Instead of talking about Washington, Michigan, or Clemson this — this week’s big winners — to start, I’m going to lead with some of this week’s biggest losers. The Stanford Cardinal, in a span of just three quarters, went from being a solid Playoff prospect to being on the outside looking in. How did such a change happen so rapidly?
The Pac-12, which was expected to be a solid and even conference, isn’t quite shaping up that way. The North, with the exception of Stanford and Washington, seems to be the weaker division. Every other team in the North already has at least two losses, including at least one out of conference. Oregon has already lost three games and looks to be in serious danger of missing a bowl for the first time since 2004. Washington State lost to an FCS school (and to Boise State). Oregon State looks atrocious. Cal has looked good, but the Bears have already picked up two losses. Notre Dame, the longtime highlight of Stanford’s non-conference schedule, is not looking like a quality opponent this year. Stanford’s problem is now two-fold. The Cardinal need Washington to lose two conference games — a definite possibility, but not likely. The much more pressing issue is that, as of now, Washington is the only ranked team on Stanford’s schedule. Would a 12-1 Pac-12 champion with zero ranked wins get into the Playoff? Maybe this year, with the Big 12’s bigger problems, but it’s dicey at best.
For the other two Top 10 losers this week, Louisville is in an interesting situation. The loss is not a bad one, and the committee has rewarded close losses to top teams in the past. Also, it’s hard to see another loss on the schedule aside from Houston. If the Cardinals win out, they will have two good ranked wins (assuming that Florida State can right the ship from here), one really good loss, and a whole lot of mediocre wins (and that’s putting it nicely). Without a conference title, is that enough for a Playoff berth? I would think not, especially once we start seeing all of those wins against the bottom teams show up in the Bubble Watch (which will start later in the season, but here’s one from last year just to give an idea). The committee seemed, last year at least, to give teams with close losses to good teams a bump, though, so you never know.
Of the three losers, Wisconsin is clearly in the best shape. The Badgers control their own destiny with that schedule. Heck, if Wisconsin loses to Ohio State and runs the table from there, it would be very difficult to argue against the Badgers. I hate using game time-rankings (I often call them the biggest lie in sports) once more games have been played, but the committee has mentioned them in the past so presumably it (or at least some members) finds them meaningful. Wisconsin could play as many as six Top 10 game-time ranks opponents this season, which is honestly just absurd. Going 4-2 in those games, including revenge on Ohio State or Michigan in the Big Ten Championship Game, would earn a heck of a lot of respect from the committee.
What about the winners?
From a Playoff analysis point of view, there is a lot less to say about the teams who won they big games this week than the ones who lost. Michigan, Clemson, and Washington all control their own destinies, obviously. Michigan and Clemson are each currently in a position where they could drop a game — so long as it doesn’t cost a division or conference championship — and still be in a good position to make the Playoff. There won’t be many contenders with a better resume than two-three Top 25 wins and a conference championship, even with a decent loss sprinkled in.
It’s less clear whether Washington has that luxury, though. If Houston doesn’t run the table, that means that there likely won’t be four teams with a better resume than a 12-1 Washington team, considering the Big 12’s current position. The Huskies played a very weak non-conference schedule, though, and as we mentioned above there won’t be many chances for ranked wins in the Pac-12. Washington’s resume will have a decent overall SOS and a bunch of Top 40 wins, but I don’t know if that will be enough, depending on what the resumes of teams like Louisville and the Big Ten East runner-up look like, even if they aren’t conference champions. Would the committee take Louisville with two Top 25 wins and a 6-point loss to 13-0 Clemson — or Ohio State with four Top 25 wins and a loss to 13-0 Michigan — over 12-1 Washington? I would honestly think it’s not unlikely.
One final note of caution for Washington. If the Huskies do lose a game, make sure it’s not to Washington State. Boise State shouldn’t, and almost definitely won’t, be a factor in this year’s Playoff race. But the Huskies really don’t want to let Boise State even enter the conversation, which a loss to Washington State would do.
Week 5 CFP Implications: Teams Eliminated from College Football Playoff Contention
As we are rapidly approaching the halfway point of the season, we are definitely starting to see some separation among the contenders. My rule about eliminating teams is threat it’s not my place to predict games; a team is only eliminated if it has no chance at the CFP — even if it runs the table. Many Power 5 teams still have a chance at the Playoff with two losses and a conference championship, though it may take some chaos to get there. There are other two-loss teams who won’t have enough respect to make the Playoff if they run the table, so we can eliminate those. We will whittle our way down to about six or seven teams (only four, if we’re really lucky) by the end of conference championship weekend. But, we will do it slowly. The goal is to accurately eliminate each team while never eliminating a team too early–I don’t ever want to have to “un-eliminate” a team.
AAC: Only Houston is not yet eliminated
ACC: Virginia, Syracuse, Duke,
Big 12: Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas, Kansas State, TCU
Big Ten: Northwestern, Rutgers, Iowa, Purdue
Conference USA: All teams have been eliminated
Independents: All independents have been eliminated
MAC: Only Western Michigan is not yet eliminated
Mountain West: Only Air Force and Boise State are not yet eliminated
Pac-12: Washington State, USC, Oregon State, Arizona, UCLA, Oregon
SEC: Kentucky, South Carolina, Missouri, Vanderbilt
Sun Belt: All teams have been eliminated
With a whopping 17 eliminations this week, we have now eliminated 84 teams. Four of the eliminations (Memphis, Navy Toledo, and San Diego State) came from the Group of 5 conferences, which means that 13 new Power 5 teams are now out of the running. Last week, only ten out of 65 P5 teams (15%) were eliminated, leaving 85% still alive for the Playoff — however slim their odds. With 23 out of 65 (35%) now eliminated, we are rapidly approaching knocking out half of the P5 teams.
This week saw the first eliminations from the SEC. The SEC is still the conference that is most respected by the voters, which will be a big benefit when Selection Sunday rolls around. The four teams that have been eliminated all have three losses (no team in the West has three losses yet), but Georgia is on the brink. Two ACC teams out of conference look good (and that North Carolina win got a lot better this week), but the Bulldogs are rapidly running out of chances for quality wins.
The Big 12 was just a few plays away from being essentially eliminated entirely this week. Had Baylor and West Virginia both lost, the opportunities for good wins in conference would have been nonexistent, forcing me to eliminate everyone except Oklahoma, who would still be barely alive on the strength of the non-conference schedule. They survived, though, so so does the Big 12, for now. Every two-loss team in the conference, except Oklahoma, has not been eliminated. There just aren’t enough chances for good wins anymore.
Group of 5 Race
As teams in P5 conferences play big games and gather the attention, Houston is churning out win after win against AAC competition. Navy might offer a bit of a challenge, but it would really be a shock to see anyone come close to the Cougars before November. Until then, we will see teams that lose drop below Houston, while those with big wins probably jump the Cougars. That’s the life of being in a Group of 5 conference as a potential national contender.
Two results this week will really affect the Group of 5 race. The first, of course, was Louisville’s loss to Clemson. Because the loss was so close, Louisville will still be a Top 10 team (at absolute worst) if it is 9-1 when it visits Houston. That is pretty much a dream come true for the Cougars, though they obviously would wish that Louisville was undefeated when they meet. The Louisville loss hurts Houston a bit, but a 13-0 Houston team will still be a definite CFP contender.
The other result that could affect a G5 Playoff hopeful (though this one was a much further shot) is San Diego State’s upset loss to South Alabama. The Mountain West had a potential dream scenario of Boise State and San Diego State meeting at 12-0 each in the conference championship game. That potential situation no longer exists, though a small consolation prize of 11-0 Boise State meeting 11-0 Air Force isn’t so unrealistic right now. Still, unless Washington State does some serious damage in the Pac-12 this year, the Mountain West’s pipe dream of putting a team in the Playoff is probably on hold until next year.
There is one final team that has not yet been eliminated. Western Michigan is clearly not good enough to be a Playoff team, but the Broncos are the cream of the MAC and Toledo in the regular-season finale seems to be the only real threat to an undefeated season. Even undefeated — and with two wins over Big Ten teams — Western Michigan won’t get any Playoff buzz. But go 13-0, and do it impressively, and the Selection Committee will have to seriously consider putting more than one G5 team in New Years’ Six games.
What to Look for in Week 6
On the surface, Week 6 does not have the top-level matchups that we had in Week 5, but there are games with some serious Playoff implications hidden in the schedule. Virginia Tech and North Carolina meet in a pivotal ACC Coastal battle. The loser will be eliminated from Playoff contention. Also, Georgia’s slim Playoff hopes hinge on North Carolina being a valuable victory. A UNC loss to Virginia Tech would hurt Georgia’s resume, which is sorely lacking in quality wins. In another ACC battle, Florida State could be eliminated with a loss to Miami. Meanwhile, a Miami win will make the whole ACC Atlantic look weaker, as the division’s trio of elite or near-elite teams will clearly be reduced to a duo. Georgia Tech/Pittsburgh is a second elimination game in the SEC; this game will also affect Georgia as the Bulldogs will play Georgia Tech during Rivalry Week.
In the SEC’s first true elimination game of the season, Florida and LSU will meet in their yearly cross-divisional rivalry (as is Auburn vs Mississippi State, but those two are much further out of the picture). There are also several ranked matchups in the SEC, including Alabama/Arkansas and Texas A&M/Tennessee. No one will be eliminated out of either of those games, but the Playoff implications are obvious.
