I gave you my five favorite bets of the first round last week and hit on three of five against the spread. Let’s see if we can do some regressing to the mean for the Sweet 16.
Utah (+5.5) vs. Duke
Honestly, I left the Utes for dead not too long ago. Larry Krystowiak got his team to regroup, and now Utah has a shot at toppling Duke Friday night.
Even with the addition of diaper dandy Jahlil Okafor on the interior, Duke’s offense really feeds off its collection of dead-eye shooters outsides. With Jakob Poetl and the rest of the Utes’ big men patrolling the paint, it should allow Utah’s perimeter defenders to push out and get hands on the Blue Devils’ marksmen. Plus, all those bigs have plenty of fouls to use for sending Okafor to the charity stripe.
With Duke’s lapses on defense, I can see the Utes getting just enough scoring to spring the upset.
The pick: Take the points.
Gonzaga (-8.5) vs. UCLA
The Bruins got a favorable first round draw against SMU’s burnt-out squad and still needed a huge break to advance. The second round opened up nicely for them after Iowa State no-showed against UAB. If I might speak freely, this team has no business being here in the first place.
Gonzaga is something like the opposite of that. The Bulldogs playing solid ball since losing their regular season finale versus BYU and have plenty of motivation to ditch their March rep.
I’m starting to think this is the year Mark Few and Gonzaga break through.
The pick: Gonzaga, 82-67.
Oklahoma (+2) vs. Michigan State
Don’t bet against Tom Izzo in March.
It’s an immutable gambling fact. We’re talking about possibly the best NCAA Tournament coach in history.
But I just can’t shake the feeling that we’ve seen a bit of a market overcorrection in this case. This isn’t a vintage Izzo team.
From a matchup standpoint, Sparty doesn’t play a style on defense that is conducive to taking advantage of OU’s tendency to give the ball away in transition.
The big question for OU is if the Sooner post players can hold their own on the boards. Ryan Spangler and Tashawn Thomas are probably up to the task, but OU will need some solid minutes from reserves Khadeem Lattin and D.J. Bennett.
A month ago, the Sooners would likely be a short favorite in this spot. As good as Izzo is, I don’t think enough has changed since then to warrant this kind of swing.
The pick: Hack one in the faces of the gambling gods. Oklahoma outright.
Wichita State (-2) vs. Notre Dame
Defensively, the Wheat Shockers match up well with the Fighting Irish, who typically roll with just one guy taller than 6-5, forward Zach Auguste. I’d look for WSU to control the glass and let point guard Fred VanVleet control the flow of the game.
Wichita is an extraordinarily well-coached team that plays nasty D and has two go-to scorers in the backcourt. The Shockers will give Kentucky a game in the next round.
The pick: Shock ’em.
West Virginia (+13.5) vs. Kentucky
I can’t say I love this one, but I promised you five picks, didn’t I?
On a podcast earlier this week with Matt Zemek, we talked about the “secrets to beating Kentucky.” To make a long story short, neither of us puts much stock in the idea of doing this, that and the other to knock off the Wildcats.
UK has no weaknesses. You beat Big Blue by doing what you do as best you can. The Mountaineers play a unique defensive style that aims to wreak havoc all over the floor. They’re awfully good at it, too.
I doubt that’s enough to pull off a truly mammoth upset, but who knows? Bob Huggins has a pretty solid track record against John Calipari – it wouldn’t be the first time his team has shocked the ‘Cats in the big dance.
The pick: WVU keeps it just close enough.
