No, Mark Helfrich did not save his job this weekend.
Despite the obviousness of the situation, I’ve seen more than a few people suggest that Helfrich is off the hot seat because Oregon beat Arizona State 54-35 on Saturday evening.
With all due respect, that’s simply not the case. Sure, the win over the Sun Devils was nice, but the Ducks still have a lot of work to do in order to qualify for a bowl game this season. At 3-5, Oregon must win three of its final four contests just to become bowl eligible. That won’t be an easy task against a schedule that includes USC, Stanford, and Utah.
Even if – and it’s a big if – the Ducks should get the job done and earn a bowl invitation, it’s still possible that Oregon might make a move at the end of the season. Although Helfrich did guide the school to the College Football Playoff in his first year, the program has really fallen apart since then. Yes, the Ducks finished 9-4 last season, but they suffered through some very painful moments along the way, including a 62-20 loss to Utah, and a 47-41 loss to TCU, in which Oregon led 31-0 at halftime.
This year has been more of the same, as the Ducks dropped their first four Pac-12 contests. While there’s no shame in losing to Colorado, Washington State, and Washington, the fact remains that Oregon has the second-worst defense in the country, allowing 529.8 yards per game. That’s 40 yards more than it gave up in 2015.
Barring a stellar showing in the final four games of the year, 2016 will be the third straight season that Oregon finished 89th or lower in total defense.
That number is enough to put any coach on the hot seat, especially at a program like Oregon that’s accustomed to posting 10+ wins every year.
When viewed in that context, it doesn’t look like a victory over Arizona State is nearly enough to silence Helfrich’s critics anytime soon. Only some big wins down the stretch will do that.
