The Final Four features three of the top four Ken Pom teams for the first time since 2012. In the human polls, Kentucky was No. 1 the entire season, Duke never left the top five, and Wisconsin slipped as low as 7th. Michigan State is 15th in Ken Pom. The Spartans were ranked for five weeks this season as well. It’s not as though Michigan State is a slouch. On paper, this is one of the more loaded Final Fours in recent memory. There are storylines galore. Let’s take a look at 10 things to look for in the 2015 Final Four.
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Offensive Rebounding
Obviously, offensive rebounding is important in every game. It is one of the four factors, after all. Both Kentucky and Duke, the heavily favored squads on Saturday, are both a little soft on the defensive glass. Neither of their Big Ten opponents are great offensive rebounding teams, however. Michigan State is above average but nothing special.
Wisconsin is almost at the national average. Kentucky has had struggles keeping teams off the glass during the tournament. It didn’t matter much against Cincinnati, but it certainly mattered a whole lot when a weak offensive rebounding team in Notre Dame pulled down over 40 percent of available offensive boards.
To flip things around, the teams in blue feast on offensive rebounds. Kentucky is 6th in offensive rebound percentage, while Duke is 23rd. Wisconsin is incredibly stout at keeping teams off the offensive glass. The Badgers give up less than 24 percent on the boards, the fourth-lowest mark. Michigan State comes in at a solid 33rd.
The difference makers on the glass are Jahlil Okafor and Amile Jefferson for Duke. Okafor is one of the best offensive rebounders in the entire nation, hauling in nearly 15% of Duke’s misses. Jefferson is in the top 30 of national rebound percentage leaders at nearly 14%. Michigan State has a couple of solid defensive rebounders in Matt Costello and Denzel Valentine, but the star is Branden Dawson, who pulls nearly 24% on the defensive glass.
Kentucky has a couple of great offensive rebounders in Trey Lyles, Willie Cauley-Stein, and especially Karl-Anthony Towns, who is right around Jefferson’s 14% on the glass. Kentucky bench players Dakari Johnson and Marcus Lee hit the glass extremely hard. Wisconsin is powered by Frank Kaminsky. Frank the Tank dominates the defensive glass.
Wisconsin’s Three-Point Shooting
The biggest story of Wisconsin’s win over Arizona was the fantastic three-point shooting. The Badgers were roughly 100 of 100 during the second half (hashtag #UnofficialStatistics) to put the Wildcats to rest. The Wildcats from Kentucky offer a different challenge. They don’t give up a ton of three-point looks. If they do, those looks are contested. Wisconsin’s shooters are great. Sam Dekker played like a lottery pick in the West Regional against Arizona and North Carolina. While Wisconsin isn’t solely dependent on threes in its offense, the three-point shot could be what takes down Kentucky.
Duke’s Three-Point Defense
During the NCAA tournament, Duke’s first four opponents have posted the following three-point figures and percentages: 6-19, 31.6% / 2-13, 15.4% / 4-16, 25% / 2-10, 20%. That’s a pretty low set of numbers. Some can be attributed to Houston’s football stadium and the poor shooting there all weekend. A larger part could be attributed to the Duke defense. Opponents have hit just 31.2% from deep against the Blue Devils.
Travis Trice
Michigan State has thrived on the three-point shot. The Spartans have hit nine in each of their last two games and splashed down 6 of 12 against Virginia. Travis Trice has been the huge reason behind that. He’s hit 11 of 29 from distance over the last three games. A poor shooting game against Louisville hampered that a bit. He was the only Spartan who seemed to miss from deep against the Cardinals, though. His teammates picked him up.
The senior is averaging 19.7 points during the tournament. He’s missed all of two free throws, none in the two games in Syracuse. Trice has dished out 16 assists to 8 turnovers, a solid 2-1 ratio. If Michigan State is going to topple Duke, it needs a big day from Trice.
Who guards Jahlil Okafor?
The focal point of the Michigan State defensive gameplan is what it does to slow down Okafor. Sparty couldn’t slow down Montrezl Harrell of Louisville, who missed a lot of shots he normally makes in the second half of that Elite Eight contest. The size issue is a huge problem for Michigan State, but so is Okafor’s talent level. They don’t have anyone who can match up with the potential first pick. I suspect we’ll see a lot of double-teams and some junk defenses to throw Duke off. Of course, that opens up the court for the rest of the Blue Devils and their sharpshooters.
Can Wisconsin Get Enough Stops?
Wisconsin’s defense has been pretty awful during the tournament. Three of the six worst games in terms of points per possession have occurred during the tournament. The two best teams Wisconsin has played this season are Duke and Arizona. They handled the Badger defense to a ridiculous degree. I don’t think it’s too much to ask if the Badger defense can slow down what is one of the best offenses in the nation.
Can Kentucky Get to the Foul Line?
One of the strengths of the Kentucky offense is its relentless ability to get to the free throw line. The Wildcats have one of the best free throw rates in the nation and shoot free throws very well. We saw Wisconsin put Arizona at the line 30 times in what was a brutally called game. Normally the Badgers rarely foul. There is going to be some give and take here. If the Cats can do what Arizona did and get Hayes and Kaminsky (to a certain extent) in foul trouble, that makes the interior defense a little bit softer and allows Towns (especially) room to dominate.
Justise Winslow’s Domination
Justise Winslow was Duke’s best player in Houston. Utah and Gonzaga weren’t defensive slouches, but neither had an answer for him. Winslow can hit from deep if you give him space. Off the dribble he can finish and draw fouls. He’s flashed the ability to rebound well at the offensive end of the floor. He can be a solid passer.
The other thing to note is that Winslow has a great knack for getting steals and blocks. He’s a two-way player who is an accent to a superstar. There have been some comparisons to Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, but his closest comp on Ken Pom is Bradley Beal. To be fair, Beal did not shoot the long ball well in college. Winslow is the separator between Duke being good and Duke being great.
Kentucky’s Guard Play
We know that Kentucky is going to get production from its big men. Karl-Anthony Towns will be solid. Cauley-Stein will contribute. Trey Lyles will be my favorite Wildcat on the floor because of all the various things he does well. The question is what will Kentucky get from its guards?
Devin Booker has appeared to break out of his shooting slump at the perfect time. Tyler Ulis has been great in the tournament, but there was the major issue of 5 turnovers in the game against Notre Dame. Aaron Harrison has been a bit up and down, although he still nailed the big shot against Notre Dame… because of course he did. Andrew Harrison has primarily lived at the free throw line to get his points. In fact, Harrison is 21-25 at the free throw line and 8-22 from the floor in the tournament.
Michigan State At the Foul Line
If their game against Duke is close, one has to wonder if the Spartans can ice it out or stay in the game at the stripe. They do not shoot free throws well. As a team, they are hitting 63.2%. That’s one of the 13 worst marks in the country. Trice, Denzel Valentine and Bryn Forbes are the only above-average foul shooters. Dawson is under 50%, and so is Gavin Schilling. One wonders if Duke goes into Hack-a-Sparty mode if it’s close. A counterpoint, though: Michigan State hit 15 of 20 foul shots against Louisville. Can the Spartans do that again on Saturday?
