It’s January 27. Super Bowl week also marks the run-up to college basketball insanity.
League titles for the most part will be won or lost in the month of February. Contenders and pretenders will show themselves with road wins and home losses. It’s part of what makes the sport so much fun. A large part of the debate doesn’t revolve around who the best teams are, especially in a year when a many writers and fans think Kentucky will run the table. The debate comes down to the bubble teams instead. Resumes are examined like the DaVinci Code. Every game is a major swing one way or the other.
The focus of this piece is on those teams that could be qualified as bubble squads. This will follow the traditional league by league manner. The only difference is I’ll be going off the highest rated leagues on Ken Pom to determine the order of the leagues. All info for top 25/50 wins comes from BB State.
Locks are listed based on the notion that the tournament starts today. Good wins and bad losses have the RPI number of the team listed in front of said team.
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Big 12
Locks – Kansas, Iowa State, West Virginia, Baylor, Texas
Texas has 6 losses to teams in the top 31 in RPI. That’s more of a seeding issue than an NIT issue.
Oklahoma Sooners 12-7, 3-4 (RPI: 27 / SOS: 7 / KP: 12)
Good Wins:
13) Butler
16) Baylor
25) Texas
31) Oklahoma State
49) Tulsa
Bad Losses:
139) Creighton
The Sooners pass the eye test as one of the better teams in the nation, but their current rough patch gives me pause to say they are a lock. After demolishing Texas, OU has lost 4 of 5. Three of those were on the road. OU hasn’t had the luxury of playing Texas Tech or TCU yet. Nothing against TCU, but a team like OU should be able to sweep them. OU should be fine.
Oklahoma State Cowboys 13-6, 3-4 (RPI: 31 / SOS: 33 / KP: 30)
Good Wins:
25) Texas
49) Tulsa
Bad Losses:
117) South Carolina
Outside of the home wins against Texas and Kansas State, the Cowboys haven’t gotten it done this year away from home. The win against Tulsa, which looks a lot better now, came at a neutral site. There are a lot of decent wins — Oregon State, Kansas State, Memphis — but not really anything with a strong hook. In the Big 12, you’ll get chances to pick up huge wins; OSU hosts Baylor and Oklahoma this week to prove that.
Kansas State Wildcats 12-7, 5-2 (RPI: 76 / SOS: 43 / Ken Pom: 70)
Good Wins:
16) Baylor
27) Oklahoma
31) Oklahoma State
40) Texas A&M
Bad Losses:
124) Texas Southern
One of the most disappointing teams in the nation during the non-conference, K-State limped into Big 12 play 7-6 with back to back home losses to Texas Southern and Georgia. A conference-opening loss to Oklahoma State knocked the Wildcats to .500. Since then, this team has charged through the Big 12 to the tune of 5-1. The only other loss was at Iowa State. Most of the wins have come in Manhattan. This week is huge, as KSU hosts WVU tonight, then travels to Lawrence for the Sunflower State Showdown with KU. The Cats are probably out as of now just because of the nothingburger in the non-conference slate.
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Big East
Locks: Villanova, Georgetown, Butler, Providence
The Friars are the most debatable lock at first blush until you see they are 9-2 against the top 100. They do have a couple of questionable losses at Marquette and at Boston College, as well as a horrible loss to Brown. There are wins against Notre Dame and Miami to balance those out.
Xavier Musketeers 13-7, 4-4 (RPI: 33 / SOS: 21 / KP: 24)
Good Wins:
12) Georgetown
41) Seton Hall
47) Alabama
Bad Losses:
126) DePaul
146) Auburn
Xavier has produced six top 100 victories, all of them at home. The Musketeers have four top 100 losses, all of them on the road. Giving away the game at Auburn may end up hurting them the most. The good news for X is that it scheduled very wisely with no terrible opponents. X has a ton of solid wins, while losing to three of the conference locks. Xavier is probably a tournament team, but one in the range of going back to Dayton for the First Four.
Seton Hall Pirates 13-6, 3-4 (RPI: 41 / SOS: 46 / KP: 49)
Good Wins:
5) Villanova
38) St John’s
48) George Washington
Bad Losses:
126) DePaul
Seton Hall was 12-2, 2-0 in the Big East after ringing in 2015 with a win over Villanova. The Pirates have stumbled to a 1-4 mark since. The only win was a one-point victory at winless Creighton. The Pirates have a little lull in their schedule with both Marquette games sandwiching a home game against Xavier and a trip to DePaul. If it’s not a sweep or 3-1 in two weeks, the Hall could be in trouble. Georgetown is followed by a three-game road trip to Providence, Nova and St. John’s, a killer stretch for anyone.
St John’s Red Storm 13-6, 2-4 (RPI: 38 / SOS: 11 / KP: 30)
Good Wins: 17) Providence
Bad Losses: 126) DePaul
Most of the Red Storm’s wins are solid ones against the likes of St. Mary’s, Long Beach State, Syracuse and Minnesota. The win at Providence is the only top 50 chance they’ve snared in six opportunities. Injuries and some awful defense have really hurt the Johnnies in league play. There are still road games at Butler, Villanova, Xavier and Georgetown. In fact, St. John’s plays Xavier and Georgetown four times in fourteen days. This looks like a team that played its best ball in November and December.
http://gty.im/462009014
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ACC
Locks: Virginia, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Duke, Louisville, Miami
There is no way Miami doesn’t make it if the tournament started today, not with how well the Canes have played in the ACC.
Syracuse Orange 14-7, 5-3 (RPI: 62 / SOS: 84 / KP: 72)
Good Wins:
46) Iowa
Bad Losses:
129) California
The Orange have played a ton of close ACC games. At first they were on the sunny side of the scoreboard in a 4-0 start, but now they are on the dark side in a 1-3 slide. Syracuse didn’t finish against Miami and couldn’t close against North Carolina. That ties into their earlier season losses at Michigan and at Villanova. Outside of the Iowa win, Syracuse has beaten no one that really helps the Orange out. It’s hard not seeing this team in the NIT today.
North Carolina State Wolfpack 13-8, 4-4 (RPI: 44 / SOS: 2 / KP: 41
Good Wins:
7) Duke
Bad Losses: None
N.C. State might very well end up ruing that it couldn’t keep Notre Dame off the offensive glass, blowing a late lead before losing in overtime on Sunday. The Wolfpack have the Duke win in seven chances against the top 50. A string of close losses might be what defines this team. It’s hard to make a case for the Wolfpack when it has one great win and nothing else. Their next best win is Tennessee. They pass the eye test, but they don’t pass the smell test if that makes sense. They look great but when peeling back the layers, they are a bit ripe.
Pittsburgh isn’t listed because the Panthers have yet to play a good team within double digits.
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SEC
Locks: Kentucky – Arkansas
LSU Tigers 15-4, 4-2 (RPI: 39 / SOS: 94 / KP: 35)
Good Wins:
18) West Virginia
29) Georgia
Bad Losses:
159) Missouri
LSU is a frustrating team to watch because the talent is there; the Tigers just never seem to put anyone away. Eight of their 19 games have been decided by double figures, and only one of them was in the SEC. That’s how they lose to Missouri and at home to Texas A&M. LSU has won its last three SEC road games, though. The Tigers should pick up four more wins before they host Kentucky. This should be a tournament team. It’s the SEC, however.
Georgia Bulldogs 13-5, 4-2 (RPI: 29 / SOS: 28 / KP: 27)
Good Wins:
41) Seton Hall
Bad Losses: None
Georgia’s two worst losses came in November. The Bulldogs have been a very solid team since then, only losing to Arkansas and LSU in the process. There are noticeable wins like Kansas State, Florida and Ole Miss on the docket. Most importantly, there are no bad losses to make things look bad. Mark Fox’s team would probably make the tournament if it started today, just not as a lead-pipe lock.
Texas A&M Aggies 13-5, 4-2 (RPI: 40 / SOS: 58 / KP: 55)
Good Wins: 39) LSU
Bad Losses: None
Over half of TAMU’s wins are against teams with RPIs worse than 211. Only eight games exist against the top 100. The loss to Kentucky is really huge because that would be the Aggies’ chip into the tournament right now. As it stands, there’s just nothing much here. It’s an okay profile but that’s that.
Tennessee Volunteers 12-6, 4-2 (RPI: 55 / SOS: 40 / KP: 84)
Good Wins:
13) Butler
23) Arkansas
Bad Losses:
113) Marquette
Tennessee has an average profile. The win over Butler is great, as is the win against Arkansas. Four of the five losses to top 50 teams have been by double digits, which is concerning. If Tennessee took care of home court during SEC play (their two losses are at home), it would have a much better case. As is, the Vols need to sweep Arkansas to have any kind of case.
Alabama Crimson Tide 13-6, 3-3 (RPI: 47 / SOS: 41 / KP: 45)
Good Wins:
40) Texas A&M
Bad Losses:
117) South Carolina
Alabama didn’t get anything much done in non-conference play. It was the wrong year to beat UCLA and Arizona State. The Tide have lost 3 of 4 as well. They have a monster week of hosting Florida and traveling to Kentucky.
Mississippi Rebels 12-7, 3-3 (RPI: 52 / SOS: 26 / KP: 34)
Good Wins:
23) Arkansas
26) Cincinnati
Bad Losses:
141) TCU
191) Charleston Southern
Ole Miss has as many bad losses as good wins. That’s never a good thing. Their losses to top 50 teams have been by 3, 4, 5 and 4. There are so many close games they haven’t been able to put away, most famously Kentucky. The schedule sets up nicely for a run until the Rebels host Arkansas on Valentine’s Day. The only games of heft, as of now, are hosting Arkansas and Georgia and going to LSU. This team can’t afford another bad loss.
http://gty.im/462159618
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Big Ten
Locks: Wisconsin – Maryland – Indiana – Ohio State
Iowa Hawkeyes 13-7, 4-3 (RPI: 46 / SOS: 22 / KP: 47)
Good Wins: 11) North Carolina
43) Ohio State (2x)
Bad Losses: None
It is bothersome that everything positive in the top 100 but the North Carolina game came in conference play. The last week was a lot more bothersome, as the Hawkeyes were ripped to shreds at Wisconsin and then lost to Purdue. They host Wisconsin this week for a shot at revenge. Iowa has lost two games in a row three times this season. Never have the Hawkeyes lost three in a row. The worries come if Iowa loses to Wisconsin and then at Michigan. 13-9 is not where you want to be.
Michigan State Spartans 13-7, 4-3 (RPI: 42 / SOS: 19 / KP: 28)
Good Wins:
34) Indiana
46) Iowa
Bad Losses: 124) Texas Southern
The Spartans haven’t played well since the win at Iowa, with wins over Northwestern and Penn State in uninspiring fashion and losses at Maryland Nebraska. Luckily for Sparty, the schedule eases up a lot until Valentine’s Day when it hosts Ohio State. Getting swept by Maryland accounts for two of the three conference losses.
Michigan doesn’t make the cut with no top 50 wins.
Nebraska has a lot of bad losses to make for any good the Michigan State win did.
Illinois is 3-8 against the top 100. That won’t get it done either.
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Pac-12
Locks: Arizona – Utah – Stanford
There isn’t a ton of heft behind Stanford, with one top 50 win, but that’s a team that wouldn’t be ignored in the tournament.
Washington Huskies 14-5, 3-4 (RPI: 54 / SOS: 92 / KP: 65)
Good Wins:
24) San Diego State
27) Oklahoma
Bad Losses:
118) Washington State
129) California
2014 ended with the loss to Stony Brook, and it seems nothing has really gone right for Washington since. The Huskies are 3-4 in the league, highlighted by a pair of bad losses. A trip to Utah ended in a 21-point loss. Washington does host Arizona and Utah before the season ends. This is a borderline team based on the accomplishments of 2014.
Oregon State Beavers 14-5, 5-2 (RPI: 71 / SOS: 135 / KP: 62)
Good Wins:
6) Arizona
Bad Losses:
146) Auburn
195) Quinnipiac
The win against Arizona is all there is to the resume. Still, that’s a major chip not a lot of other teams have. The next best win is UCLA. The next best win after that is Arizona State. There are two horrible losses. I mention Oregon State mainly to shout out Wayne Tinkle for the job he’s done in Corvallis. Oregon State is on the Arizona swing this week. Another sweep would be amazing.
Oregon Ducks 14-6, 4-3 (RPI: 75 / SOS: 70 / KP: 77)
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses:
118) Washington State
Oregon has played two top 50 teams, VCU and Arizona, and lost by a combined 32 points. The Ducks’ best win is Illinois. The next best is Oregon State. Getting swept by the Washington schools really did them no favors. Going to the Arizona schools could snuff out any tournament hopes.
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West Coast
Lock: Gonzaga
St Mary’s Gaels 16-4, 8-1 (RPI: 53 / SOS: 117 / KP: 54)
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses:
222) Northern Arizona
Losing at Gonzaga last week was a shame. In the only games that matter, St. Mary’s has a chance to sweep BYU on February 12. The rematch against Gonzaga is February 21 and might be SMC’s last best shot at the tournament.
BYU Cougars 15-7, 5-4 (RPI: 66 / SOS: 74 / KP: 39
Good Wins:
30) Stanford
Bad Losses:
171) Pepperdine
182) San Diego
The Cougars whiffed against Gonzaga and Utah in winnable home games. They couldn’t get San Diego State in Maui, nor could they win at St. Mary’s. BYU is 13-7 against D-1 schools. As much fun as they are, the Cougars don’t seem like an NCAA team. They visit Gonzaga February 28.
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Atlantic 10
Locks: VCU, Dayton
Dayton’s worst loss is to Connecticut. That’s not too bad. They don’t have quality wins but there is nothing holding back the Flyers. They won’t blow this advantage in league play.
George Washington Colonials 16-4, 6-1 (RPI: 48 / SOS: 180 / KP: 56)
Good Wins:
15) Wichita State
Bad Losses: None
Penn State and LaSalle are the worst two losses — both could end up out of the top 100. That would hurt the profile a bit. George Washington has five games against VCU, Davidson and Dayton remaining, so the Colonials will have some chances to improve the resume, starting tonight with a trip to VCU.
Davidson Wildcats 14-4, 5-2 (RPI: 36 / SOS: 108 / KP: 32)
Good Wins:
28) Dayton
Bad Losses: None
Davidson’s worst loss is at Richmond, which is 81st in the RPI. The other three losses are to Virginia, VCU and North Carolina. The only good wins are during league play, a deterrent. VCU has to go to Davidson late in the season. The A-10 could be a sneaky league with a big tournament representation.
Rhode Island has home games against GW and Davidson and a trip to Dayton. Unless they swept the regular season, I don’t really see a way the Rams would make a case. URI’s best win is Nebraska.
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AAC
Locks: SMU, Cincinnati
Cincinnati has four top 50 wins. The only top 50 loss is the same day that Mick Cronin told the team he wouldn’t be coaching. If the tournament was today, they wouldn’t be excluded. Nor would SMU, whose worst loss is at Indiana.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane 14-5, 7-0 (RPI: 49 / SOS: 123 / KP: 59)
Good Wins:
50) Temple
Bad Losses:
197) Oral Roberts
Tulsa famously lost a game to Southeast Oklahoma State in December. That doesn’t count on their bad losses since it wasn’t a D-1 team. The next game was a beating by Oklahoma. Tulsa hasn’t lost since, winning nine straight. Oral Roberts was the season opener, so that comes with some leniency… or so you would expect. There’s a large number of wins but none of much quality. Tulsa doesn’t play SMU until February 7. Wins against Temple, UConn and Memphis look nice, but that’s all the Golden Hurricane has in the top 100. This is probably an at-large team, but it’s tough to say for sure. We just saw an AAC team with a shiny record and nothing significant in the non-conference end up in the NIT.
Connecticut Huskies 11-7, 4-2 (RPI: 79 / SOS: 51 / KP: 58)
Good Wins:
26) Cincinnati
28) Dayton
Bad Losses: None
The worst loss UConn currently sports is to Ivy League leader Yale. The buzzer beater losses to Texas and Yale look huge. The Huskies play a gigantic game at Cincinnati Thursday night. UConn also hosts Tulsa and still has all four meetings with Memphis and SMU, as well as a road game at Temple. There are chances for the Huskies to get wins.
Temple Owls 13-7, 4-3 (RPI: 50 / SOS: 39 / KP: 82)
Good Wins:
1) Kansas
Bad Losses:
110) UNLV
170) St Joe’s
The Owls are perched at 3-5 against the top 100. A three-game losing streak in the league against the top three teams dented their resume. There are road games at Memphis, SMU and Tulsa waiting, as well as home games against Cincinnati and UConn. Anything more than two losses leaves them very vulnerable. This seems like a classic bubble team which ends up on the outside looking in.
Memphis is 2-6 against the top 100 with one of the wins being North Carolina Central — there just isn’t enough there.
http://gty.im/461154554
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Mountain West
Locks: San Diego State
Wyoming Cowboys 17-3, 6-1 (RPI: 78 / SOS: 236 / KP: 75)
Good Wins:
32) Colorado State
Bad Losses:
129) California
11 of the 17 wins come against teams with RPIs worse than 223 or teams that are non D-1 schools. The best non-con chip is Colorado. Sweeping Colorado State would be very big, as would splitting with San Diego State. With the lack of work done in 2014, losses to anyone but those two could spell doom.
Colorado State Rams 18-2, 5-2 (RPI: 32 / SOS: 156 / KP: 61)
Good Wins:
24) San Diego State
Bad Losses: None
The only losses were to Wyoming and at New Mexico. The only top 50 games are going to be the two with San Diego State. The Rams also beat Colorado in the non-con. Colorado State is done with Wyoming, New Mexico and San Diego State will be played by Valentine’s Day. The Rams will know what work they have to do in the MWC tournament.
http://gty.im/459364144
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Other Leagues
Locks: Wichita State – Northern Iowa
Old Dominion Monarchs 15-4, 4-3 (RPI: 45 / SOS: 136 / KP: 68)
Good Wins:
4) VCU
39) LSU
Bad Losses:
114) Illinois State
136) Middle Tennessee
There’s also a win against Richmond that puts ODU at 3-1 against the top 100. The only loss is to Western Kentucky. The Monarchs have lost their last three Conference USA road games. The great news is they play only four road games the rest of the regular season, the toughest at UTEP. If they don’t trip up, this team could very well get an at large with those gigantic resume boosters.
Green Bay Phoenix 17-4, 6-1 (RPI: 65 / SOS: 212 / KP: 50)
Good Wins:
37) Miami
Bad Losses:
120) UC-Irvine
187) Oakland
Green Bay is 3-1 against the top 100 with wins against Evansville and Valparaiso. The loss to Oakland is really rough. The win against Miami is what makes them relevant. Green Bay can’t afford another loss during the regular season if it wants a reprieve for a conference tournament exit.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 14-5, 7-0 (RPI: 68 / SOS: 110 / KP: 99)
Good Wins:
45) Old Dominion
Bad Losses: None
The bad losses could change — Belmont is 100 in the RPI. Still, Western Kentucky has won 9 straight games since being 5-5. The Hilltoppers have played extremely well, starting with the Louisville game, until today. The main cause has been that seven of the games were at home. Western has only four home games left against seven road games. The only way WKU will have a shot at an at-large is by winning out.
Stephen F. Austin went 0-3 in its key games. Despite not losing anything else, that’s just not good enough. Sorry.
Valpo is 19-4 with zero top 50 games, period.
Kent State’s best win was Toledo last week. It’s KSU’s only top 100 win.
Central Michigan has as many losses to teams with RPIs worse than 212 as it does wins against teams in the top 100. That’s a bad combo if you are in the MAC. The MAC is a very solid league with no truly great team. It’s kind of a shame no one will be rewarded.
Louisiana Tech has a pretty 15-5 record with no top 100 wins.
Evansville beat Northern Iowa. That’s about it. The Purple Acese have to pretty much run out, which is going to be hard since they go to Wichita State and Northern Iowa back to back.
