The NCAA tournament brackets have been released. Have a look.
It’s time to assess The Road To The Final Four in various ways. One way is to evaluate which teams received favorable or harsh bracket paths.
Keep this in mind: The following list is not limited to the teams that have a really good shot at the Final Four. This list includes such teams, but it also applies to teams that have good paths to the Elite Eight, Sweet 16, or even just the round of 32. You’ll see.
Here we go:
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10 – UTAH
Yes, Stephen F. Austin — the springer of a 12-5 upset last year against VCU — is not an easy round-of-64 foe. Yet, Utah gets to play that game in Portland, the subregional site it wanted all along. A team seeded outside the top four lines should generally expect to play outside its geographically proximate pod. Utah, though, stayed home with a 5 seed. Its fans can travel to Portland for the weekend.
Moreover, Utah’s 4 seed is Georgetown. If the Hoyas do get past Eastern Washington, Utah should love its chances of getting to the Sweet 16, which would be a very satisfying result for the Utes in light of what they accomplished during the regular season. Utah had the look of a flatlining team the past month. This draw should give the Utes a reasonable chance of making the second weekend, which would be a boon for the program.
9 – SAN DIEGO STATE
This is the only example on the board of a team getting a great round-of-64 draw… and nothing but. Yet, if you’re in a mid-level seeding range, being able to win that first tournament game and earn a shot at a big dog is all you can reasonably ask for.
San Diego State should not test Duke in the round of 32, but the Aztecs — more than any other team in an 8-9 game — received a uniquely favorable break. They drew St. John’s, which announced on Sunday that center Chris Obekpa will be suspended for two weeks for a violation of team rules. That’s a one-game jackpot for Team Tenochtitlan. The Aztecs should win one game in a season short-circuited by Dwayne Polee’s (worrisome) health problems.
8 – WICHITA STATE
Hold on — the Shockers received a favorable path by drawing KANSAS in the round of 32? How can that be?
Well, this is an exceptional case. The Shockers are loving this draw not because of their odds of winning a couple games, but simply because they’ve wanted Kansas for a very long time. The Jayhawks — Big Brother in the Sunflower State — won’t play them. Wichita will relish playing KU… provided it can get past Indiana first. The Hoosiers might need a new coach, too… and if they do fire Tom Crean, a fellow named Gregg Marshall is going to be the subject of plenty of chatter. (Whether or not he’d want the job is his choice.)
At any rate, Wichita State is happy to have this path, so that’s why the Shockers are on this list.
7 – NORTH CAROLINA
The Tar Heels expect to make Final Fours or at least contend for them in Elite Eights, so making a Sweet 16 isn’t where this program expects to be.
That said, North Carolina hasn’t gotten out of the first weekend since 2012, so it would be very important for the Tar Heels to get to the second weekend this year. Entering the ACC tournament, it was reasonable to think that UNC was on the 5 line. Beating Louisville and Virginia pushed the Heels to the 4 line. Did Carolina draw a 5 seed in its opening-weekend pod which it should be able to beat? Yes.
Arkansas is talented, but the Hogs are in many ways the same scattered, erratic team Carolina itself is. UNC should relish being able to play an up-tempo game, which is where it’s most comfortable. This is a good path to the second weekend, which has always been the most realistic (high) expectation for the 2015 Tar Heels. West Virginia and Northern Iowa would have been much tougher 5 seeds for UNC. Moreover, this Harvard team is not as good as last year’s team. The Tar Heels really should get to the Sweet 16, and they might be able to recruit at a higher level if they can achieve that in the coming days.
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6 – OKLAHOMA
The Sooners haven’t won an NCAA tournament game since 2009, and they’re 0-2 under Lon Kruger. This team has looked like a first-game out over the past month. Oklahoma hasn’t played to the full extent of its capabilities since a win over Iowa State on Feb. 9. The notion of OU making the second weekend has seemed quite remote, despite the promise of a high seed this team has in fact attained at No. 3.
Therefore, the draw the Sooners have been given should make them very optimistic. Albany is not a piece of cake, but the Great Danes do remain a program that plays 30 to 35 quality minutes in NCAA tournament games, not all 40. If the Sooners get past that game, they would either face a play-in game winner (Boise State or Dayton), which would be tired after playing a third game in five days, or a solid but unimposing Providence side. Providence could very easily beat Oklahoma, but the Friars do not have the dominant big man who can make the Sooners’ shaky interior players look overmatched. That’s a first-weekend draw OU should be thankful for. A Sweet 16 would definitely move this program forward.
5 – NOTRE DAME
The easy response here is, “HUH? Notre Dame is in Kentucky’s region, so goodbye, Final Four.”
That’s true.
However, Notre Dame has NEVER made the Elite Eight under Mike Brey. It would be a tremendous achievement for the program to get to the Elite Eight. The bracket is conducive to just such a run for the Fighting Irish.
First off, if Notre Dame has to play Kansas, the Irish have a veteran backcourt that can outplay the Jayhawks on the perimeter by a considerable margin. Notre Dame inspires more confidence than Kansas because it has better knockdown shooters at the moment.
However, Notre Dame might not even face KU. The Jayhawks could get taken out by Wichita State. The Shockers — provided they can get past Indiana — will be so focused on beating Kansas that a letdown seems likely against Notre Dame in the Sweet 16.
The Elite Eight is very attainable for Notre Dame. The Irish can bring Mike Brey to that round for the first time as a head coach.
4 – GONZAGA
The Zags didn’t stay in the West Region, but everything else about their placement works for them. They do not face a cutthroat 7 seed in their first-weekend pod (Iowa, which lost to Penn State the other day in the Big Ten tournament). They are in a region without a punishing defensive team that can grind them down… unless they play Utah in the Elite Eight, which is not very likely. Duke, a weak defensive team, is the best matchup for the Zags among the four top seeds. Gonzaga has a chance to do something with this bracket.
3 – IOWA STATE
The Cyclones’ revved-up offense, powered by a vast array of skilled and well-rounded basketball stylists, is exactly what could run roughshod over both Gonzaga and Duke, the top two seeds in the South. Iowa State would have hated to play Virginia in a 2-3 Sweet 16 game. The Cyclones would have hated to be the 3 seed in Kentucky’s or Wisconsin’s region. They can move to the Final Four from this bracket.
2 – KENTUCKY
The Wildcats shouldn’t be threatened on the Road To the Final Four… and that’s not a problem at all.
Sound bracketing principles SHOULD make the path comparatively easier for the strongest No. 1 seed. The weakest 1 seed should have a tougher path. Speaking of which…
1 – DUKE
The Blue Devils weren’t one of the top two No. 1 seeds. They were third on the 1-68 seed list released by the Selection Committee on Sunday evening. Yet, for being third on the 1 line, Duke was given a bracket with a team many would consider to be the weakest 2 seed (Gonzaga), even though the Zags finished seventh, ahead of Kansas (eighth). Duke’s 3 seed is Iowa State, a potent team but not a menacing defensive team. Duke’s 4 seed is Georgetown, and the Hoyas’ NCAA tournament struggles have been well documented. Duke will face tough defenses in San Diego State (most likely) and then Utah, but neither the Aztecs nor the Utes have the weapons which can expose the Blue Devils’ soft defense. None of Duke’s most probable opponents in the South Region possess great offense-defense balance; they’re all conspicuously weak at one end of the court.
Duke really couldn’t have asked for a better path to the Final Four.
