A year ago, the Texas Longhorns were expected to crash and burn. Instead, they made their way to the NCAA tournament, and Rick Barnes appeared to have rescued himself in Austin.
This season, the exact opposite could happen, but this bubble weekend gives the Horns a chance to avoid a miserable Selection Sunday afternoon in front of CBS cameras.
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Texas travels to Lawrence on Saturday, fighting for its tournament life. The Longhorns are in desperate need of a quality conference win, or just a quality win of any kind.
Texas comes into the game 17-11 overall and a sub-pedestrian 6-9 in the Big 12. Four of those conference wins are against the only teams behind the Longhorns in the conference – Texas Tech and TCU. One is against Kansas State, which is just one game ahead of them. The final conference win may be the only quality win the Longhorns have all season, and that took a historically bad performance by West Virginia, in which WVU hit only 13 shots for the game.
In the non-conference portion of the season, Texas beat Iowa for a marginally impressive win. However, do wins over California and UConn still qualify as good wins? In December, the Longhorns lost to right-on-the-bubble Stanford and at Kentucky. It almost feels as though Texas is getting more credit than it should for the bubble just based on the talented players Rick Barnes’ squad boasts of this season. Just because Texas started in the top 10 does not mean it cannot be NIT-bound in March.
However, all of this could change on Saturday with a win at Kansas. A win in Lawrence could be just the victory that pushes Texas over the top in the bubble battle, despite the underwhelming resume thus far.
In addition, this game will be one of the Longhorns’ last chances for a quality win before the conference tournament. In March, they host Baylor, which would provide an opportunity, but is that really enough to get them in? Doubtful. Despite all of their struggles this season, Joe Lunardi still has Texas battling for a 12 seed with Davidson.
While a win could help push Texas over the top, a huge loss could be just as devastating. Not only would it be demoralizing to the Longhorns, it would also fit into a trend in conference play against the top teams. Kansas beat them by 13 in the first contest, and Texas has lost to Oklahoma by 21 at home, and by 23 at Baylor. The exceptions are Iowa State and West Virginia. Both games against the Cyclones were close contests.
Beyond that tendency to get blown out, Texas will be facing a Kansas team out for blood after the loss to Kansas State. The Jayhawks will be motivated to add to the list of lopsided Longhorn losses.
KU is playing for seeding and the chance to retake control of the Big 12 after being given a gift by Baylor on Wednesday night. Kansas was in genuine danger of losing its hold on the conference. Iowa State could have barreled through the door and put itself in position to win the league outright. However, the Cyclones’ paralyzed performance down the stretch against a Baylor team that got hot and stayed hot behind the three-point line offered Kansas a second chance. The Jayhawks know that if they win their next two games, they will clinch a share of the conference title, regardless of what happens with their regular-season finale against Oklahoma on March 7. The Longhorns know they must play their best game of the season to prevail.
So, let’s summarize Texas’ situation: The Longhorns must be at their very best against a tough and wounded opponent playing in its intimidating arena, Allen Fieldhouse, or face the very real prospect of falling to the NIT and watching their season go down in flames.
No pressure, Longhorns. No pressure at all.
