Thankfully, college football season is finally here. The first week of the 2016 schedule is loaded with great games, including four matchups between top 25 teams.
Here’s a list of thoughts, observations, and stats to keep an eye on this weekend.
- All eyes will be on Florida State quarterback Deondre Francois this weekend as the ‘Noles face off against an Ole Miss defense that finished in the top 25 in both interceptions and yards per attempt last season. It’ll be interesting to see whether Jimbo Fisher relies on Francois to beat the Rebels through the air or leans on Dalvin Cook and the running game.
- The argument for choosing to rely on the ground attack: Cook was the best running back in the country on second down last year, rushing 75 times for 718 yards, with 34 of those carries resulting in first downs.
- On the other hand, Ole Miss held its opponents 3.33 yards per carry last year, and ranked eighth in the country in tackles for a loss.
- Another intriguing matchup to keep an eye on is Chad Kelly versus the Seminole secondary. Kelly was one of the nation’s top passers last year, averaging 310.9 yards per game and 8.8 yards per attempt. However, the FSU D was one of the best in the country against the pass last year, allowing just 6.4 yards per attempt.
- Will a “mid major” crash the College Football Playoff this season? We’ll find out when Houston plays Oklahoma at NRG Stadium. If the Cougars are able to pull off the upset, I firmly believe that they’ll make the field, even if they lose a game along the way.
- Of course, that requires stopping Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield, who led the Big 12 in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and touchdown passes last season. That’s a tall order for the UH secondary, which ranked 116th nationally against the pass in 2015.
- Even though the Cougar defense gave its share of yardage, it made plays when it needed to. Houston led the nation in turnovers gained last year, intercepting 21 passes (7th nationally) and recovering 14 fumbles (3rd).
- As much press as the Oklahoma offense receives – and rightfully so – it was the defense that made the team so successful last year. The Sooners D ranked 15th nationally in yards per play, 13th in turnovers, and 8th in sacks. It also held up well in the red zone, allowing just 23 touchdowns in 43 red zone trips.
- With that said, Greg Ward will be toughest challenge that the Oklahoma defense will face all season. Ward is the toughest quarterback in the nation to defend because he can beat you in so many different ways. He’s a precision passer, ranking ninth in the country in completion percentage, while averaging 8.2 yards per attempt. At the same time, he’s also an explosive runner, running for 1,108 yards and 21 touchdowns. It’ll be interesting to see how the Sooner D – which ranked 24th nationally in fewest long scrimmage plays last year – fares against Ward, who was second among quarterbacks last year with 44 long plays from scrimmage.
- Although most of the media attention heading into Saturday’s contest was about Greyson Lambert earning the starting quarterback position, the real key to success for the Bulldog running game. The Dawgs were a completely different team after losing Nick Chubb last season, cracking the 400-yard barrier just twice in his absence. Now that he’s back at 100%, the UGA offense will be much better than it was a year ago.
- That’s not exactly the news that the UNC defense wanted to hear after allowing 1,272 yards rushing in the final three games of the 2015 season.
- Yet, the Tar Heels have enough firepower to win a shootout. Sure, Marquise Williams is now in the NFL, but Mitch Trubisky played well when given the opportunity last year, completing 40 of 48 passes for 555 yards and six TDs. With Elijah Hood (1,463 yards rushing), Mack Hollins (30 catches, 745 yards), and Ryan Switzer (55 catches, 697 yards) returning, this year’s offense should be every bit as potent as it was last year, when it led the nation with 7.28 yards per play.
- It doesn’t matter whether Cooper Bateman or Blake Barnett that receives the majority of the snaps on Saturday, because the Alabama running game holds the key to victory on Saturday. In USC’s six losses last year, the team gave up an average of 192.33 yards per game. The Crimson Tide averaged 192.14 yards per game against ranked opponents last season.
- The Trojans can win this game if the offense makes big plays like it did last year. USC ranked 23rd in the country last season with 223 plays of 10+ yards or longer. That stat is important because the two teams that had the most success against Alabama last year – Clemson and Ole Miss – both averaged more than six yards per play.
- I’m disappointed that Toledo – Arkansas State isn’t getting more attention at the national level, since it’s one of the best games of the weekend. The Rockets were one of the most pleasant surprises in college football last year, upsetting Arkansas to start the season, while closing out the 2015 campaign with an impressive win over Temple. Similarly, the Red Wolves are the gold standard for excellence for the Sun Belt, winning or sharing four of the last five conference championships.
- Keep an eye on the battle between the UT offensive line and the Arkansas State front seven. The Rockets were one of the better O-Lines in the country last year, ranking 22nd nationally in yards per carry and second in sacks allowed. Yet, the Red Wolf front seven held Toledo’s ground game in check last season, limiting them to just 3.67 yards per carry. ASU is considerably deeper on the defensive line this year, which will make already solid matchup even more intriguing.
- Yet, Toledo’s defense holds the key to victory. The Rocket D dominated last year’s meeting, limiting the Red Wolves to just 209 yards of total offense (-14 rushing), while forcing five turnovers.
- It’s worth noting that Arkansas State played last year’s contest with a backup quarterback, who was making his first career start. Pittsburgh transfer Chad Voytik (2,233 yards, 61.3% completion percentage) gives the Red Wolves a veteran presence under center, which should negate that advantage this year. Backup quarterback Justice Hansen – who’s scheduled to enter the game on the third series – also has collegiate experience, completing 77.3% of his passes at Butler Community College last season.
- Don’t forget about Toledo quarterback Logan Woodside, either. Arkansas State certainly won’t, after he completed 21-of-27 passes for 176 yards in the GoDaddy.com Bowl in 2015.
