It always seems weird to have a preseason top 25 the day after the national title game, when most of the top college players haven’t announced their NBA intentions, and especially this year when a lot of top recruits have not announced where they’ll be attending school next year.
Still, last year’s effort ended up looking pretty good (especially if you stop after 2) so why not take another crack at it.:
1. Virginia
The Cavaliers return virtually everyone to a team that looked like a title contender all season until Justin Anderson’s injury. Virginia has it all: a stout defense, a go to scorer, veteran leadership at the point guard spot, and a very good coach. They’ll be tested in what looks to be the best conference going into next year, and they could be the rare title contender who starts five upperclassmen. Now the only obstacle seems to be avoiding Michigan State.
2. North Carolina
Brice Johnson has already announced his return, Marcus Paige probably will as well, and if he is fully healthy the Tar Heels will try to stop Virginia’s run atop the ACC. The Tar Heels could also start five upperclassmen, but it’s likely they will lean on Sophomore Justin Jackson as well as incoming freshman Luke Maye, who can add even more outside shooting to the team.
3. Kansas
Bill Self does his best work with veterans, so a team with potentially just three freshmen/sophomore contributors should be right up his alley. Still, the Jayhawks have more pieces in flux than any other team here. Cliff Alexander is gone, but Stephen Zimmerman, Chieck Diallo, Thon Maker, Brandon Ingram, Malik Newman, or any one of the exciting 2015 top recruits could commit, or the Jayhawks could get coveted graduate transfers Mike Thorne, Jr. and Damion Lee. Any combination of these events could either make the Jayhawks a true preseason #1 contender, or a better fit towards the back of the top 10. One caveat: there are rumors that Perry Ellis could be leaving, which would cause the Jayhawks’ stock to take a major hit.
4. Kentucky
I take that back. The Wildcats have more pieces in flux than any other team. Karl Towns, Willie Cauley-Stein, and the Harrison twins look to be locks to enter into the NBA Draft, but Trey Lyles, Devin Booker, and Dakari Johnson are all question marks, as is Marcus Lee, who has had transfer rumors swirling around him.
I doubt all those guys stay, but if they do, Kentucky is definitely in consideration for the #1 team. Even if not, Kentucky has Isaiah Briscoe and Skal Labissiere coming in, as well as potentially Malik Newman. Even if the 2015 class as a whole isn’t expected to be as strong as the previous two, there will be a lot of talent on the floor in Lexington.
5. Iowa State
The Cyclones flameout in the NCAA tournament doesn’t diminish what a good team they had last season, and what a good team they will have next year. Georges Niang is back and a favorite for preseason Big 12 player of the year, and they have a good interior presence in Jameel McKay, a sharpshooter in Naz Long, and one of the best point guards in the country in Monte Morris. If they get McDonalds All-American Chieck Diallo, they have a real shot at the Big 12 title. Even if they don’t (and with his lead recruiter going to St. John’s, I don’t expect them to), they still do thanks to Morris, Fred Hoiberg, and Hilton Magic. The question mark, again, will be perimeter defense, which sunk them both in the regular season and postseason.
6. Oklahoma
The Sooners lose TaShawn Thomas, but return basically everyone else, assuming Buddy Hield doesn’t go pro. If he does, the Sooners drop probably all the way to the 20s. Oklahoma will have the same depth problem it did last year, but they should still be contenders in the Big 12 as well as to make a deep run in the NCAA tournament. If they can combine the offense from two years ago with the defense from last year, the Sooners could be a definite title threat.
7. Gonzaga
I am taking a bit of a leap of faith with the Zags here. I generally don’t like teams who lose a senior point guard, but Gonzaga has enough talent around to where I think they can make it work. Kyle Wiltjer looks like a preseason All-American, Domantas Sabonis came on strong at the end of the year, and Przemek Karnowski is one of the better interior defenders around. A scant WCC schedule will allow Gonzaga to work in Pangos’s replacement and have Gonzaga tournament ready by next March.
8. Maryland
This is probably lower than anyone else will have the Terps, but it’s worth noting they outscored Big 10 competition by just .03 points per possession last season, which is not very good. The offense ranked 10th in the league, which will obviously have to improve if Maryland is going to make a run next season. Melo Trimble’s return and the addition of Diamond Stone should help, but if I am picking a 2015-16 disappointment in advance, it’s Maryland.
9. Indiana
This ranking assumes Yogi Farrell will be back, but the Hoosiers had one of the best offenses around last year. They can absolutely fill it up beyond the arc, shooting 40.6% from three. Defensively they were a mess, but the addition of Thomas Bryant should be a big help in the middle. It’s always dangerous picking a team who shot so high from three to repeat that, so, like Maryland, I would not be surprised to see Indiana disappoint next year, but they also could be very good.
10. Michigan State
No Travis Trice and no Branden Dawson will hurt. However, the Spartans return Denzel Valentine, Matt Costello, Marvin Clark, and TumTum Nairn, among others. The Spartans have two four star recruits coming in including Deyonta Davis, Michigan’s top prospect. With Trice gone, the Spartans might be lacking some outside shooting, but enter Eron Harris, who shot 42.2 percent from three two years ago as a sophomore at West Virginia.
11. Villanova
12. Duke
13. Arizona
14. Michigan
15. Wichita State
16. NC State
17. Iowa
18. Baylor
19. SMU
20. Texas A&M
21. Florida State
22. Arkansas
23. Georgia
24. UCLA
25. Miami
