With the NBA Combine (and lottery) done with for another season, some guys have moved up (and down) draft boards. I am reluctant to change too much given that I think years of data, stats, and scouting should outweigh a weekend, but I do think that seeing how some guys are likely to be used in the NBA helped to clarify some things in the middle of the draft, and I also think that having time to watch and study guys at the top a bit more helped to move some guys around a bit.
1. Karl Towns, Fr. F, Kentucky
Towns remains at the top of my board. Not an explosive athlete, but Towns has the ability to rebound and defend at an elite level. He would fit in very well with the Timberwolves, who own the first pick in the draft and had the worst interior defense in the league last season. Of course, his inside/outside game would fit well anywhere.
KenPom top comparison: 2015 Cliff Alexander
NBA comparison: Andrew Bogut
2. Stanley Johnson, Fr. G, Arizona
The more I watch Johnson and study his numbers, the more I love him. He took a few too many mid range shots at Arizona, but that will get fixed in the NBA, and he has show the ability to shoot the three. Johnson didn’t get to the rim terribly often, but should be able to in more spread out NBA offenses, and has a nice floater game to compensate if he doesn’t. Johnson didn’t have a great measurement at the combine, but still has good size for a 2 guard in the league. He has an NBA ready body, can defend, and should be able to score in all three zones.
KenPom top comparison: 2014 Andrew Wiggins.
NBA comparison: Jimmy Butler
3. Jahlil Okafor, Fr. C, Duke
Okafor might be the Timberwolves pick at 1 given how in love Flip Saunders reportedly is with him. His defense and rebounding are still issues, and I’m not sure if he’ll be able to overpower NBA post defenders like he did in college, but his post moves and passing ability should help create spacing. It might be prospect fatigue with Okafor, but I do think the concerns about his potential rebounding and defense issues are real.
KenPom top comparison: 2013 Anthony Bennett
NBA comparison: Nikola Pekovic
4. D’Angelo Russell, Fr. G, Ohio State
Russell’s court awareness is elite, and he’s a good enough shooter to where you can’t leave him alone. He is big enough to where you could pair him with a bigger guard or a smaller guard, and while he isn’t an elite athlete, I don’t think he will get killed on the defensive end of the floor. The league is ruled by point guards right now, and Russell might be one of the better passing ones in no time.
KenPom top comparable: 2012 Trey Burke
NBA comparable: Kendall Marshall
5. Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, Guangdong
Mudiay went over to China and played professionally rather than at SMU, and I would have to say it was an overall positive for him. He got hurt and missed a large chunk of the season, but he showed his professionalism in remaining with the team to train, and even got called back in for a pair of playoff games.
Mudiay is the type of lead guard that appears to be all over the NBA today. He doesn’t excel as a passer, but he has great size, a good first step, and can get into the lane easily. He’s not a great jump shooter yet, but scouts say his form will be able to turn him into one. He also has the potential to be very good defensively.
NBA comparison: Eric Bledsoe
Kristaps Porzingis: A ton of potential, but a ton of questions
6. Kristaps Porzingis, F, Seville
Porzingis almost entered the 2014 NBA Draft, but pulled out at the last minute. It looks like the Seville forward made the right decision, as he has a chance to go in the top five next month. Porzingis played just under 22 minutes per game and averaged over 10 ppg in league play for Seville, and showed all the skills that make him one of the most intriguing prospects in the entire class. Porzingis has good shot mechanics from range, and can also put the ball on the floor effectively.
He is very slight at the moment (just 220 pounds) but at 7 feet tall he has shown the ability to block some shots. Stretch 4s are very en vogue in the NBA right now, and Porzingis could be one of the best if he hits his ceiling.
NBA comparison:Andrea Bargnani
7. Myles Turner, Fr. F, Texas
Turner measured over 6-11 with a 7-4 wingspan at the combine, very good numbers for the former Longhorn. Turner has shown the ability to score in the post and with a good jump shot, which makes me hopeful his 3-point stroke might come along in the future. His defense is probably his calling card for now, as he was one of the best shot blockers in NCAA basketball last year, but he might get bullied by NBA players early on.
If Turner gets a bit more graceful in transition, can bulk up a bit, and can extend his range, Turner has the chance to develop into a very good NBA player.
Top KenPom comparison: 2013 AJ Hammons
NBA comparison: Serge Ibaka
8. Justise Winslow, Fr. F, Duke
I am probably lower on Winslow than most people, as a number of draft writers have said he has a chance to be the best player in the draft. He has a ready made NBA body and is a strong and deceptively quick athlete which will help him defend at the next level. His combine measurements weren’t great, but he’s long enough to be able to defend NBA 3s, and could conceivably defend any backcourt player on the opposing team.
Winslow was an efficient scorer at Duke, but with Jahlil Okafor and Tyus Jones, didn’t have to do a lot of the work. That’s maybe a bit of an issue, as is the fact that he was a bit of an inconsistent shooter before getting to Duke. He shot 42 percent from three on 108 attempts, but that’s not a big enough sample to override some of the pre-Duke shooting concerns for me.
Top KenPom comparison: 2012 Bradley Beal
NBA comparison: Thabo Sefolosha
9. Willie Cauley-Stein, Jr. F, Kentucky
I have done a 180 on WCS from the start of the season. I still don’t think his upside is great, but he seems a lock to be a great defensive player for the next 5-10 years, and if he can provide any value beyond that he will be a very valuable NBA player indeed. His age is still a bit of a concern as far as those things go, and he didn’t improve all that much under John Calipari, but in the new positionless NBA a guy who can defend as well as he can and against as many positions as he can is going to be highly sought after. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pacers, Celtics, or Bucks left draft night with him in their possession one way or another.
Top KenPom comparison: 2013 Patric Young
NBA comparison: Tyson Chandler
10. Mario Hezonja, G/F, Barcelona
Hezonja seems like a better bet to be a good NBA player than fellow European star Porzingis, but his ceiling is a bit lower. He’s been on the NBA radar forever, and he’s one of the international guys over the years whom I’ve gotten to see more than a few times thanks to Barcelona’s status as one of the top teams in Europe.
Hezonja doesn’t have eye popping stats with the club, but he is probably a better fit for an NBA offense than a European one. He has good range, and is deadly in the pick and roll. Although he struggles defensively currently, the hope is that thanks to his size he can develop into a bit above average defender. For now, though, he’ll probably be a spot up shooter in the league, but with the potential to develop into so much more.
NBA comparison: Hedo Turkoglu
The potential steal of the draft
11. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, So. F, Arizona
RHJ measured 6-5 without shoes at the combine, but coupled that with a ridiculous 7-2 wingspan. He’s the best wing defender in the draft, a guy who makes you account for his whereabouts at all times on that end of the floor. He also was a good rebounder and efficient near the basket. If he had a jumpshot (just 6-29 from three last year) he’d be an easy top 10 and maybe even top 5 pick, and if a team can fix his shot he might end up the best player in this draft. Sound familiar?
Top KenPom comparison: 2014 Jerami Grant
NBA comparison: Kawhi Leonard
12. Frank Kaminsky, Sr. C, Wisconsin
Kaminsky measured just under 7 feet with a 6-11 wingspan at the combine, which was a bit disappointing, but he remains an intriguing matchup option thanks to his ability to both shoot the ball and put it on the floor. His stock probably won’t fall too much during the workout portion, but a good workout or two for a team could lead him to being an even higher pick, especially to an eastern conference team on the verge of the playoffs.
Top KenPom comparison: 2011 Jon Leuer
NBA comparison: Kelly Olynyk
13. Kelly Oubre, Fr. F, Kansas
Oubre had really good measurements at the combine, including a 7-2 wingspan and an 8-6 standing reach. There are issues to correct with him: he really can only go left, and even then mostly in a straight line to the basket, but that can be fixed with practice. Defensively he has the potential to be a wing stopper, and he is also a very good rebounder for his position.
Top KenPom comparison: 2012 Bradley Beal
NBA comparison: Matt Barnes
14. Devin Booker, Fr. F, Kentucky
I’ve come around on Booker after reading more about him. He had a 6-8 wingspan at the combine, and he is young. He might not ever be a great defender, and certainly struggled at that end for Kentucky, but he can develop into a good enough defender and if all clicks maybe be a Klay Thompson type. I’m not optimistic that will happen, but it’s possible.
Top KenPom comparison: 2011 Doron Lamb
NBA comparison: JJ Redick
15. Bobby Portis, Jr. F, Arkansas
Portis is another guy I’ve liked the more I read of him and the more I see him play. Portis’ age is a bit of a concern as well, but his versatility makes him a potentially valuable NBA player. He has good size, a good wingspan, and is a good rebounder. He’ll need to get stronger to be able to bang down low in the league, but he has some good range as a shooter which will help provide some value even if he can’t hang down low.
Top KenPom comparison: 2010 Jamine Peterson
NBA comparison: Nikola Vucevic
16. Sam Dekker, Jr F, Wisconsin
17. Trey Lyles, Fr. F, Kentucky
18. Robert Upshaw, So. F, Washington
19. Jerian Grant, Sr. G, Notre Dame
20. Cameron Payne, So. G, Murray State
21. Kevon Looney, Fr. F, UCLA
22. Christian Wood, So. F, UNLV
23. Montrezl Harrell, Jr. F, Louisville
24. Tyus Jones, Fr. G, Duke
25. Delon Wright, Sr. G, Utah
26. Cliff Alexander, Fr. F, Kansas
27. Justin Anderson, Jr F, Virginia
28. Michael Frazier, Jr F, Florida
29. George De Paula, G, Pinheiros
30. RJ Hunter, Jr G, Georgia State
