Mid-Major conference teams are still clearly the Rodney Dangerfield of the NCAA Tournament brackets. They just don’t get any respect.
The only non-Power Five conference team that received a seed above a five seed was Gonzaga… and do the Zags really count as a non-power team these days?
Northern Iowa lost three… yes, three… games this season. These losses were to fellow NCAA Tournament squads in VCU (in double overtime) and Wichita State, and a slightly bad road loss at Evansville. How does the committee award the team that beat Stephen F. Austin, Iowa, and Wichita State? They gave them the dreaded five seed.
As every person with a pulse who follows college basketball knows, the 12 seeds should almost be favored over the fives. The reason for this is because of the perennial under-seeding of mid-major squads that just don’t get the respect of the committee.
Since Northern Iowa has lived on the opposite end of the spectrum as a 12 seed, the Panthers will not fall into this trap against Wyoming. While they are under-seeded, the Panthers are still geared up for a deep run.
Another 12 is the aforementioned Stephen F. Austin. The Lumberjacks have lost seven games in the last two seasons. How does the committee reward them? You are seeing a trend here… a 12. As a 12 seed last season, the ‘Jacks showed the committee what they could do with a win, and they return nearly the same roster. The Lumberjacks will win at least one tournament game this season — they were grossly under-seeded and will likely be one of the last 16 standing this season.
Next up is another MVC squad in Wichita State. The Shockers lost four games this season. Two were to tournament teams in Northern Iowa and Utah. Wichita State, which was the eighth-ranked team in the nation when it lost to Illinois State in the MVC tournament, received a seven seed. Just soak that in and let it marinate for a bit. The Shockers are another team that is capable of winning a pair of games in March Madness. They do not have the strongest region, nor do they have Arizona’s tendency to fall into prolonged scoring droughts.
The next under-seeded team is Davidson. The Wildcats, at a 10 seed, won that many games in a row prior to a loss in the A-10 tournament semifinals to VCU. Davidson was just as hot as many other teams, but that committee made it clear that end-of-season form only works in favor of Power 5 conference teams. The Wildcats will certainly give Iowa a battle and will likely pull the 7-10 upset.
While they were not in the strongest of conferences, it was clear that the committee did not watch Dayton or North Florida play all season long. It is a pure basketball tragedy that Dayton was considered one of the last four in with the season Archie Miller’s squad had in the A-10. I understand that the Ospreys were slotted into the play-in game due to the conference that they are in. However, they won at Purdue and played Northwestern, Iowa, and a couple other power conference teams close. A couple of those games got away late. The only reason that Texas and/or UCLA were not in the First Four was solely because of the name on the jersey. Both Dayton and North Florida likely combined for as many quality wins in many fewer opportunities.
The reason for so many of the 5-12 upsets are due to really strong mid-major teams being under-seeded and power conference teams like Georgetown being grossly over-seeded. While that makes for great drama and great entertainment in March, it is still not fair to a squad which has put together a stronger resume than some Power 5 teams. Due to this, the bracket this season will have as many if not more upsets than normal, with lower seeds going deeper.
One of these days, these teams will get the same respect. One of these days, the committee will look at the real resume rather than just the name on the jersey. However, fewer upsets mean less excitement, so maybe they won’t.
