The regular season has come to a close and teams are vying for a spot in the field of 68. Major conference tournaments will get underway this week and a number of bubble spots could disappear.
Teams in all caps are projected to be conference champions. Conference winners will account for 32 of the 68 spots in the field. In addition to the 32 projected champions, 25 other teams are currently considered to be solidly in, leaving just 11 spots for teams on the bubble.
The following projections account for all games through Monday, March 9th. Our next projection will come before Selection Sunday.
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Criteria
“Solidly in” means a team would have no doubts about whether or not it would be in the field of 68 were the NCAA tournament to start today.
Key Wins are victories over any team currently projected to be solidly in the field, or any conference champion or projected conference champion with a top-100 RPI.
Bad Losses are losses to teams who were not even on the bubble as of Friday. Teams that were on Friday’s breakdown, but have fallen off the bubble are not considered bad losses. Those schools are: Connecticut, George Washington, UMASS, Memphis, Minnesota, Sam Houston State, St. Mary’s, Vanderbilt and Wyoming. Bad losses include conference champions or projected conference champions with a RPI below 150.
Projected conference champions in CAPS
ACC
There were no changes this week with the ACC bubble.
Solidly In: VIRGINIA, Notre Dame, Duke, North Carolina, Louisville
On the Bubble:
Miami (20-11, 10-8 ACC)
RPI: 62
Key Wins: Duke
Bad Losses: Eastern Kentucky, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest
As of Now: Out. Miami needs to make noise in the ACC Tournament to feel good about its NCAA chances.
N.C. State (19-12, 10-8 ACC)
RPI: 45
Key Wins: Boise State, Louisiana Tech, Duke, Louisville, North Carolina
Bad Losses: Wake Forest, Clemson, Boston College
As of Now: In. A victory over Pitt on Wednesday and the Wolfpack should be dancing.
Pittsburgh (19-13, 8-10 ACC)
RPI: 67
Key Wins: North Carolina, Notre Dame
Bad Losses: Hawaii, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State
As of Now: Out. Pittsburgh was held to 52 points and 33 percent shooting in a bad loss to FSU on Saturday.
AAC
Memphis and Connecticut have fallen off the bubble.
Solidly In: SMU
On the Bubble:
Cincinnati (22-9, 13-5 AAC)
RPI: 34
Key Wins: San Diego State, SMU (twice)
Bad Losses: Nebraska, East Carolina, Tulane
As of Now: In. Things seem fairly safe for the Bearcats.
Temple (22-9, 13-5 AAC)
RPI: 31
Key Wins: Louisiana Tech, Kansas
Bad Losses: St. Joe’s, UNLV
As of Now: In. The Owls benefit from a pair of solid non-conference victories and a very good RPI.
Tulsa (21-9, 14-4 AAC)
RPI: 47
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: SE Oklahoma State, Oral Roberts
As of Now: Out. Tulsa missed a huge opportunity on Sunday against SMU.
Atlantic 10
George Washing and UMASS have fallen off the bubble.
Solidly In: DAVIDSON, Dayton, Virginia Commonwealth
On the Bubble:
Rhode Island (21-8, 13-5 A-10)
RPI: 71
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: Georgia Tech, St. Joseph’s
As of Now: Out. No signature wins and a lackluster RPI has the Rams thinking NIT.
Richmond (19-12, 12-6 A-10)
RPI: 54
Key Wins: Virginia Commonwealth (twice), Davidson
Bad Losses: James Madison, Wake Forest, George Mason
As of Now: Out. Richmond has come on strong of late, but still has noise to make in the A-10 Tournament.
Big 12
Oklahoma State falls from solidly in to the bubble.
Solidly In: KANSAS, Oklahoma, Iowa State, West Virginia, Baylor
On the Bubble:
Oklahoma State (18-12, 8-10 Big 12)
RPI: 46
Key Wins: Kansas, Baylor (twice)
Bad Losses: South Carolina, Kansas State, TCU, Texas Tech
As of Now: In. Thursday’s match-up with Oklahoma could decide whether the Cowboys are in or out.
Texas (19-12, 8-10 Big 12)
RPI: 43
Key Wins: West Virginia, Baylor
Bad Losses: None
As of Now: In. No bad losses and a respectable RPI has Texas in very good shape.
Big East
There were no changes on the Big East bubble.
Solidly In: VILLANOVA, Butler, Georgetown, Providence, St. John’s
On the Bubble:
Xavier (19-12, 9-9 Big East)
RPI: 38
Key Wins: Georgetown (twice), Providence, Butler
Bad Losses: Long Beach State, Auburn, DePaul, Creighton, Seton Hall
As of Now: In. The Musketeers have four solid wins and a great RPI. The bad losses however, makes Xavier the last team in.
Big Ten
Minnesota falls off the bubble.
Solidly In: WISCONSIN, Maryland, Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa, Purdue
On the Bubble:
Illinois (19-12, 9-9 Big Ten)
RPI: 61
Key Wins: Baylor, Maryland, Michigan State
Bad Losses: Michigan, Nebraska
As of Now: In. Illinois needs to top Michigan on Thursday.
of the Indiana Hoosiers during the game against the Minnesota Golden Golphers at Assembly Hall on February 15, 2015 in Bloomington, Indiana.
Indiana (19-12, 9-9 Big Ten)
RPI: 58
Key Wins: SMU, Butler, Ohio State, Maryland
Bad Losses: Northwestern, Eastern Washington
As of Now: In. The Hoosiers are reeling, but still have four very good wins and very few bad losses.
Mountain West
Wyoming falls off the bubble.
Solidly In: BOISE STATE, San Diego State, Colorado State
The Mountain West bubble is empty.
Pac-12
There are no changes on the Pac-12 bubble.
Solidly In: ARIZONA, Utah, Oregon
On the Bubble:
Stanford (18-12, 9-9 Pac-12)
RPI: 57
Key Wins: Wofford
Bad Losses: DePaul, Washington State, Colorado, Arizona State
As of Now: Out. Stanford needs to reach at least the Pac-12 final.
UCLA (19-12, 11-7 Pac-12)
RPI: 51
Key Wins: Utah, Oregon
Bad Losses: Alabama, Colorado, Arizona State, California
As of Now: Out. The Bruins currently sit on the outside, but could play their way into the field.
SEC
Ole Miss falls from solidly in to the bubble. Alabama falls off the bubble.
Solidly In: KENTUCKY, Arkansas
On the Bubble:
Georgia (20-10, 11-7 SEC)
RPI: 41
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: Georgia Tech, South Carolina (twice), Auburn
As of Now: Out. Despite a high RPI, the Bulldogs simply lack a NCAA resume’.
LSU (22-9, 11-7 SEC)
RPI: 48
Key Wins: West Virginia, Arkansas
Bad Losses: Missouri, Mississippi State, Auburn, Clemson, Tennessee
As of Now: In. LSU picked up a huge road victory in Fayetteville on Saturday.
Ole Miss (20-11, 11-7 SEC)
RPI: 50
Key Wins: Oregon, Arkansas
Bad Losses: Charleston Southern, TCU, Western Kentucky
As of Now: Out. In less than three weeks, Ole Miss has gone from solidly in to out of the tournament.
Texas A&M (20-10, 11-7 SEC)
RPI: 54
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: Kansas State, Florida, Alabama (twice)
As of Now: Out. No key wins and back-to-back bad losses has the Aggies thinking NIT.
Others
Wichita State falls from the projected Missouri Valley Conference champion to solidly in. Northern Iowa moves from solidly in to being the Missouri Valley Conference champion. Iona falls from the projected MAAC champion to the bubble. Green Bay, Sam Houston State and St. Mary’s fall off the bubble. Murray State falls from the projected Ohio Valley Conference champion to the bubble.
Solidly In: Wichita State
On the Bubble: BYU, Iona, Murray State, Old Dominion, UTEP
Bubble Teams Currently In: BYU, Old Dominion
Bubble Teams Currently Out: Iona, Murray State, UTEP
Overview: Thanks to a win in the WCC semifinals on Monday, BYU looks to be pretty safe. Old Dominion has a top 40 RPI and made noise in the non-conference with wins over LSU and VCU, but still needs to play well in the Conference USA Tournament. UTEP probably needs to reach at least the final of that tournament to have a chance of snagging an at-large bid. Murray State and Iona each have stellar overall records, but have lackluster RPIs and lacked quality wins out of conference.
Tickets Punched: North Florida (A-Sun), Coastal Carolina (Big South), Northeastern (CAA), Manhattan (MAAC), Northern Iowa (MVC), Belmont (OVC), Wofford (SoCon)
Notable Projected Conference Champions: Louisiana Tech (C-USA), Valparaiso (Horizon), Harvard (Ivy), Central Michigan (MAC), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Georgia State (Sun Belt), Gonzaga (WCC)
*RPI numbers via Yahoo Sports
