The much-hyped Week 1 lived up to its expectations and then some, providing upsets and close games galore. It’s still too early to really map out a Playoff picture, but Week 1 does contain a lot of jockeying for position. It’s always too early to tell what the results from this week will mean, but the basics always stay true. Those teams that survived, no matter how ugly they looked, will not be affected by this as long as the season turns out successful. Tennessee needed overtime to beat Appalachian State? TCU struggled for three quarters against an FCS school? Florida only led UMass by three at the start of the fourth quarter? None of that matters. If those teams run the table, or even go 12-1 (or 11-1 in TCU’s case), they will be in the College Football Playoff. Part of the nature of the CFP and its selection committee is that teams must impress and make sure that voters appreciate them. But, sometimes, an equally-important part of the nature is just to survive and advance.
Teams Eliminated from College Football Playoff Contention
It’s still early to eliminate teams from the Playoff, really, as just about anything can happen over the course of a 12-game season. My rule about eliminating teams is that it’s not my place to predict games; a team is only eliminated if it has no chance at the CFP–even if it runs the table. Most Power 5 teams will have a chance at the Playoff with two losses and a conference championship, though it may take some chaos to get there. So, with just one game played, the only teams that I feel comfortable eliminating are Group of 5 teams that have suffered losses or P5 teams that lost to an FCS team. We will whittle our way down to about six or seven teams (only four if we’re really lucky) by the end of conference championship weekend. But we will do it slowly. The goal is to accurately eliminate each team while never eliminating a team too early–I don’t ever want to have to “un-eliminate” a team.
AAC: Temple, Tulane
ACC: Virginia
Big 12: Iowa State
Big Ten: none
Conference USA: FIU, Charlotte, North Texas, Rice
Independents: UMass
MAC: Buffalo, Bowling Green, Kent State, Miami (Oh), Ohio, Northern Illinois
Mountain West: Colorado State, Fresno State, Hawaii, San Jose State
Pac 12: Washington State
SEC: none
Sun Belt: Arkansas State, Georgia State, Louisiana-Lafayette, New Mexico State
After one week, we have eliminated 24 teams, though many more are on the cusp. I did not put Appalachian State or Louisiana Tech on this list. Neither of those teams will make the Playoff, but with a close loss to an (as of now) undefeated SEC school and another game against a P5 team, a case can be made if either one runs the table from here. I will eliminate both of these teams as soon as Tennessee and Arkansas lose a game. There are also some G5 teams (like New Mexico, Eastern Michigan, and Toledo, among others) who do not play tough enough schedules to earn a Playoff bid even with an undefeated season, but it doesn’t hurt to wait until they lose a game or until later in the season to actually eliminate them.
Houston States Its Case
The talk of the early season, as much as fans are focusing on many topics, has been whether the Houston Cougars will be able to bust their way into the Playoff conversation. Before the 2014 season, when the Playoff first started, I offered an opinion based on rankings during the BCS era about what a G5 team would need to do to be in the Playoff conversation. In short, consecutive ranked seasons and quality non-conference wins are a must. The ultimate dream is either a win over a one-loss P5 champion or two undefeated teams playing each other in a Go5 conference championship game. Houston gets a check on the consecutive ranked seasons and the quality non-conference win. The Cougars may even live the dream of beating an otherwise-undefeated P5 team.
It is way too soon to guess if this will be enough for Houston to earn real Playoff consideration. If Boise State during the Kellen Moore era is any indication, the Cougars will be severely punished if they allow any lower-tier AAC teams to even stay close. Style points matter, in a big way, to a team in Houston’s position right now. A loss would obviously end the dream, but even underwhelming wins could push Houston out of the top four.
Most importantly, though, it’s impossible to discuss Houston in the abstract. If four P5 conferences have undefeated or very good 1-loss champions, Houston will be stuck back at No. 5. (A 13-0 Houston resume matched up with, say, a 12-1 Duke team would be a fascinating comparison.) That will always be the nature of this. Unless there is an extreme example, the only real chances the G5 will get at the Playoff is when the P5 conferences leave an opening. If Week 1 was any indication, that opening may actually happen this year. But for Houston and its fans, a spot in the Playoff is just as much about watching the rest of the country as it is about watching their own team.
Ranked Teams Underwhelm
A definite trend that we saw this week was ranked teams, including potential Playoff contenders, underperforming against weaker competition. While this might tell us a lot about the ability of the teams in question to win enough games to get into playoff consideration, it really doesn’t have any impact in whether or not these teams will make the College Football Playoff. Tennessee, Michigan State, TCU, and Florida all showed serious flaws against lower-tier teams. Tennessee won’t win against SEC teams if the Volunteers get beaten in the trenches as badly as Appalachian State beat them. Florida barely mustered 100 rushing yards against UMass; how will they Gators run against SEC defenses? TCU gave up 41 points to South Dakota State; can the Horned Frogs even slow down any Big 12 offense? Michigan State couldn’t find any offensive rhythm against Furman.
These are all questions that these teams must answer to put themselves in the Playoff conversation. But, if they do answer them, no one will be pointing to Week 1 struggles as a reason to exclude anyone from the Playoff. Teams improve or get worse as the season goes on. No team is static. If any of these had come out as losses, the story would be very different right now. Continued struggles will also eventually play a role to the selection committee. If any of these teams struggle every week against inferior competition but manage a few good wins and pull off a 1-loss season, they will definitely be behind better-looking one-loss teams in the pecking order. Every team can have a bad game or two, though, as long as that game stays in the win column. If the struggles are consistent (like Florida State in 2014), the committee will take notice and punish a team for it. As long as it’s just once in a while, it won’t have any real bearing on the rankings moving forward.
Big Questions for the SEC
Another major talking point in the college football world this week is that the SEC lost six non-conference games in Week 1–and didn’t look good in a few other wins. On the other hand, Alabama looked pretty much unbeatable in running (and throwing) over USC. So what position is the SEC in right now?
Well, losing non-conference games is never a good thing. Every non-conference loss makes every win over those teams look less valuable and every win by those teams means a team with an extra loss is higher in the conference standings. Also, in the current CFP selection committee era where perception of strength of schedule matters far more than any actual SOS metric, having the country talk about the conference being “down” will hurt every team in the conference.
Luckily for the SEC, however, is that the committee has shown in the past to not punish teams for losses to quality teams–especially when those losses are close and especially in non-conference games. In fact, based on how the committee voted several times last year, Auburn’s close loss to Clemson probably helped its reputation more than it hurt it. The losses by Ole Miss, LSU, and Missouri were also respectable losses to respectable teams. If the committee holds true to its precedents, those won’t hurt too much either. The losses by Kentucky and Mississippi State will hurt, though. If either of those two wins any major games in the SEC, their non-conference losses will put a bit of a blemish on the conference as a whole.
What to Look For in Week 2
Compared to the Week 1 schedule, Week 2 is certainly expected to be a boring week. Of course, anything can happen on any given Saturday, but very few games this weekend will be circled on our calendars. There are still a bunch of contests between P5 teams, including the renewal of the Penn State versus Pittsburgh rivalry and Tennessee vs Virginia Tech at Bristol Motor Speedway. The Holy War between BYU and Utah will be played again. And Boise State and San Diego State, two very good Mountain West teams who are flying well below the radar, will play Pac-12 schools and get a chance to remind the country that Houston isn’t the only G5 team who can play quality football.
Even if there aren’t as many games that we expect to look forward to, college football always finds a way to surprise us. It might be relevant to keep an eye on teams that struggled in Week 1, though — like Florida, TCU, and Tennessee — to see if or how they improved in the past week. And we’ll also get a chance to eliminate a lot more G5 teams; it’s always fun to whittle the field down more.
