We are down to the final weekend of the college football season. It’s conference championship weekend in every conference other than the Sun Belt and Big 12, which has a de facto championship game in Bedlam. It is clear that Alabama and Ohio State are Playoff locks, even if some are nervous about Ohio State getting jumped by conference champions. The Bubble Watch will show why Ohio State’s resume is safe, and looking at the resumes we’ll see why Michigan is so high–and why there is a legitimate chance for three Big Ten teams to get in the Playoff.
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Let’s give a quick review of how this works.
I made a slight change this year, adding a statistical metric. On the one hand, the resume is which teams you have beaten, so I want stick to only identifying the quality of wins and losses and show you each contender’s remaining games. On the other hand, the committee “watches teams play,” which is really not a quantifiable statistic, but something that we can at least try to get a bearing on. Still, it’s hard to find an offensive or defensive metric that accurately represents all teams and styles of play. Some metrics will over-value “air raid” type offenses while some will prefer more consistent, but less explosive, gameplans. In the end, I have decided to add the rank in offensive and defensive yards per play, which gives a basic metric of how efficient and/or consistent a team is on both sides of the ball.
For the purposes of determining quality wins, things like Top 10 and Top 25 are arbitrary numbers that do more harm than good. There is no reason the gap between No. 25 and No. 26 is considered significantly larger than the gap between 24 and 25. Therefore, to counteract this, I am being very lenient as to who is considered Top 10 or Top 25. Any team in the Top 25 of one of the major polls (AP or Coaches’), or in a significant number of the accepted computer rankings, will be considered in the Top 25 for resume purposes.
This leads to the awkwardness of having more than 25 “Top 25″ teams, but it presents a more accurate picture of the overall resume. The SOS range is taken from numerous computer rankings. Ranges can be quite large, but they do give a decent picture of the possibilities of how strong the schedule actually is.
Lastly, because this is the final week, I will add a team’s final opponent as part of the Bubble Watch, just so it will be clear exactly what can be added to the resume.
Bubble Watch: Week 14
With only one week of games remaining, we can pin down scenarios and know what every team needs. Therefore, we only need three categories. We have our two locks (Ohio State and Alabama) and two teams who will get in with a win this weekend (Clemson and Washington). The rest of the teams still alive are in what we’ll call out “Bubble.” These teams are those next in line if Clemson or Washington — or both — slip up. The order of the teams is intentional — the better resumes will be placed closer to the top.
Locks:
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Final Opponent |
Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
Alabama |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1-0 | 5-0 | 2-0 | 3-35 | Florida | 6.6(16) | 3.8(1) |
Four Top 25 wins, another Top 40 win, and only two cupcakes makes this a powerful resume. A resume like this might not be able to survive a conference championship game every year, but in 2016, it’s more than enough. Alabama is in even with a loss.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Final Opponent |
Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
| Ohio State | 3-1 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 1-15 | none | 6.0(40) | 4.2(3) |
Playing Michigan really hurt Ohio State’s offensive stats. Ohio State’s offense fell from 24th in the country last week to 40th this week. That was well worth it, considering the Buckeyes picked up a third Top 10 win. Here’s why Ohio State is a lock, even though some think Penn State can jump the Buckeyes: Everyone knows Alabama is a lock, even with a loss this weekend. Well, if you add a loss to Alabama’s resume, then Ohio State’s is better. If Alabama is a lock, then so is Ohio State.
Win and In:
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Final Opponent |
Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
| Clemson | 0-0 | 3-1 | 2-0 | 5-0 | 1-0 | 20-45 | Virginia Tech | 6.2(27) | 4.5(6) |
This resume is strong, and it is obvious why Clemson is one win away from the Playoff. A sixth Top 40 win would give Clemson more than anyone but Alabama. Also, playing only one cupcake (an in-state FCS school) makes this look even better. It would be interesting to compare this resume to the Big Ten champion’s or Michigan’s if Clemson loses this weekend, because Clemson’s season would still be pretty close to those — though the lack of top-end wins will probably end up being the killer.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Final Opponent |
Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
Washington |
0-1 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 5-0 | 3-0 | 20-70 |
Colorado |
7.4(4) | 4.6(9) |
This resume is great on stats (and the eye test), but not as much in terms of wins and losses. It took a miracle of chaos for Utah to remain a ranked win this week. And even though there are only three true cupcakes on this schedule, three of the wins in that 40-80 range are towards the very tail end of it (Oregon, Oregon State, and Arizona State). Lastly, in every SOS metric other than Massey’s, Washington’s SOS is very weak. (Massey seems to have an interesting love for Pac-12 schedules; all 12 Pac-12 schools have an SOS of 21 or better, according to him.) Aside from the eye test and the yardage numbers, it’s really hard to tell why Washington’s resume is better than Penn State’s or Wisconsin’s, let alone Michigan’s.
On the Bubble:
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Final Opponent |
Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
Michigan |
3-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3-0 | 4-0 | 5-35 | none | 5.9(44) | 3.8(2) |
For a team in Michigan’s bubble position, four cupcake wins isn’t great. Then again, three of those (Illinois, Rutgers, and Michigan State) came in the Big Ten. Still, three Top 10 wins is more than anyone other than Ohio State can say. Also, the SOS numbers are strong — Sagarin is really weighing it down, but other than that most SOS metrics love Michigan’s schedule. This resume will be looked at very carefully this weekend if Washington or Clemson loses.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Final Opponent |
Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
Wisconsin |
0-2 | 3-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 5-0 | 10-25 | Penn State | 5.2(88) | 4.6(8) |
According to the committee’s rankings, Wisconsin only has one ranked win. However, the committee has to recognize that Nebraska and Iowa are very close in quality to those on the edge of its Top 25. That’s why I always say in the introduction that numbers like Top 25 are arbitrary and I give the benefit of the doubt on what is a “Top 25 win.” If a win over Pitt or Houston is better than a win over Iowa or Nebraska, it’s not by much, and the committee knows that. That’s why this resume is strong. In fact, if you compare this resume to Washington’s, it’s not entirely clear why the Badgers have been behind the Huskies all season. It must be something in the committee’s eye test, because this resume is barely weaker than Washington’s, if it’s weaker at all.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Final Opponent |
Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
| Penn State | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 4-0 | 3-0 | 10-40 |
Wisconsin |
6.3(22) | 4.6(10) |
This resume has very quietly been getting better and better as the season has gone on. Penn State has the best win in the country, and if Temple upsets Navy in the AAC Championship Game, we could well see four ranked wins on this resume. Like I said with Wisconsin, I don’t know what makes this resume worse than Washington’s.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Final Opponent |
Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
Colorado |
0-2 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 5-0 | 2-0 | 10-40 |
Washington |
5.5(70) | 4.7(12) |
This resume is fascinatingly similar to Wisconsin’s. It has a bad offense, great defense, good SOS, two Top 10 losses, a few good wins, and a lot in the middle. (Similar to Washington, four of Colorado’s wins in the 40-80 range are actually in the 70-80 range, so that 5-0 isn’t as good as it looks.) If Penn State adds a win over Wisconsin, it will have a much stronger resume than Colorado. Michigan will have a stronger resume than Colorado regardless. But, if both Colorado and Wisconsin win this week, the Buffaloes might have a chance. There really isn’t too much separating Colorado’s resume from Wisconsin’s right now.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Final Opponent |
Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
Oklahoma |
0-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 4-0 | 4-0 | 20-55 |
Oklahoma State |
7.3(2) | 5.7(72) |
If we’re being honest, the Big 12 is out of the Playoff race. Other than one of the best offenses in college football, this resume doesn’t have much. Oklahoma is looking at a maximum two Top 25 wins, and maybe a third Top 40 wins if Kansas State beats TCU. The SOS isn’t awful, but it’s not good enough to make up for the lack of a resume. Oklahoma isn’t making the Playoff this year.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Final Opponent |
Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
Oklahoma State |
0-0 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 3-1 | 4-1 | 60-95 |
Oklahoma |
6.6(14) | 5.8(76) |
This resume is just for comparison. Oklahoma State has no chance. The Cowboys actually have one more ranked win than Oklahoma does (Pittsburgh), but the SOS numbers are awful. Even if the Central Michigan loss hadn’t happened, this resume would be an extreme long shot and would be behind a bunch of two-loss teams. The loss to Baylor is the worst of any contender, by a wide margin. Three ranked wins is nice, but it really doesn’t help when you’re looking at an SOS that some G5 schools could do better than.
Group of 5
I’m going to present five Group of 5 resumes. The first two are the front-runners for the Cotton Bowl. Western Michigan and Navy are expected to win this week, and they will be the two Group of 5 schools that the committee will choose between. If one loses, the other is essentially a lock. However, if both lose this week, I will present the resumes of teams that would have a chance, though the Cotton Bowl would obviously be very unhappy with that situation.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Final Opponent |
Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
Western Michigan |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3-0 | 9-0 | 100-128 | Ohio | 6.8(10) | 5.7(67) |
I know we want to reward going undefeated, but how much does undefeated really mean when nine of the 12 opponents are in the bottom third of FBS? It’s not like playing Ohio adds much either — the Bobcats are also in the bottom third of FBS (or right on the edge of it). I know Navy has two losses, but both were to better teams than even the best team that Western Michigan faced all season.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Final Opponent |
Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
| Navy | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 2-1 | 5-0 | 65-80 | Temple, Army | 6.6(15) | 6.4(114) |
That SOS number is good, and two Top 40 wins (possibly three with a victory over Temple) is two more than Western Michigan will ever have. Is that enough to offset two more losses? Probably not, but it would be an interesting debate.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Final Opponent |
Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
| Temple | 0-1 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 6-1 | 80-105 | Navy | 6.0(39) | 4.5(7) |
This won’t be in play if Western Michigan wins, but Temple, even with three losses, actually has a decent resume for that Group of 5 slot. The loss to Army hurts, though, and could be what puts Western Kentucky over the top if they’re being compared.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Final Opponent |
Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
Western Kentucky |
0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 7-0 | 95-125 |
Louisiana Tech |
7.2(5) | 5.1(31) |
There’s no resume here. If being compared to Temple, the Hilltoppers need to push the fact that they have no loss as bad as Temple’s (to Army) and the eye test — because, and the stats back this up, WKU has looked pretty good for much of the season. The two losses to teams not named Alabama were by a combined four points.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Final Opponent |
Off YPP(rank) | Def YPP(rank) |
| Troy | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 7-0 | 110-120 |
Georgia Southern |
5.5(69) | 4.5(21) |
There’s no resume here either. Troy would have to hope that the committee likes a six-point loss to Clemson better than Temple’s entire resume.
