We have reached a pivotal point in the college basketball season. It is the time of the year when some underclassmen forgo a few years of eligibility and declare for the NBA Draft. Because of that many of the teams we saw in the NCAA Tournament will look vastly different next season.
It does make sense. The best teams have the best players. A slew of the best players are underclassmen. A solid chunk of those young athletes are going to opt to apply their trade for money. You know, instead of of free.
Some of what we are going to look at is speculative. Not every kid who is assumed to declare has done so. Well, at least not yet. Regardless, let’s take a look at which programs are presumably going to be hurt the most by key players leaving school early.
Kentucky
Duh. The Wildcats are losing seven players to the NBA. Seven. Not three. Not four. Not even just five. We are talking seven human beings leaving John Calipari’s basketball womb.
The counterargument to that will be about a slew of McDonald’s All-Americans joining the fold for next season. That is no doubt accurate if not even an understatement. Still, one of the biggest attributes the 2014-15 version of Kentucky had that prior versions didn’t, was having this much experience. That will no longer be the case going forward.
Kentucky’s roster is going to be so young, freshmen laden next year that it will be as smooth as a baby’s bottom. You know, if that analogy even made sense since the transition isn’t as likely to be 38-1 smooth.
Duke
As of this writing nothing is officially official. Jahlil Okafor seems like a lock to leave school early. So, too, does Justise Winslow. There is a growing thought that Tyus Jones and even Grayson Allen may declare as well. That’s a large portion of key parts that helped Duke capture a national title.
Allen is the least likely to leave. His stock, while currently debated with passion, is in a situation where it could vastly improve with another year in Cameron.
Jones is an interesting player to keep an eye on. Yet, even if those two players don’t leave it isn’t going to be pretty. Duke is losing Quinn Cook to graduation, while Okafor and Winslow are going to be gone. They will be okay in the grand scheme of things, but losing two top-10 NBA Draft type talents never helps.
Kansas
Cliff Alexander has already declared. Kelly Oubre seems not too far behind himself. While Alexander can be considered a college basketball disappointment, these are two players Bill Self will lose from a team that wasn’t that talented to begin with.
Save me your gripes, Kansas fans. Self should be applauded for his coaching last season. The Jayhawks played above their means. It doesn’t mean the roster was full of superstars, though.
Alexander’s biggest issue was not fitting in the Self system. But, again, teams don’t get better by losing multiple guys early to the NBA. They just don’t. This applies even more to a Kansas team who will have to rely heavily upon the ageless wonder (all the sarcasm), Perry Ellis, next year.
Like nearly all programs mentioned, though, Kansas does have a good recruiting class coming in. It is not as if the losses of these guys will result in them becoming bottom-feeders in the Big 12.
Arkansas
What is Arkansas without Bobby Portis? Answer that and you will know why they land on this list.
Georgia State
Unlike many of the programs here, Georgia State is a team that can ill-afford losing its best player. I mean, it is not as if they land tippy-top recruits on the regular.
With R.J. Hunter deciding he had enough of his dad (kidding), next year’s Georgia State team is going to be a shell of itself. Not even remotely as good as this one.
That isn’t really saying much. Georgia State losing Hunter is like your men’s league team losing the only guy in town who can jump over a phone book. The predicted drop in success is as obvious as it is evident.
Eastern Washington
You can essentially take what is written about Arkansas and parts of Georgia State, then apply it to Eastern Washington. Tyler Harvey is leaving early and, well, the Eagles are really going to hurt with him gone.
It is really just that simple. To be fair, however, they do have some good players coming back. The drop in team success should not be as drastic as it is for Georgia State. Right, Venky Jois?
Arizona (Maybe)
The Wildcats may or may not lose key players early. Even if just one — preferably not Stanley Johnson — decides to come back, then it is all gravy for Zona.
There is enough talent on this roster, with a constant influx of more joining the fold, that losing one guy a year early to the NBA Draft would not really hamper the success of this program. Losing Johnson and Brandon Ashley in one fell swoop, though, would be less than ideal.
Honorable Mention
There are a slew of other teams who fall into that “lose one guy” and it hurts a bunch category. Think Ohio State and D’Angelo Russell. Instead of going through each of them just know that it hurts each program. Again, none of it is that complicated.
Losing players early to the NBA Draft hurts programs. That is unless they are traditional powers that bring in great class after great class. They are mostly in recruit and reload mode at all times. Other less perennial powers are obviously more hurt by losing a guy or two early.
Outside the exceptions listed in this article: Just apply the above statements when guys declare for the draft from your favorite programs.
