One way or another, smooth and clean or grubby and argumentative, we’re getting the one poll, rankings, whatever, that actually matters since we all started this thing in September.
Next week, we’ll know the four teams selected to play for college football’s biggest prize. They can’t choose three. Or six. No matter who is deserving or not deserving of one thing or another, we’re getting our final four.
And with that in mind, here are a few things I firmly believe to be true as we hit the final stretch after a weekend of carnage in order of confidence in it actually happening. Keep in mind that these are simply opinions, certainly not things I prefer or do not prefer see happen.
5. There’s a 50 percent chance the SEC Champion won’t make the Playoffs
Look, if you had that bet preseason, the line must’ve looked like +1,000,000, but you’re halfway there to being right. If you’d have made this statement ever, you’d be laughed off the planet, and possibly other ones where the aliens watch college football. But if Florida somehow upsets Alabama (long shot, I know), the SEC champ isn’t getting in. That’s a remarkable thought, but one that shows just how “Alabama … and everyone else” that league has become. Long gone is the cadre of coaching studs with titles to their name roaming the conference. Now, it’s Nick Saban and a bunch of guys that are still okay dealing with Nick Saban, and it shows. Alabama will get in either way, even if they rest their two-deep.
4. Ohio State isn’t in quite just yet
We honestly have no idea how much weight the committee places on conference champions, but we’re likely to see this year. If Penn State wins and Clemson and Washington hold expected but not guaranteed serve, the committee will have to weigh something that’s probably a tall mountain to climb mentally and would set oily precedent … putting OSU in over PSU would mean they’d be saying that the all enjoyable (sarcasm font) eye test means more than both a conference championship and a head to head result. Yes, OSU would have that extra top 10 pelt on the wall and one fewer loss, but if you assume they place chief weight on the conference title and won’t flatly ignore head to head, it’d mean a possible ouster for the Buckeyes.
3. Wisconsin isn’t getting in either way
It’s nothing against the Badgers, whom I normally advocate for, but with one top 10 win (which would be over Penn State) and losses to the second and third place Big Ten East teams who have either the same or fewer amount of losses, it’d send a really odd message by the committee to say that the conference championship means so much that literally nothing else matters. I’d think they’d want to avoid sending that as their mental barometer going into future seasons. There’s a reason the thing wasn’t limited to conference champs only, and I’d assume they’d want to use that “out” when they can. They’ve taken a dim view of weak win strength in the past, and it’s hard to think they’d be fine with a resume that has one top 10 win on it by season’s end. Michigan and Ohio State, who defeated them, both have three.
2. Michigan isn’t totally out of the playoff race yet
Bear with me here, but suppose Clemson and Washington lose. And Wisconsin wins. Or even suppose Penn State wins, but more Wisconsin than Penn State. At this point, you’re locked into Alabama and Ohio State. But are you ignoring the head to head and weaker resume just on the strength of a conference title, in Wisconsin’s case, over a team Michigan beat by 39? By that same token, how much weight does the committee give that 39-point loss? Yeah, PSU has gotten considerably better and DID beat Ohio State, so there’s a point to be made there, but to the overall idea that Michigan is out of this thing … the path is narrow, my friends, but it is a path.
1. Ohio State’s win means the Big 12 isn’t totally out of this thing. They just need Bedlam.
Again, it’ll take some doing, but Oklahoma has a pathway in so long as OSU won last weekend, which they did. There was no way OU was getting in over OSU and Michigan at that point. But if they win Bedlam over the rival Pokes, and Washington loses, they’ve got a shot somewhere above zero percent. They don’t have an overly strong resume and actually have nothing to speak of outside the Big 12, so it’d probably have to be Washington that loses since they have a similarly weak resume by comparison. Again, how much does the conference championship mean versus resume is the key. Even in a loss, Clemson would have a stronger resume. Michigan would, too. And so would Penn State if they won.
