All everyone is talking about right now is the Big 12 and whether the conference is out of the Playoff already. Well, that talk is a little bit premature, but that doesn’t mean that things look good for the conference right now.
The Big 12 has a serious problem. With only three non-conference wins against Power 5 level schools (West Virginia over Missouri, Texas over Notre Dame, and Oklahoma State over Pittsburgh), the conference as a whole doesn’t have much to point to in the way of quality wins. Also, the conference has a slew of losses by the potential contenders, though we can debate as to whether the committee will pretend that Oklahoma State didn’t lose to Central Michigan. The coupling of these two facts means that not only does the conference currently not have any teams that the nation respects (the highest-ranked Big 12 team in this week’s AP Poll is No. 16 Baylor), but the conference teams will also have a hard time earning any quality wins in conference play.
All is far from lost, however. We only have to remember back to 2014, when many were declaring the Big Ten out of the Playoff picture this early. Ohio State then went on an incredible streak and earned a spot in the CFP. The Big 12 still has quality, talented teams. Baylor could run the table. Texas could find its rhythm on defense and dominate from here. Oklahoma is still the conference’s most talented team–and a 10-2 Oklahoma team on a nine-game winning streak would lead to a debate about how much to hold the best non-conference schedule in the country against the Sooners.
We could see chaos play out in one or more of the other leagues. We could see a conference championship game upset or two that throws everything out of whack. The Big 12 is far from dead, but the league is certainly much closer to being out of the Playoff picture than any other league is right now.
Week 3 CFP Implications: Teams Eliminated from College Football Playoff Contention
It’s still early to eliminate teams from the Playoff, really, as just about anything can happen over the course of a 12-game season. My rule about eliminating teams is that it’s not my place to predict games; a team is only eliminated if it has no chance at the CFP–even if it runs the table. Most Power 5 teams, at least at this stage of the season, will have a chance at the Playoff with two losses and a conference championship, though it may take some chaos to get there. Until now, I have been eliminating any P5 team that lost to an FCS school but I have to make an exception this week (more on that later). We will whittle our way down to about six or seven teams (only four, if we’re really lucky) by the end of conference championship weekend. But we will do it slowly. The goal is to accurately eliminate each team while never eliminating a team too early–I don’t ever want to have to “un-eliminate” a team.
AAC: Temple, Tulane, UCF, UConn, SMU, Tulsa, Cincinnati, East Carolina
ACC: Virginia
Big 12: Iowa State, Kansas
Big Ten: Northwestern
Conference USA: All teams have been eliminated
Independents: UMass, BYU, Notre Dame
MAC: Only Toledo, Western Michigan, and Central Michigan are not yet eliminated
Mountain West: Only Air Force, Boise State, and San Diego State are not yet eliminated
Pac-12: Washington State
SEC: none
Sun Belt: Only Georgia Southern is not yet eliminated
I am only eliminating six teams this week, bringing the total of eliminated teams up to 58. There are a few reasons for the lack of eliminations this week. Usually, I will eliminate two-loss Power 5 teams that can’t really earn enough respect even with a string of wins to end the season (for example: Illinois, Kentucky, and Boston College, just to name a few). However, due to the Big 12’s troubles, I’m leaving just about everyone alive. The Big 12 is far from dead, but the likeliness of the Big 12 having no teams close to the rest of the field does mean that just about any other two-loss P5 champion has a good chance of getting in.
You will notice, however, that I did eliminate Notre Dame. The Irish schedule is not looking to be up to the par that it usually is. Notre Dame only plays two more ranked teams as of now, with no real other contenders among the rest of the schedule. Miami (FL) and Stanford do have the potential to be real quality wins, but that’s it. That won’t be enough to get a 10-2 Notre Dame team into the Playoff. Notre Dame is eliminated.
What to do with Iowa
My general rule has been to eliminate all teams that lose to an FCS team. The logic is clear. If a team can’t beat an FCS team, there is no way it can be the best team in FBS. Iowa–or, more accurately, North Dakota State–has forced me to rethink that assumption this week. The logic is still there and the assumption still makes sense. However, I have now been forced to make one exception.
North Dakota State has won five consecutive FCS titles and has been better (according to Sagarin and other computer rankings) than several P5 teams in some of those years. The Bison have won six straight games against FBS teams. They can compete on an FBS level–and the voters know this. Iowa is still ranked in the Coaches’ Poll, signaling that the voters still respect the Hawkeyes even after that loss. The only reason to do that is if the voters know that losing to NDSU isn’t bad. The AP poll actually gave NDSU 74 votes, making it the highest-ever ranked FCS team. NDSU is a quality team, and the voters know it. It’s very likely that the committee will know it too. Therefore, this is the one FCS loss that isn’t disqualifying for a team’s Playoff hopes. In fact, I could probably go so far as to say that if Iowa runs the table–beating Nebraska, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan, along with Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game–it would be almost guaranteed to see the Hawkeyes in the Playoff.
Big Week for the Big Ten
Regardless of Iowa’s bad loss, Week 3 was huge for the Big Ten. I said before the season that this would be the week that decides how the country would view the Big Ten. Is the conference back on top? Are the contenders legitimate Playoff threats? Or is the league still a step behind the other power conferences?
The Big Ten answered that, emphatically. In the five games against P5 competition (including Notre Dame), the Big Ten went 5-0. Sure, Illinois got embarrassed by Western Michigan, who is now 2-0 against the Big Ten West this year. Still, the week was a resounding success for the conference, which now has five teams viewed as legitimate Playoff contenders. Everyone expects the Big Ten East champion to be in the Playoff race. Now we have Nebraska and Wisconsin in the West as well. Iowa is still ranked in the Coaches’ Poll and a contender, relatively-embarrassing FCS loss notwithstanding. The Big Ten is enjoying a place towards (or maybe at) the top of the CFB conference hierarchy right now. That can always change as the season progresses, but the Big Ten is shaping itself up during nonconference play to put a team in the Playoff.
Louisville Ascending
Any review of this week’s action would be incomplete without mentioning how Louisville shook up the national picture. Not only did the Cardinals forcefully place themselves in the Playoff conversation, they also made us wonder about Florida State. The Seminoles still have a strong schedule and could win the ACC. However, in the two years of the Playoff, the largest regular-season margin of defeat by any participant was 14 (Ohio State to Virginia Tech in 2014). This is not necessarily because the committee holds blowout losses against teams; teams that lose games by 40 points are rarely sitting in a position to have a Top 4-worthy record at the end of the season. Still, we have to wonder how a team can ever claim to be the best with a loss that one-sided on its resume. We will see how the committee judges Florida State if the Seminoles beat Clemson and are 7-1 when the initial rankings come out. It is way too early to think that this blowout loss disqualifies them from the Playoff; it certainly is something logical that we can wonder about, though.
Louisville, meanwhile, is flying high in just about everyone’s estimation. Lamar Jackson is currently the Heisman favorite and the Cardinals are up to No. 3 in the national polls. Clemson in two weeks is a huge game, but the schedule looks otherwise pretty clear.
Until November, that is. It is hard not to look forward to a Thursday night showdown with Houston on November 17th. If Houston fans are concerned that Oklahoma’s big loss to Ohio State will hurt the Cougars’ resume, they need not be concerned. If both teams stay true to form, Houston against Louisville could be a de facto Playoff play-in game, final two weeks of the season pending. I generally don’t like looking so far ahead because tons of unexpected things happen over the course of the season, but it’s pretty impossible to not wonder about that game at this point.
What to Look for in Week 4
Starting next week, we will really be able to begin eliminating Power 5 teams in earnest. Ole Miss puts its slim Playoff hopes on the line when it hosts Georgia. Looking back, Ole Miss did jump out to huge leads over both Florida State and Alabama. If the Rebels struggle against Georgia, we may have to re-think just how good those two teams are. Florida State already gave us cause for concern when it got blown out this week. Have we been giving Alabama too much credit for beating up on an out-of-sorts USC team? Probably not, but this game will give us an indication if we have.
Wisconsin against Michigan State is big for the Big Ten. Ironically enough, Wisconsin’s absurd cross-divisional schedule could hurt the conference. It will add losses to contenders that didn’t necessarily have to happen. Big Ten fans probably need to see Wisconsin lose all three to help protect the perception of dominance by the Michigan/Michigan State/Ohio State trio in the East. If Wisconsin can upset one of those three, it probably means seeing at least a two-loss West Division champion (unless Nebraska can run the table against everyone not named Ohio State or upsets the Buckeyes). That’s not a particularly bad thing, but it’s not ideal for the conference that many view as the best in college football right now.
While we all are expecting Houston to take the Group of 5’s New Years’ Six slot, check on Western Michigan against Georgia Southern. The MAC has an outside chance of getting in that NY6 bowl if Houston slips up and we see chaos in the Mountain West. A win here by WMU would look very good for the league–and would erase some of the Big Ten’s embarrassment after Northwestern and Illinois lost to WMU. And, of course, there are several big SEC games to keep an eye on. None of those games may have immediate implication, but games like Texas A&M/Arkansas and Florida/Tennessee will have real consequences down the road–it’s just too early in the season for us to guess precisely what they will be yet.
