Despite reports to the contrary, I don’t think the College Football Playoff Selection Committee will hold up the bowl selection process to wait on the results of the Army – Navy game.
Yet, that’s what some people are afraid of. And, it actually makes sense when you think about it. If Western Michigan loses to Ohio on Friday night, and Navy wins on Saturday, the Midshipmen would become the top ranked Group of Five team. Given that crazy things can happen in a rivalry game, it seems only reasonable for the committee to wait until after the Army – Navy game to finalize the rankings. After all, an Army win would drop the Midshipmen in the College Football Playoff standings, right?
The last sentence is where I disagree with a lot of college football experts who weighed in on the subject. Sure, it’s logical to say, “Navy lost to Army for the first time since 2001, so it’s out”.
But, in that scenario, what team would take Navy’s place?
It certainly wouldn’t be Western Michigan, which would be out of consideration after losing to Ohio in the MAC Championship Game. Remember, only conference champions are eligible for this bid, so the Broncos – along with Boise State and Houston – aren’t available.
With those three teams out of the mix, there’s not another viable option. Sure, it’s possible that the Sun Belt and Conference USA champions could finish with a similar record (or better in Troy’s case) than Navy, but each of these schools has played a much softer schedule*. Likewise, Ohio couldn’t overtake the Midshipmen since it would have four losses against a weaker slate.
That leaves the Mountain West champion as the only other alternative. San Diego State doesn’t seem like a good fit, because it hasn’t beaten a team ranked in the top 50. Wyoming’s resume is very similar to Navy’s, but the ‘Pokes have lost two of their last three, including a head scratcher to UNLV. Even with a second win over the Aztecs, Wyoming wouldn’t jump the Midshipmen because it has two bad losses (Eastern Michigan and UNLV).
After reading the last three paragraphs, I’ll ask the question again: what team would take Navy’s place if it were to lose to Army?
The obvious answer is, “none”, which is why this scenario doesn’t frighten me as much as it does the bowl representatives.
In fact, I would be more worried about what would happen if Western Michigan wins a close game, while Navy throttles Temple to overtake the Broncos in the CFP standings. If – and it’s a big if – that were to happen, the Army – Navy game would have an impact on the final rankings.
Yet, that situation isn’t a “show stopper”. My distinguished colleague Kevin McGuire provided the Selection Committee with a simple, but elegant solution:
Navy already has spot in the Armed Forces Bowl. MAC & AAC can set up all other bowls and WMU can take Navy’s spot in AFB if Navy goes NY6.
— Kevin McGuire (@KevinOnCFB) November 30, 2016
Does that sound like something that’s going to “paralyze” the bowl system like some are suggesting?
Of course not, which is why I recommend that everyone simply enjoy this weekend’s action and let the chips fall where they may. Yes, it looks like everything is a mess right now, but the teams usually settle the issue on the gridiron during Championship Week. That was definitely the case in 2013 (Michigan State upset Ohio State to quash the OSU – Auburn debate) and 2014 (Ohio State throttled Wisconsin 59-0 to earn the final spot).
Why would things be any different this season?
