We’re about to start Week 12 of the college football season (including #MACtion, it has already started), which means that there are just three weeks of play left before the College Football Playoff selection committee determines our four semifinalists. To help judge these teams’ resumes, I will once again be presenting The Student Section’s Bubble Watch. It’s quite simple. I’m going to present the resumes of every team still alive in the CFP conversation (and those of four who I don’t have as still alive, but who are the next closest up). In this week’s CFP Implications, I counted 11 steams still in contention. In addition to those 11, I will also present the resumes of Utah, Colorado, Penn State, and Oklahoma State, just for comparison.
It’s been a year, so let’s give a quick review of how this works.
I have considered adding other metrics like rankings in offensive and defensive efficiency or yards per play. On the one hand, the resume is which teams you have beaten, so I want stick to only identifying the quality of wins and losses and show you each contender’s remaining games. On the other hand, the committee “watches teams play,” which is really not a quantifiable statistic, but something that we can at least try to get a bearing on. Still, it’s hard to find an offensive or defensive metric that accurately represents all teams and styles of play. Some metrics will over-value “air raid” type offenses while some will prefer more consistent, but less explosive, gameplans. In the end, I have decided to add the rank in offensive and defensive yards per play, which gives a basic metric of how efficient and/or consistent a team is on both sides of the ball.
For the purposes of determining quality wins, things like Top 10 and Top 25 are arbitrary numbers that do more harm than good. There is no reason the gap between No. 25 and No. 26 is considered significantly larger than the gap between 24 and 25. Therefore, to counteract this, I am being very lenient as to who is considered Top 10 or Top 25. Any team in the Top 25 of one of the major polls (AP or Coaches’), or in a significant number of the accepted computer rankings, will be considered in the Top 25 for resume purposes.
This leads to the awkwardness of having more than 25 “Top 25″ teams, but it presents a more accurate picture of the overall resume. The SOS range is taken from numerous computer rankings. Ranges can be quite large, but they do give a decent picture of the possibilities of how strong the schedule actually is.
Bubble Watch: Week 12
I have several sections this year, ranging from the teams that control their own destiny to those that are full-fledged #TeamChaos members. The odd part about this year is that there is no true bubble. The gap between the top teams and the second level is still vast, even with last week’s chaos. All of the “Bubble” teams are really those that need help from teams losing in front of them, not the usual Bubble of judgment calls we’ve seen in the past. Also, keep an mind that the order of the teams is intentional. Even within each category, I’m ranking each resume from strongest to weakest.
Controls own destiny:
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | T25 To Play | Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
Alabama |
0-0 | 4-0 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 1-0 | 3-10 | 1 | 6.6(11) | 3.8(1) |
It is abundantly clear why Alabama is the No. 1 team in the nation. This resume is pretty untouchable. Only one cupcake, an unbeatable SOS, and four ranked wins set Alabama apart from everyone else. Sure, a few of those ranked wins could pick up losses and drop out (LSU and Texas A&M will still play each other), but even so, this is incredible. Alabama truly deserves to be in a class of its own. This team doesn’t only control its own destiny–Alabama can lose a game and still be a Playoff lock.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | T25 To Play | Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
Michigan |
3-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 4-0 | 20-50 | 1 | 6.3(18) | 3.9(2) |
The Wolverines could be a whopping 5-0 against the Top 10 if they win out. That gets you in the Playoff.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | T25 To Play | Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
| Clemson | 1-0 | 3-0 | 0-1 | 3-0 | 2-0 | 20-30 | 0 | 6.1(27) | 4.1(13) |
Thanks to Troy in the AP poll, Clemson is tied with Alabama with four ranked wins. The stats aren’t dominant, but they are solid and the SOS numbers are very good too. One more loss would probably knock the Tigers out of contention, but three more wins and they’re solidly in.
Probably in if they win out
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | T25 To Play | Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
| Ohio State | 2-1 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 3-0 | 2-0 | 2-30 | 1 | 6.4(15) | 4.1(4) |
I really wanted to put the Buckeyes in the “controls its own destiny” category, and this resume shows why. It’s strong. Excellent statistics, very good SOS, and very few cupcake games (though Michigan State actually currently sits in the cupcake range). Ohio State could be looking at four ranked wins if it ends the season at 11-1. That will be good enough for the Playoff. I’m sure of it. But because of the uncertainty that many have, I’m leaving the Buckeyes in this group for now.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | T25 To Play | Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
Wisconsin |
0-2 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 2-0 | 4-0 | 5-20 | 0 | 5.2(85) | 4.5(9) |
This resume epitomizes why we have to wait for the season to develop. Michigan State was viewed as a marquee win in Week 4. Now? The Spartans are actually one of those four 80+ wins on this resume. Still, Wisconsin played four ranked teams, and those teams in the 41-80 range are pretty close to the Top 40. I don’t know if Wisconsin will jump the Buckeyes if it wins the Big Ten, but I do know that the Badgers will have a good shot at the Playoff regardless.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | T25 To Play | Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
Washington |
0-0 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 3-0 | 4-0 | 30-85 | 1 | 7.2(6) | 4.2(14) |
This isn’t a great resume, but it could have four Top 25 wins by the end. The number of cupcakes and the SOS range are troubling, but those are probably offset by the dominant offensive and defensive stats. The extreme SOS difference makes me keep Washington behind Wisconsin, though the committee kept the Huskies in front this week. Still, these resumes are close.
On the Bubble
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | T25 To Play | Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
Louisville |
0-1 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 4-0 | 4-0 | 40-80 | 0-0 | 7.6(2) | 4.1(3) |
I have been saying that Louisville doesn’t really have the resume to be a Playoff contender for almost a month now. This Bubble Watch makes it clear. One ranked win, four cupcakes, and a middling-to-poor SOS that will stay about the same with finishing games against Houston and Kentucky. This isn’t a Playoff resume. However, doing this Bubble Watch gives me pause. Because the stats show that while this may not be a Playoff resume, the best combined offense and defense in the country makes this a Playoff team. Last year, there was a statistically great team without a good enough resume to accompany it, and that wasn’t enough for Ohio State to get in. Last year, though, we have four resumes that were clearly superior to all others. This year there might not be four resumes that are clear-cut Playoff resumes. If there aren’t, you can bet that Louisville’s statistical dominance will get serious discussion in the committee room.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | T25 To Play | Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
Oklahoma |
0-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 5-0 | 3-0 | 25-60 | 2 | 7.4(3) | 5.5(57) |
This resume is a whole lot of blah. Seriously. No Top 40 wins and a middling SOS. What is keeping Oklahoma afloat is some mad respect for the aggressive non-conference scheduling, one of the best offenses in the country, and the fact that the Sooners will finish the season against two ranked teams. Oklahoma needs help to make the Playoff, even if it wins out.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | T25 To Play | Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
| West Virginia | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5-0 | 3-0 | 40-90 | 1 | 6.1(30) | 5.1(33) |
If you thought Oklahoma’s resume was blah, look at this one. This is what Oklahoma’s resume would look like without a good non-conference schedule. West Virginia might have a talented defense (though it doesn’t quite show up in these stats due to playing in the Big 12), but this resume just has no meat. West Virginia is looking at a maximum one ranked win. Maybe it can get a second Top 40 win if TCU wins two of its last three games. But that’s it. West Virginia’s best Playoff argument is “11-1 Power 5 champ.” And, when you look at how it got to that 11-1, the argument really doesn’t hold up.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | T25 To Play | Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
| Florida | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 45-65 | 2 | 5.4(69) | 4.1(5) |
You might ask what a resume like this is doing on the Bubble and not together with the other teams that are “eliminated” but could get back in with chaos miracles. The answer is simple. If Florida wins its next two games, against ranked LSU and Florida State, it will be rewarded with an SEC Championship Game against Alabama. Win those three, and all of a sudden this is a very competitive resume. Lose to LSU, though, and not even a miracle could get this team in the Playoff.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | T25 To Play | Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
Western Michigan |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-0 | 8-0 | 101-125 | 0 | 6.6(9) | 5.5(58) |
I won’t eliminate an undefeated team, but it’s easy to see why Western Michigan is so low in the committee’s rankings. In fact, looking at this resume, I’m a bit surprised that the committee ranked WMU at all. In a year where there was enough chaos that an undefeated Group of 5 team could have really entered the discussion, the only undefeated Go5 team just doesn’t have a resume worth discussing.
Needs a miracle
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | T25 To Play | Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
Colorado |
0-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 4-0 | 3-0 | 15-55 | 2 | 5.5(65) | 4.6(10) |
Of all of my teams that are dead right now, I think Colorado is probably actually still alive. There are no good wins yet, but winning out would give this team four (well, probably three, as Washington State would fall out of the rankings) wins to end the season. The SOS numbers are decent, too. Colorado isn’t jumping an 11-1 Ohio State or an 11-2 Big Ten champion Wisconsin, but if Michigan wins the Big Ten this team is probably still alive.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | T25 To Play | Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
| Penn State | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 3-0 | 2-0 | 4-30 | 0 | 6.1(31) | 4.9(25) |
You might look at this resume and wonder why I’m so down on Penn State. Sure, the stats aren’t good, but the SOS is solid and there aren’t many cupcakes. First of all, that SOS will drop like a rock with closing games against Rutgers and Michigan State (two cupcakes). Secondly, there just aren’t enough quality wins. Yes, Penn State could end the season with wins over Wisconsin and Ohio State, the best two wins any team has. But that overall can’t compete with the resumes in front of this one. Penn State needs to win the Big Ten and have either Washington or Clemson and Louisville fall out of the picture. It can happen, but it is very far from likely.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | T25 To Play | Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
| Utah | 0-1 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 3-1 | 4-0 | 25-65 | 1 | 5.7(55) | 5.6(64) |
The loss to Cal really is what does this resume in. Utah can close with two Top 10 wins (over Colorado and then Washington in the Pac 12 Championship Game), but there are four cupcakes, middling stats, and a middling SOS. This isn’t a Playoff resume without a miracle.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range | T25 To Play | Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
OklahomaState |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 3-1 | 3-1 | 60-90 | 1 | 6.6(10) | 5.9(84) |
In terms of top wins, the Cowboys have a better resume than the two Big 12 schools I still have as alive. But Oklahoma State is the only team on this sheet with a loss to a cupcake. And while it may have the argument that it actually won that game, I don’t know if that will stand up at the end of the day. Also, that atrocious SOS number will get a little better with upcoming games against TCU and Oklahoma, but not by enough to overcome the two bad losses.
