We’re getting into crunch time of the 2016 college football season. We are down to only a few teams (if you read this week’s CFP Implications, you’d see there are only 14 left) who can make the Playoff and each only have a few games left. We can finally look at the concrete scenarios that each team needs to make the Playoff. Because we can do that, we can know exactly what each team needs to root for this week. So between now and the end of the season, I will present the “rooting interests” for each team and its fans. Here’s what you need to root for if you want your team in the Playoff.
College Football Rooting Interests: Week 11
ACC
Clemson: The Tigers are in the Playoff if they win out. We do have a unique scenario right now where just about every top team can afford a loss. Clemson has great wins over Auburn and Louisville along with another good one over Florida State. Troy could sneak into the rankings too if it keeps winning, so Clemson wants to see the Trojans beat Appalachian State. The only thing Clemson fans need to worry about is what the Tigers need in case they lose. If the Tigers lose before the ACC Championship Game, they have such a big lead on the fifth team in line that they will be safe. Still, seeing Louisville, Florida State, Auburn, and Troy continue to win will help. Usually a team in Clemson’s situation would like a strong conference championship game opponent to add that one final quality win. However, the Tigers already have enough good wins. If their opponent in the CCG already has three losses, any possible risk (which I think is already very tiny) of that team jumping Clemson with an upset win will be erased. So Clemson fans should be pulling for Georgia Tech to knock off Virginia Tech this week. Finally, even with a loss, a Playoff spot is all-but-assured as long as there is no good Big 12 team for the committee to take, so Texas upsetting West Virginia would basically remove the Big 12 as a threat to Clemson.
Louisville: The Cardinals are in trouble. There just isn’t enough meat on the resume. Obviously, they need Florida State to keep winning. Houston won’t ever be the quality win it could have, but if the Cougars end up 9-3 it’s still a good-looking win. Most importantly, though, Clemson has to lose. Without an appearance in the ACC Championship Game, Louisville just won’t have a Playoff resume. A quality win in that game is paramount as well, so Louisville should root for Virginia Tech to keep on winning.
Big 12
Oklahoma and West Virginia: Honestly, both teams’ Playoff hopes are near dead right now. They officially need chaos. The good news, though, is that “chaos” in the Playoff era means that there are only three dominant teams. Upsets in the ACC, Big Ten, and SEC might help, but it would take a lot of upsets in those conferences to free up a Playoff spot. All chaos is good chaos, but Oklahoma and West Virginia fans should target the conference that they could most likely replace — the Pac 12. An 11-1 West Virginia might get the nod over a 12-1 Washington, but it definitely will over an 11-2 Washington or any other Pac-12 champion. Oklahoma and West Virginia are rooting hard for USC this week.
Big Ten
Michigan: The Wolverines are in if they win out. Like Clemson, though, they can survive a loss. Like Clemson, taking the Big 12 out of the picture would guarantee that the Wolverines could survive a loss, so Michigan is rooting for Texas as well. Michigan might be safely in the Playoff and ahead of Wisconsin anyway if a 12-0 Michigan loses to a 10-2 Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game, but Michigan doesn’t need that risk. Facing Minnesota in the CCG is a much safer prospect, as neither of those would have the quality wins to come close to passing Michigan, even with a head-to-head victory in the CCG. Michigan wants to keep its quality win over Wisconsin, so it can’t root for the Badgers to lose against Illinois, but the Wolverines want to see Minnesota beat the Cornhuskers — so that Minnesota can be the eventual CCG opponent if the Gophers beat Wisconsin.
Minnesota: The Gophers are still alive because they can close the season with wins over Nebraska, Wisconsin, and either Ohio State or Michigan. The problem is that an 11-2 Minnesota, with losses to Penn State and Iowa, just won’t get the CFP nod over 12-1 Michigan, even if Minnesota beats Michigan. The Gophers want Michigan as their CCG opponent, but they need the Wolverines to have a loss first. Ergo, Minnesota is rooting for Iowa over Michigan this week — which will have the added benefit of making the Gophers’ loss to Iowa not as bad. If that works out, Minnesota needs to be ahead of the Big 12 champion, so the Gophers are rooting for Texas over West Virginia and Baylor over Oklahoma. Also, Minnesota needs to worry about being snubbed in favor of a second ACC or SEC team. Georgia upsetting Auburn and Wake Forest upsetting Louisville would take care of those problems, so Gopher fans are also pulling for the Bulldogs and Demon Deacons this week.
Ohio State: The Buckeyes are in the Playoff if they win out and win the Big Ten, but unlike Clemson and Michigan they have no more margin for error. Rooting for chaos around the country and resume-sustaining wins (i.e. Wisconsin and Nebraska not getting upset or Oklahoma continuing to win) could help the Buckeyes in any super-chaos scenarios, but for Ohio State fans it’s simple: win out and win the Big Ten because nothing else really matters. This, however, leads to an uncomfortable situation. Ohio State will lose the Big Ten East tiebreaker to Penn State if Michigan loses to either Iowa or Indiana, so the Buckeyes need the Wolverines to win. If Penn State loses to Indiana, the Buckeyes can root against Michigan, but until then they need to pull for the Wolverines.
Wisconsin: Wisconsin has to be concerned that if it meets a 12-0 Michigan in the CCG, it won’t jump the Wolverines even with a win. Root for LSU over Arkansas to keep that win looking valuable, and root for Nebraska to keep that win looking good. (There is a slight chance that the committee could end up ranking both Nebraska and Minnesota if both end up 9-3, but that’s not so likely so it’s safer to have Nebraska ranked in the Top 15 at 10-2 and Minnesota definitely unranked at 8-4.) Wisconsin needs Michigan to end the season with two losses — but it also needs to beat either Michigan or Ohio State in the Big Ten CCG. Wisconsin needs Penn State to lose to Indiana and Michigan to lose to Iowa. After that, the Badgers will feel safer with the Big 12 out of the picture, so pull for Texas over West Virginia and Baylor over Oklahoma. Also, like with Minnesota, having Auburn and Louisville out of the picture won’t hurt, though that’s less of a concern for the Badgers than it is with the Gophers.
Penn State: I think the Nittany Lions are eliminated from Playoff contention. I’m not ready to un-eliminate them. They don’t have the quality wins and just need way too much chaos for it to happen. But they’re close enough that I’m willing to mention it here. Nittany Lions, root for upsets across the board — and for Minnesota to beat Nebraska so that can turn into a ranked win. If I see enough chaos this week (including a Michigan loss) — and a Minnesota win — I may have to un-eliminate Penn State. But I won’t do it unless Michigan loses, at the very minimum.
Pac-12
Washington: I think that the Huskies’ poor SOS will cost them dearly if they lose a game. The scenarios where Washington gets in with a loss will need a lot of discussion, but let’s suffice it to say that the Big 12 being out of the picture is an imperative. Huskies fans are rooting against West Virginia and Oklahoma. Most importantly, though, Washington fans are rooting for Washington. Wondering about losing and getting in is playing with fire right now — unlike for other top teams.
SEC
Alabama: The Crimson Tide are in the same position as Michigan and Wisconsin. Alabama can survive a loss, but taking the Big 12 out of the picture certainly won’t hurt. Also, Alabama would like to see Georgia take out Auburn, so that Alabama wins the SEC West even with an Iron Bowl loss. If an 11-2 Auburn wins the SEC, an 11-1 Alabama might make it into the Playoff before the Tigers, but that’s not a risk worth taking.
Auburn: The Tigers have to be very nervous that they wouldn’t jump Alabama even if they upset the Tide and win the SEC. Auburn would have a maximum two ranked wins (the LSU/Arkansas winner and Alabama). Alabama would have one more ranked win, one fewer loss, and the never-ending benefit of the doubt. Auburn would love to see Alabama lose to Mississippi State to remove that fear. Also, Florida might be able to sneak back into the rankings if it keeps winning, so Auburn is rooting for the Gators. Of course, Florida being ranked means the Gators beat LSU, so Auburn wants Arkansas to beat LSU also this week so that Arkansas remains a ranked win (and Auburn wants LSU to fall out of the rankings with that Florida loss anyway). After that, Auburn also wants the Big 12 out of the picture, and Louisville losing won’t hurt either.
Florida: The Gators are all-but-out of the Playoff race. They have no great wins and two losses that don’t look great. Florida can close the season with three ranked wins, though, so I still have them alive. It wants LSU and Florida State to keep on winning so that those wins would be valuable. If 9-2 Florida upsets 12-0 Alabama in the SEC CCG, it is far from guaranteed that Florida jumps the Tide. In fact, I would peg it as unlikely. On the other hand, Florida needs that CCG win over Alabama to close the season. So the Gators need either for Auburn to lose to Georgia this week (which has the added side-benefit of making Florida’s win over Georgia look better) and for Auburn to upset Alabama in two weeks; or Florida needs Mississippi State to beat Alabama this week. If both Alabama and Auburn win this week, Florida would be in serious trouble. It would need to hope that two SEC teams make the Playoff this year, which would mean that two other conferences don’t have an acceptable teams. That starts with West Virginia and Baylor losing in the Big 12, but it also requires either USC beating Washington or for lots of upsets to start happening in the ACC.
Texas A&M: Texas A&M’s only real chance is if the SEC gets two teams in. Like with Florida above, that means having unacceptable champions from multiple conferences. It starts with Big 12 contenders losing. It continues with USC beating Washington and then chaos around the country. Tennessee upsetting an undefeated Alabama in the SEC CCG will also help, as Tennessee is probably Texas A&M’s best win. Really, though, the Aggies have no chance without extreme chaos.
