The First Four is underway, but the round of 64 (your ever-available way to avoid using incorrect round-based terminology) doesn’t start until Thursday. Which round-of-64 games are the most important ones?
Before giving you the top five, a word about UCLA and SMU. One could very easily include this game on the list as a referendum on UCLA itself; the Pac-12; The American; and the ability of both teams to beat an at-large-level opponent on the road in a non-conference game. Neither UCLA nor SMU beat an at-large NCAA tournament team in non-conference play this season.
Yet, this game is not being included on the list because SMU has been set up to fail. Playing three games in three days with a Sunday conference tournament final, followed by a Thursday-Saturday NCAA pod, could leave the Ponies expressly exhausted… in which case, a loss to UCLA just wouldn’t hold much value as a commentary on the Mustangs themselves.
Here are five games with more meaning to one or both of the participants:
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5 – EASTERN WASHINGTON vs. GEORGETOWN (SOUTH)
The Hoyas have made it a habit — no, not just losing early-round NCAA tournament games, but losing to teams seeded seven, eight, nine notches lower (or more). Losing as a 2 seed to a 15 or a 10, or as a 3 to an 11 or a 14 — Georgetown not only fails to play up to its seeding, but flames out with great regularity.
It could easily be argued that Georgetown should have been a 6 or 7 seed in this tournament, so the idea that the Hoyas have to make the Sweet 16 in this particular season is not something which should be pursued with great argumentative vigor. Other Georgetown teams have been in much better positions to make the second weekend. The Hoyas DO have to get past the round of 64, though. If they don’t, a miserable March reputation over the past decade will continue to obscure the good work John Thompson III does in the regular season.
4 – WOFFORD vs. ARKANSAS (WEST)
The Wofford Terriers have never won an NCAA tournament game, so their task is readily apparent. Mike Young is a rising coaching star, but winning a Dance contest would certainly move him a lot closer to a long look from a Power 5 program.
As for Arkansas, the Razorbacks were clearly the second-best SEC team all season long — they were second-best in the regular season and second in the SEC tournament. If they bomb out in the round of 64, the SEC will be savaged in the press… and with good reason. The Hogs have to grab one game, even though they’ve been away from Bracketville for a few years and could reasonably claim that this season has been solid solely due to an NCAA appearance.
3 – TEXAS vs. BUTLER (MIDWEST)
Rick Barnes might be coaching for his job… in which case, Texas fans might actually want Butler to win this game. Regardless of whether Barnes stays or not, the mere possibility that he could be coaching for his job in this game makes it very significant.
2 – LSU vs. NORTH CAROLINA STATE (EAST)
This is the only other game on the list which could have been No. 1.
LSU coach Johnny Jones has to show that he can accomplish something in March. These Bayou Bengals are far too talented to have accumulated so many bad losses this season. Jones is continuing to bring in quality recruits, but he has to show he can “coach ’em up,” or else the oft-tortured LSU basketball program will continue to send its fans to the psych ward.
This game is important on a larger level beyond reasons pertaining to LSU and Jones. This is the best of the four 8-9 games; more specifically, it features two teams with more than enough talent to go toe-to-toe with Villanova in the round of 32. Will this game produce a team that’s ready to beat Villanova, or will this be a comedy of errors in which the winning team is merely the survivor, the side which managed to minimize mistakes? That’s a key question — arguably THE key question — in the top half of the East Region bracket.
1 – INDIANA vs. WICHITA STATE (MIDWEST)
The stakes and the storylines could not be greater in a 7-10 game. Tom Crean of Indiana might have bought himself another year by making the NCAA tournament, but if he loses this game to the above-pictured Gregg Marshall — an elite coach who might one day scratch the proverbial itch and migrate to a top-tier program — he will certainly lose even more leverage heading into the 2015-2016 season.
As for Wichita State, the Shockers — placed against one of the most storied programs in college basketball history — are mindful of a game beyond this one with Indiana. The Shox want to get a crack at Big Brother in the Sunflower State. Beating Indiana means an almost-certain date with Kansas, a confrontation WSU has desired for a very, very long time.
No round-of-64 game overflows with tension and significance more than this one.
