North Carolina Central under head coach LaVelle Moton has absolutely owned the MEAC as of late. They have won the league’s regular season title in two of the previous three seasons, and lost just two conference games in three years. Unfortunately, they’ve been to just one NCAA tournament in that time. Last year, despite going 16-0 in the MEAC regular season and having a 100 spot edge in KenPom over any other team in the league, the Eagles lost in the conference semis to Delaware State. This is the second time in three years this has happened to the league, as Norfolk State went 16-0 in 2013 but lost to Bethune Cookman in the first round of the conference tournament.
Upsets are magnified in a league like the MEAC. A North Carolina Central championship probably would have meant a decent seed and perhaps a shot at a first round upset. However, since 6th seeded Hampton won, they were relegated to a play-in game. (Devil’s Advocate of course says that Hampton won the game and thus got the MEAC a bonus from the NCAA).
While the league gets a team in the tournament regardless, it’s not fair for a team like NC Central to go 16-0 in the regular season and see its season come crashing down due to a freak loss in the conference tournament. What can be done?
The first step is to build in some advantages for your top seed. The current MEAC bracket gives four byes, but that essentially means the number 1 seed and number 4 seed are on equal footing. Furthermore, the tournament is held not at the site of the top seed, but in Norfolk. Obviously this gives Norfolk State an advantage, but means the top seed doesn’t even get to play on its home floor for the title game.
However, I also liked the idea that CBS Sports’ Gary Parrish floated on his podcast around the NCAA tournament: turn two of the play-in games into matchups between four regular season champions of one bid leagues that didn’t win their conference tournament. Obviously the seedings will cause some issue (NC Central and Murray State shouldn’t be fighting for the same seed) but it would be a good start towards giving these teams a bit of leeway if they don’t win their conference tournament. I also think it will help retain some of these coaches: LaVelle Moton won’t want to stick around at NC Central if his season hinges on three games every March and the rest of the year is basically irrelevant, but if winning the league would at least get him into one of those play-in games, there is a chance coaches like him would stick around.
As for the 2015-16 edition of the MEAC, the league’s four best players according to the KenPom player of the year formula are gone, so there is the possibility of some new blood atop the league. NC Central, which was the country’s most experienced team last season, loses four senior starters, but with how far ahead of the pack they were last season they shouldn’t fall too far in the standings next season.
Norfolk State, which finished second in the league and returns its three best players, looks like the favorite, but NCAA tournament representative Hampton also returns a lot of talent and could use that as a springboard into 2015-16 regular season success. One thing is for sure, however: the league will likely be sending its champion back into the play-in game for another season.
Conference standing predictions:
1. Norfolk State
2. Hampton
3. Howard
4. Bethune Cookman
5. South Carolina State
6. North Carolina Central
7. Delaware State
8. Maryland Eastern Shore
9. North Carolina A&T
10. Morgan State
11. Savannah State
12. Coppin State
13. Florida A&M
