Looking back at recent college football history, it’s safe to say that Toledo is due to upset Western Michigan on Friday evening.
That’s not to say that defeating the Broncos will be an easy task. It won’t be. After all, Western Michigan enters the game with a perfect record, including two wins over Big Ten opponents. In addition, the Bronco offense is one of the most explosive units in the nation, ranking ninth in the country in yards per play (6.97 ypp). Considering that quarterback Zach Terrell threw for a career-best 445 yards against Buffalo last week, Western has to like its chances in the season finale.
However, Toledo owes them an upset. Or two.
Just look at what happened last season. After years of falling one game short of winning the MAC West title, the Rockets had a golden opportunity to return to the MAC championship game for the first time since 2004. All they had to do was beat Western Michigan.
They didn’t. Zach Terrell threw for 243 yards – on 12 completions – to spark the Broncos to a 35-30 win over Toledo in the Glass Bowl. This upset gave Western Michigan a share of the division title and knocked the Rockets out of the top 25. While UT would still go to a bowl game, the loss took a lot of the luster off of a very promising season that started with a win over Arkansas in Little Rock.
As tough as that loss was, it wasn’t the most devastating loss for Toledo in this series. That happened back in 2000, when Western Michigan beat the Rockets 21-14.
Make no mistake about it: Toledo was one of the top stories in college football when the two teams played that contest. The Rockets shocked the college football world in the first week of the season by throttling Penn State 24-6 in Happy Valley. Considering how well UT played in that contest – it outgained the Nittany Lions 385-166 – mid-major fans across the country started to pull for the Rockets to crash the party, much like they are for Navy, Western Michigan, Boise State, and Houston this year.
Unfortunately, Toledo’s dream of a perfect season ended that evening. Western Michigan raced out to a 21-0 lead early in the third quarter. While Toledo would cut the margin to seven in the final stanza, it couldn’t generate enough offense to beat the Bronco D, which held the Rockets to just 23 of 50 passing.
This loss – Toledo’s only defeat of the 2000 campaign – would cost the team dearly. It not only prevented them from playing for the MAC Championship; it kept them out of the postseason since the conference only had one bowl tie-in that season. Had the Rockets lost any game other than that one, they would have had the opportunity to play for both.
Few losses – if any – were as painful as that one was for the Rockets.
Given that the roles are reversed this year (Western Michigan is having the dream season, UT is the underdog), Toledo would love nothing more than to return the favor. Although the Rockets can’t knock Western Michigan out of the postseason, they can eliminate them from an NY6 Bowl game. That loss would sting just as much – if not more – than the ones Toledo endured in 2000 and 2015.
