There are a lot of stories to take away from this college football week, as there are every week. The most significant result this weekend, as of now at least, was Houston’s shocking loss to the Navy Midshipmen. This has far-reaching implications, but let’s start with the most basic. Houston will not be in the Playoff now. There aren’t enough valuable games on that schedule for the Cougars to overcome this loss. Even convincing wins over Oklahoma and Louisville wouldn’t be enough. The Cougars may still be in play for a New Years’ Six bowl, but the Playoff dream is done.
Speaking of an NY6 bowl for Houston, we have to point out that the Cougars now need Navy to lose a conference game in order to even be in consideration for that automatic spot. Houston has to wait for Navy to drop one game (probably two unless there is a three-way tie) before it can win the division. The highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion gets an automatic NY6 slot, not the highest-ranked G5 team. If Houston doesn’t get that spot, who stands to gain?
The two in prime position right now are Boise State and Western Michigan. Both Broncos look very good so far this year, though Boise State has a much tougher schedule moving forward. Then again, Boise State also has wins over two Pac-12 teams, including a Washington State team that is starting to earn some poll love. Western Michigan looks very good in the MAC and did beat two Big Ten teams out of conference, so it’s not like the eye test and schedule aren’t there for the MAC Broncos either. It will be fascinating to see how the committee judges these two teams and what their ceilings are if they continue winning.
We have yet to see it in the CFP era, and this conversation is still a few weeks premature, but we need to begin wondering about the possibility of multiple G5 teams competing in NY6 bowl games. If both Boise State and Western Michigan win out (and they will each be favored in all of their remaining games), it will be tough to keep either of them out of the Top 10, especially if they continue dominating conference opponents. Also, Houston will be in play for an NY6 bowl with a win over Louisville. Seeing two of those three in NY6 bowls is not unthinkable, especially if Navy wins the AAC — which leaves a high possibility for one of the Broncos to be automatic and for Houston to get an at-large.
Week 6 CFP Implications: Teams Remaining in College Football Playoff Contention
After last week, we had 45 teams still in Playoff contention. As we pass Week 6, some teams have not completed half of their regular season. Some are even bowl-eligible. More importantly, though, only some are still alive for the Playoff. With under 40 teams still alive in the Playoff race, it is now time to start only counting those contenders remaining, instead of listing those already eliminated. My rule about eliminating teams is that it’s not my place to predict games; a team is only eliminated if it has no chance at the CFP — even if it runs the table. We will whittle our way down to about six or seven teams (only four, if we’re really lucky) by the end of conference championship weekend. But, we will do it slowly. The goal is to accurately eliminate each team while never eliminating a team too early–I don’t ever want to have to “un-eliminate” a team.
AAC: None
ACC: Clemson, Louisville, Florida State, N.C. State, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Miami (FL), Pittsburgh
Big 12: Oklahoma, Baylor, West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Indiana, Maryland, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Minnesota
Conference USA: None
Independents: None
MAC: Western Michigan
Mountain West: Boise State
Pac-12: Washington, Arizona State, Utah
SEC: Florida, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, Texas A&M, LSU, Auburn, Mississippi
Sun Belt: None
With 11 eliminations in Week 6, there are now only 33 schools left alive in the College Football Playoff hunt (I know the math is off by one; I forgot to eliminate Illinois last week, when the Illini were out of the race). I still have nine teams from the ACC as being alive. That number will drop, rapidly. With 14 teams in the conference and multiple chances in each division at quality wins — not to mention the fact that conference play started a week later than most Power 5 conferences because of the extra non-conference game — it’s just taking a little longer before the regular whittling down occurs in that league. Also, having 14 teams in the conference helps. For similar reasons, the Big Ten and SEC each have eight teams still alive, but those numbers will also drop rapidly.
Can any Conference Get Two Teams In?
We are at an awkward point in the season where we are deep enough in that there is a limited number of teams remaining, but so many games remaining that it’s too soon to talk about real scenarios with any degree of certainty. Still, we know for sure that the Pac-12 and Big 12 will not be getting multiple teams in. There is no scenario in which either of those conferences puts multiple teams in the Playoff.
The ACC has two ways to put two teams in the Playoff, but neither are likely. If Clemson and Louisville both win out — and do so impressively — Louisville will get consideration for the Top 4. Still, the Cardinals will have, at absolute maximum, two ranked wins. No team has yet to make the Playoff with less than three. That, plus a lack of a conference championship, makes this unlikely. The other scenario is if Virginia Tech or Miami runs the table and beats an undefeated No. 1 Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. Again, this is very unlikely, and even if it occurs, there is no guarantee that Clemson gets into the Playoff.
The SEC and Big Ten have far more varied and complicated scenarios, but most center around having two teams from the same division go undefeated except against each other. Ohio State and Michigan are the Big Ten’s best shot; Texas A&M and Alabama are the SEC’s best hope. Tennessee or Nebraska could still also be potential second teams in from these conferences.
Remember, though, for any conference to put two teams in, there has to be a situation where there are questions about (or, better, definite issues with) the champions from multiple Power conferences. Speaking of which, this should lead us to our next topic.
Who Gains the Most from Houston’s Loss?
Houston was a potential Playoff threat until Navy beat them this Saturday. The Cougars were the ultimate wild card, as they could have stolen a spot from one of the power conferences. Now, with that concern gone, the Power 5 have to be sighing in relief.
The biggest immediate beneficiary is the Big 12. That conference is clearly the closest to missing the Playoff, and Houston no longer being a threat helps relieve some of that tension. Also, Oklahoma is still in play if the Sooners win out. A 10-2 Oklahoma compared to an undefeated Houston team wouldn’t get into the Playoff; compared to a one-loss Houston team, the Sooners will probably have a better resume.
The other conference on the bubble is the Pac-12. Washington is clearly on top of the conference right now, but after that the drop-off is huge. The team playing second-best right now, Washington State, has already been eliminated from Playoff contention due to non-conference losses to FCS Eastern Washington and Boise State. In the South, every team has a loss, and everyone but Utah and Arizona State has two. It’s unlikely that anyone survives that division unscathed. Also, the position of ranked teams in the conference is very tenuous. It is possible that when all is said and done there will only be two or three ranked teams in the Pac-12. This means that if Washington loses a game, the Huskies could have a weak resume–especially with the second-weakest non-conference schedule in the country. A 13-0 Houston team would have been ahead of any Pac-12 team but a 13-0 Washington. With Houston’s loss, that concern goes away.
As of now, there is no need for the ACC, SEC, and Big Ten to be concerned. Those conferences have multiple contenders and enough ranked teams that any one-loss conference champion will have a strong resume. Still, there are seven weeks left in the season and anything can happen. Having Houston out of the picture is beneficial. Also, though it’s way too early to think about it, Boise State’s long-shot dreams just became a little less of a long shot.
What to Look for in Week 7
N.C. State has a loss to East Carolina already, but as of now the Wolfpack still have five ranked teams on the schedule. It starts with a game against Clemson this week. N.C. State could definitely have a solid resume with two losses, but it would take a win over Clemson this week to get into the national conversation.
In the Big 12, West Virginia will have its first real road test (in its first road game) when the Mountaineers travel to Texas Tech. Western Michigan will have a conference road test as well when the Broncos travel to Akron. After the way they handled Central Michigan, though, it’s hard seeing any MAC team put up a challenge until they face Toledo.
Alabama and Tennessee will play in a rivalry game with obvious implications, though a Tennessee win will help Virginia Tech also. North Carolina and Miami will meet in an elimination game in the ACC. Also, keep an eye on Oregon State’s game against Utah. The Beavers just upset Cal and are playing well. An upset here would give them a chance at a bowl — and Oregon State being a bowl team could be a deciding factor when comparing the potential resumes of Western Michigan and Boise State.
There will be two ranked battles at night, including Ohio State/Wisconsin and Ole Miss/Arkansas. Those have obvious implications, and the latter is an elimination game. Also, though we won’t discuss this scenario in depth unless it comes to pass, but a close Wisconsin win over Ohio State could be the start of a fascinating scenario in the Big Ten that could cause a major conundrum for the selection committee.
