Championship Week is one of the best times of the year, a time when the Davids of the world get a chance to feel like Goliath. It is a chance for teams from leagues like the Atlantic Sun, SWAC, and Big Sky get to play on ESPN, and get a chance to make it to college basketball’s ultimate prize, the NCAA tournament.
Among all these conference tournaments, the tournaments with only one bid on the line are truly the best, if the most unfair. Two months of conference play get reduced to a mere week of hectic, winner-take-all basketball played with a desperation unseen at other times of the year. A top seed’s heart can get broken, or a sub-.500 team can win three games in three days and make it to the Dance. If you’re looking for tournaments to watch out for, make sure to keep an eye on these five:
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1. Big Sky
Sacramento State has the inside track on its first conference championship. The Hornets have not even had a winning season since becoming a Division I program. However, NCAA tournament dreams could be dashed by three other contenders. Perennial power Montana; Eastern Washington, which upset Indiana earlier this year; and Northern Arizona all sit within striking distance of the Hornets.
The chief concern among these teams is Eastern Washington. The Eagles are the top ranked Big Sky team in KenPom at 140, have a win at Indiana, and a single-digit loss at SMU. They’re also 18th in the nation in 3-point shooting, and are one of the fastest playing teams in the country, which provides for some entertaining games. Speaking of entertainment, Eastern Washington shoots 39.6 percent on 3-pointers as a team in conference play, but that just ranks fifth in the conference. Sacramento State leads at 42.9 percent. Come for the atmosphere, stay for the long-range bombing.
The regular season champion gets to host the tournament, which is good for the league but bad for potential upsets. Still, the Big Sky will no doubt feature a lot of excitement.
2. Patriot
Ever since reading John Feinstein’s book about the league, The Last Amateurs, I have kept an eye on the Patriot, which has produced some big upsets in tournament play, most recently 15-seed Lehigh’s defeat of Duke in the 2012 tournament. This year the league probably doesn’t have NBA talent as it did when C.J. McCollum played for Lehigh or Mike Muscala for Bucknell, but there is an interesting mix of teams competing in this year’s tournament.
The top six teams in the league get a bye, and the higher seed gets to host each game. That is of particular importance to Bucknell, which won the regular season title. The Bison have lost just one home game in the league, to Colgate, the 2 seed, but have lost to the third seed, Lehigh, and fourth-seeded Lafayette as well, providing for a potentially wide open tournament.
The first round of the tournament will feature an Army-Navy meeting. The Midshipmen swept the regular season series against the Cadets, and also defeated 2-seed Colgate, the potential opponent, at Colgate earlier this season. Bucknell has lost to 8-seed Holy Cross in what could be a quarterfinal meeting as well, which offers an added layer of intrigue to the tournament.
3. Horizon
Valpo has won the league in three of the last four years, but will have a lot of competition this year from three teams that finished within two games of the Crusaders. Valpo has struggled a bit offensively this year, but allowed a league-best 95.5 points per possession in conference play.
Valpo’s biggest stumbling block will likely be Green Bay, which features presumptive conference player of the year Keifer Sykes. He has struggled beyond the arc this year, but has excelled everywhere else for the Phoenix. Both of the top two seeds get byes all the way into the semifinals, and the top remaining seed will get to host the championship, which bodes well for both Valpo and Green Bay.
One team that will have the ability to crash the party is Oakland, which led the league in offense, enough to rank 51st in the nation in KenPom. Oakland had a rough nonconference slate, starting just 4-10, but the Grizzlies have really improved defensively, allowing a point per possession or fewer in the team’s final four games.
4. Sun Belt
The Sun Belt is the third fastest conference in terms of possessions per game, and had three teams tie for the regular season title. Speed plus unpredictability makes for a great conference tournament, and it should do so here as well.
The league hosts the tournament at a neutral site this year in New Orleans, which might give Louisiana-Monroe and Lafayette an advantage over the two Georgia schools gunning for the title.
Sun Belt home teams won just 55 percent of the games in conference play, one of the lower marks across the country. Georgia State looks like the favorite with Ryan Harrow, R.J. Hunter, and Kevin Ware, but Georgia Southern narrowly lost to Illinois and Lafayette took Florida to overtime earlier in the year, so this looks like it will come down to the wire and provide one of the better conference tournaments this March.
5. MAAC
The MAAC doesn’t have many explosive offenses or stout defenses, but what that leaves us with is a conference where a bunch (forgive the pun) of teams are bunched together. Almost a third of the games in conference play finished with a margin of fewer than four points or in overtime, which was tops in the nation.
Iona looks like the favorite, especially with the 42nd-ranked offense in KenPom, a clear outlier in the league. However, even though the Gaels finished 17-3 in league play, they won 10 of those games by six points or fewer, or in overtime. The title game will be in Albany regardless of who plays in it, so Iona’s undefeated record at home this year won’t help the Gaels.
Second-seeded Rider ranks just seventh in the league in offense, and has three overtime wins and three others decided by three points or fewer. The Broncs lead the league defensively, but a lot of that looks like 3-point luck, and if that goes away they could be prone to an upset.
With so many games decided by such small margins, the MAAC tournament, which will be on ESPN3 starting with the quarters on March 7, will definitely be one to tune into… just not if you have trouble getting to sleep.
