with their power-spread schemes. South Florida is also in that mix with the powerful duo of Quinton Flowers at quarterback and Marlon Mack at running back.
Memphis looks to bring a balanced, yet up-tempo offense under first-year head coach Mike Norvell. Fellow first-year head coach Scott Frost will try to build his offense at UCF into the east coach Oregon Duck show.
With all the fun, is a team that’s following the Temple mold that Matt Rhule has had plenty of success.
Defense is the bell cow that wins you championships, and a pro-style offense, with a manilla playbook, allows teams a chance to win.
UConn might have a basic playbook, but they have the playmakers to execute strongly in 2016.
The Huskies only scored 17 points per game last season. They finished in the bottom 100 in nearly every statistical category.
Yet, there is some promise for a group that returns four starters up front, quarterback Bryant Schirreffs and running back Akeel Newsome — who broke out as one of the most dangerous dual-threat running backs in the conference.
Offensive coordinator Frank Verducci has to get him more involved in the offense this season. The Huskies were 3-0 when Newsome had 20 or more carries.
The problem with that is there were only three games in which Newsome had 20 or more carries.
Yet, as Bart wrote on Wednesday, head coach Bob Diaco has a very young team — all in a position to improve on both sides of the ball as junior starters.
Kevin Causey
On Twitter @CFBZ
SMU is 3-21 over the last two years. In his debut season, Chad Morris managed just two wins as his Mustangs beat North Texas and Tulane.
The defense was simply put, disgusting. This year the Mustangs could be in for more of the same but they will have increased depth. Injuries were a major issue for the Mustangs defense last season. Injuries have afforded several players with more time on the field. The Mustangs hope this will help their defense in 2016.
The good news? The offense will be very good. QB Matt Davis is now a senior. He’s taken some lumps but now is the season that he puts it all together. Xavier Jones and Braeden West also return in the backfield for what could end up being a pretty good running attack for the Mustangs. They lost 17 fumbles in 2015, but don’t expect that to happen again. Turnover margin was a huge issue for them in 2015 but with more familiarity with the office should come better ball security.
SMU is going to be very young again in 2016 but they won’t make some of the same mistakes they made in 2015. This team will grow as the season goes on. Don’t expect them to win the conference but they will fight for bowl eligibility and after the last two years that will be a welcome result.
Eli Hershkovich
On Twitter @EliHershkovich
Tulsa isn’t the trendy pick, but I’ll take the Golden Hurricane.
Last season, three statistics spelled out first-year head coach Philip Montgomery’s group and its 6-7 mark. The Golden Hurricanes ranked No. 13 in the nation in total offense, racking up over 507 yards per game. Yet, the defense couldn’t provide nearly as much success, finishing No. 126 out of 128 programs in yards allowed per game (536.6 yards). Additionally, Tulsa scored at least 34 points in 10 of 13 contests but allowed opponents to post at least 30 points in 10 of 13 matchups.
Looking ahead towards Montgomery’s second season, defensive coordinator Brian Norwood must improve his unit, which allowed 239 yards per game on the ground a campaign ago. In order to prevent open lanes, senior linebackers Matt Linscott and Trent Martin, who combined for 211 tackles and seven sacks, should be unleashed at the line of scrimmage.
Offensively, senior quarterback Dane Evans and his teammates could post prolific numbers again in 2016 but have to do so without Keyarris Garrett. The wide receiver compiled 1,588 yards and eight touchdowns in 2015. Yet, Evans, coming off a season with 25 touchdowns and just eight interceptions, along with ranking No. 7 in the country in passing yards per game (333.2 yards), still possesses weapons.
For one, senior Keevan Lucas posted 409 yards and five touchdowns in the first three and a half games of Tulsa’s previous campaign, but he watched from the sidelines the rest of the way after tearing the patella tendon in his right knee against Houston. If Lucas stays healthy in ’16, the 5-foot-10 wideout might turn into Evans’ top target, as well as giving his team a likelier shot at contending in the American Athletic conference.
Terry Johnson:
On Twitter @SectionTPJ
Without question, it’s Central Florida.
There’s no way to sugarcoat it: the Knights were absolutely awful last year. UCF’s offense couldn’t move the ball against anyone, ranking 102nd in the country in passing offense, 126th in scoring, 127th in rushing offense, and dead last in total offense. The defense wasn’t much better, finishing 114th nationally in total defense and 118th in scoring defense.
Not surprisingly, the Knights lost every game on their schedule, including a pair of painful defeats against Florida International and Furman.
Things will be different this season under the leadership of new head coach Scott Frost. While I don’t think UCF is going to contend for the AAC title this year, it was evident in spring practice that this year’s offense is going to be much better than it was a year ago. The offensive line – which started as many as three freshman at times last season – will be one of the most improved units in the country this fall.
Defensively, the Knights should also show plenty of improvement. New defensive coordinator Erik Chinader told the Orlando Sentinel the team will play an aggressive style of defense this fall. While playing aggressively could result in giving up some big plays, it also will create more negative plays and turnovers. That’s something that UCF desperately needs after finishing 114th in both takeaways and sacks.
Given this improvement on both sides of the ball, the Knights’ record will definitely post a few more wins this fall. The team might not qualify for a bowl, but it will win enough games to make people think, “wow, I didn’t see that coming.”
Bart Doan
On Twitter @TheCoachBart
So Tulane went 2-10 last season and did nothing particularly well, lost their two-year starting quarterback when he transferred to Nebraska, returns no starting wide receivers and only two offensive linemen, and yep, they’ll be surprising the league. Why?
One name: Willie Fritz.
Fritz compiled a 17-7 record in two years at Georgia Southern, including a 8-0 conference season in the Sun Belt in the Eagles’ first year at the FBS level in 2014. That’s sort of not supposed to happen, ever. In both years, Fritz’ teams led the nation in rushing. The upside there is that the Green Wave returns four capable running backs, led by junior Dontrell Hilliard.
Offensive line coach Alex Atkins will have the task of improving a line that will be counted on when it comes to offense, but let’s be honest … if you can roll into FBS with an FCS team and win nine games right off the bat, competing immediately at that level.
Fritz’ past includes stops at Central Missouri, where he led the team to its first postseason game in 32 years during his tenure, and Sam Houston State, where he led the Bearkats to their lone unbeaten season in school history. The defense returns seven starters and they can reasonably get off to a sharp start, with Wake Forest, Southern, UL-Lafayette, and Massachusetts in four of their first five.
The odds are with a quick turnaround.
