We’ve spent all week waiting for the Final Four to start, and the anticipated event is almost here. Yet, when Saturday’s national semifinals end, the turnaround to the national championship game will be very brief.
Most of this week has rightly been spent focusing on the national semifinals, but let’s give you at least one contextual piece on national championship games before the 2015 Final Four unfolds.
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This past week, one person mentioned to me on Twitter that the biggest reason few people take college basketball’s regular season very seriously is Tom Izzo. Indeed, when a March magician can overcome four ordinary months and get his team to max out over the course of two weekends to make the Final Four — something Izzo has done three times in the past 11 seasons — it’s little wonder that many casual sports fans tune into college hoops not one moment before March begins. When Butler made those consecutive runs to the national title game in 2010 and 2011, the Bulldogs reinforced for many the centrality of March relative to the four months which precede it.
Here’s the tension point we’re wrestling with in this piece, with the Final Four not too far away: Of all the national championship game participants since the NCAAs began to be seeded in 1979, how many of them were the product of what one would call “runs,” otherwise known as catching fire at the right time, and how many were instances in which great teams asserted their greatness? Do the Tom Izzos and Butlers stand out against the crowd, or are they representative examples of what’s normal in a national championship game matchup?
As a reference guide, use this piece we published on re-seeding the Final Four. It contains the seeds of every Final Four team since 1979.
Here we go:
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1979 National Championship Game: Indiana State vs. Michigan State.
VERDICT: 2 assertions of greatness.
Indiana State entered the title game unbeaten. Michigan State was a 2 seed with top-of-the-line talent. This is an easy call in both instances.
1980: UCLA vs. Louisville
VERDICT: 1 run, 1 assertion of greatness.
UCLA messed around during the season but then found itself in March under coach Larry Brown. Louisville, on the other hand, was a legitimately powerful team behind Darrell Griffith, “Dr. Dunkenstein.”
1981: Indiana vs. North Carolina
VERDICT: 2 assertions of greatness.
Indiana defeated a strong LSU team in the national semifinals. North Carolina took out Ralph Sampson and Virginia in Sampson’s only Final Four appearance.
1982: Georgetown vs. North Carolina
VERDICT: 2 assertions of greatness.
These were both No. 1 seeds, giants within the context of the 1981-’82 season. You can see that for many examples, explanations really won’t be necessary. We’ll add comments only for the tough calls.
1983: North Carolina State vs. Houston
VERDICT: 1 run, 1 assertion of greatness
See what we meant about explanations not being necessary?
1984: Houston vs. Georgetown
VERDICT: 2 assertions of greatness
1985: Villanova vs. Georgetown
VERDICT: 1 run, 1 assertion of greatness
1986: Louisville vs. Duke
VERDICT: 2 assertions of greatness
Louisville was a 2 seed, even though the reality of seeing a freshman — Pervis Ellison — lead a team to the national title was a bit jarring back in the mid-1980s. Today, the idea of a freshman leading a team to a title is much more commonplace. Carmelo Anthony (Syracuse, 2003) probably did more than anyone else to show that freshman MVPs on national title teams did not have to be deemed extremely unusual.
Pervis Ellison walks off the court in Reunion Arena after Louisville defeated Duke in the 1986 national championship game in Dallas.
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1987: Syracuse vs. Indiana
VERDICT: 2 assertions of greatness
1988: Kansas vs. Oklahoma
VERDICT: 1 run, 1 assertion of greatness
1989: Michigan vs. Seton Hall
VERDICT: Two split decisions.
Curveball time!
This is an extraordinarily difficult pair of case studies to sort through. On one hand, these really were runs, especially in Michigan’s case, with Steve Fisher serving as an interim replacement for Bill Frieder when the tournament began. The unusual situation brought forth the famous Bo Schembechler quote, “A Michigan man will coach Michigan.” On a less humorous note, the idea that an interim coach would lead a team to the national title game seemed improbable at the time.
Both Michigan and Seton Hall experienced “runs” for another reason: The top seeds in their respective regions were knocked out in the Sweet 16, before the Wolverines and Pirates could play them. Virginia knocked No. 1 seed Oklahoma out of the Southeast Regional before Michigan could face the Sooners. UNLV upended No. 1 seed Arizona in the West Regional semifinals before the Hall was slated to meet the Wildcats in the Elite Eight.
On the other hand…
These were assertions of greatness in that both teams were terrifically talented at multiple positions (Glen Rice, Rumeal Robinson, Terry Mills, Loy Vaught for Michigan; Ramon Ramos and John Morton for Seton Hall) and defeated powerful opponents in the Final Four national semifinals (Illinois for Michigan, Duke for Seton Hall).
Both teams sit on the fence between the two labels (runs and assertions of greatness).
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1990: Duke vs. UNLV
VERDICT: 2 assertions of greatness
1991: Kansas vs. Duke
VERDICT: 2 assertions of greatness
Duke needs no explanation. Kansas was a team which might have exceeded expectations as a No. 3 seed, but the Jayhawks carved up Arkansas and outplayed North Carolina, both No. 1 seeds, in the Elite Eight and Final Four. They were still very good.
1992: Michigan vs. Duke
VERDICT: 1 run, 1 assertion of greatness
Yes, Michigan had the Fab Five, but it’s a unit that didn’t flourish until March. This was a run. The next season was not.
1993: North Carolina vs. Michigan
VERDICT: 2 assertions of greatness
1994: Duke vs. Arkansas
VERDICT: 2 assertions of greatness
1995: Arkansas vs. UCLA
VERDICT: 2 assertions of greatness
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Syracuse’s Jason Cipolla battles Georgia’s Shandon Anderson for a loose ball in a riveting 1996 West Regional semifinal, played at McNichols Arena in Denver.
1996: Syracuse vs. Kentucky
VERDICT: 1 run, 1 assertion of greatness
John Wallace was phenomenal for Syracuse, but this was still a run more than an imposing demonstration of superiority. The Orange did not have to face a No. 1 seed in the Sweet 16 because Georgia knocked off Purdue. Syracuse very nearly lost to Georgia but escaped because of the heroics of Wallace and teammate Jason Cipolla. Syracuse was also able to play a No. 5 seed (Mississippi State) in the Final Four national semifinals. This was what a run looks like.
1997: Arizona vs. Kentucky
VERDICT: 1 run, 1 assertion of greatness
1998: Utah vs. Kentucky
VERDICT: 2 assertions of greatness
It’s worth commenting on these teams’ journeys through March. On one hand, Utah did play above its head against Arizona and North Carolina, while Kentucky overcame the odds by coming back from a huge deficit to beat top-seeded Duke in the Southeast Regional final. However, these two teams were loaded with talent. Andre Miller, Michael Doleac, and Hanno Mottola played for the Utes, while Nazr Mohammed and Jamal Magliore played for the Wildcats. These were strong teams.
1999: Duke vs. Connecticut
VERDICT: 2 assertions of greatness
2000: Florida vs. Michigan State
VERDICT: 1 run, 1 assertion of greatness
2001: Arizona vs. Duke
VERDICT: 2 assertions of greatness
2002: Indiana vs. Maryland
VERDICT: 1 run, 1 assertion of greatness
2003: Syracuse vs. Kansas
VERDICT: 2 assertions of greatness
Syracuse did get some help by receiving an assignment in Albany for the East Regional, but the Orange beat top seeds in the Elite Eight and Final Four (Oklahoma and Texas). They outlasted Kansas in a memorable final. They were a quality team. This was more than a run.
2004: Georgia Tech vs. Connecticut
VERDICT: 1 run, 1 assertion of greatness
Georgia Tech is deemed a “run” because neither of the top two seeds in the Midwest (St. Louis) Regional were able to show up. Kentucky and Stanford lost in the round of 32. Georgia Tech beat Nevada and Bill Self’s worst Kansas team to make the Final Four.
2005: North Carolina vs. Illinois
VERDICT: 2 assertions of greatness
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Corey Brewer dunks on George Mason in the 2006 Final Four at the RCA Dome in Indianapolis. Florida is known for stopping great Cinderella runs in NCAA tournament history — not only George Mason in 2006, but Norfolk State in 2012, Florida Gulf Coast in 2013, and Dayton in 2014.
2006: Florida vs. UCLA
VERDICT: 1 run, 1 assertion of greatness
Florida experienced a “run” in 2006. The following season was the assertion of greatness for the Gators. In 2006, Florida — as a No. 3 seed — did not have to play the 2 seed in the Midwest (Minneapolis) Regional, Ohio State. Georgetown picked off the Buckeyes, giving Florida a 7 seed as a foe in the Sweet 16. The Gators did take down top-seeded Villanova in the regional final, but they then drew George Mason in the Final Four. The bracket breaks Florida received in 2006 are more consistent with a run from the No. 3 seeding position.
2007: Ohio State vs. Florida
VERDICT: 2 assertions of greatness
2008: Kansas vs. Memphis
VERDICT: 2 assertions of greatness
2009: Michigan State vs. North Carolina
VERDICT: 2 assertions of greatness
2010: Butler vs. Duke
VERDICT: 1 split decision, 1 assertion of greatness
In many ways, Butler’s journey to the 2010 title game was a “run” more than an assertion of greatness. Yet, the Bulldogs clearly outplayed the top two seeds in their region, the West (Salt Lake City). It’s true that Butler played a 13 seed (Murray State) and then played a 5 seed (Michigan State) in the Final Four, but on a scale of 1 to 10 — 1 being a total run and 10 being the antithesis of a run, Butler rates a 4, maybe even a 5.
2011: Butler vs. Connecticut
VERDICT: 2 runs
Connecticut was a 3 seed, but the Huskies were far down the seeding chain when they began the Big East tournament the week before the NCAA tournament started. This was clearly a matter of Kemba Walker becoming superman for a full month, and getting enough help from Jeremy Lamb and Alex Oriakhi.
2012: Kansas vs. Kentucky
VERDICT: 2 assertions of greatness
2013: Michigan vs. Louisville
VERDICT: 1 split decision, 1 assertion of greatness
The 2013 Michigan team is a fascinating case study, poised finely between the two labels we’ve been using here. On one hand, Michigan took down Kansas in the Sweet 16 to reach the title game. On the other hand, Michigan was outplayed for most of that game and needed a parking-lot three from Trey Burke to pull off that upset. Michigan scored a win befitting a great team, but it did so in a manner befitting a team on a hot streak. The wipeout of Florida in the Elite Eight was worthy of a great team, but playing a 4 seed in the national semifinals (Syracuse) gave Michigan a bracket break consistent with a team that got the breaks at the right time. We’ll call it a split decision.
2014: Kentucky vs. Connecticut
VERDICT: 2 runs
