2015 NCAA Tournament Preview: East Region

The East region of the NCAA tournament is home to the most unlikely number 1 seed, the Villanova Wildcats. Villanova wasn’t thought of to be one of the elite teams at the beginning of the year. Nova wasn’t even in the preseason top 10. Once the season kicked off though, the Wildcats asserted dominance over the Big East. The Wildcats won the regular season and the conference tournament by impressive margins. Proving that last season’s 29-5 record wasn’t a fluke, Villanova finished this season 32-2.

Villanova is a 1 seed in a bracket with a team many people thought deserved to be a 1 seed, the ACC regular season champion Virginia Cavaliers. The rise of both programs the last two years seems like an Elite 8 game would be kismet. Virginia produces the flat out best defense in the country. They also feature a style that is not exactly crowd pleasing. When your team is playing against them, there is nothing more annoying than some of the tactics Virginia uses to shave seconds off the game. The worst is the waiting forever to pick up the ball to inbound. It’s something that once you notice it, it’ll drive you crazy. Style or not, you don’t get to 29-3 without being great.

The rest of the region is chalk full of teams that would love, and are getting, an opportunity to prove themselves. Oklahoma has a great defense of their own, but were largely overlooked in Big 12 play with most of the eyes focusing on Kansas and Iowa State. Louisville struggled with it’s consistency on offense once Chris Jones was kicked off the team. Even with Jones, the Cardinals sputtered to a 5-5 finish. Northern Iowa has to feel underseed down on the 5 line. Some have talked them up as a team that could crash the Final Four.

Here are how the teams stack up in the key efficiency stats. The numbers we will be using are efficiency, effective field goal percentage (weighs 3s), turnover percentage and offensive rebound percentage. Normally the team that controls these numbers wins the game. It’s almost like scoring efficiently, shooting well, winning the boards and the turnover battle are good things.

How They Got Here

1) Villanova Wildcats – Big East Tournament champions

2) Virginia Cavaliers – At large

3) Oklahoma Sooners – At large

4) Louisville Cardinals – At large

5) Northern Iowa Panthers – Missouri Valley Tournament champions

6) Providence Friars – At large

7) Michigan State Spartans – At large

8) North Carolina State Wolfpack – At large

9) LSU Tigers – At large

10) Georgia Bulldogs – At large

11) Dayton Flyers – At large

11) Boise State Broncos – At large

12) Wyoming Cowboys – Mountain West Tournament champions

13) UC Irvine Anteaters – Big West Tournament champions

14) Albany Great Danes – America East Tournament champions

15) Belmont Bruins – Ohio Valley Tournament champions

16) Lafayette Leopards – Patriot League Tournament champions

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Offensive Efficiency

120.8 – Villanova 4
114.1 – Michigan St 14
113.8 – Northern Iowa 15
112.2 – Virginia 27
111.5 – NC State 30
110.7 – Providence 38
110.3 – Lafayette 40
109.4 – Boise St 48
109.3 – Oklahoma 50
107.9 – Belmont 64
107.2 – Dayton 73
107 – Georgia 74
106.8 – LSU 75
105.9 – Louisville 95
104.1 – Albany – 119
103.9 – UC Irvine
101.8 – Wyoming 176

eFG%

56.5 – Belmont 6
56.3 – Lafayette 7
56.2 – Northern Iowa 8
55.3 – Villanova 15
53.8 – Michigan St 27
53.5 – Boise St 32
52.8 – Dayton 45
52.1 – Wyoming 59
51.2 – Virginia 80
50.7 – UC Irvine 97
50.5 – LSU 101
50.1 – Albany 114
49.6 – NC State 144
49.4 – Oklahoma 150
48.9 – Georgia 184
48.6 – Providence 197
47.8 – Louisville 228

Turnover %

16.1 – Boise St 23
16.1 – Virginia 25
16.2 – NC State 27
16.6 – Villanova 41
16.9 – Lafayette 46
17.7 – Oklahoma 78
17.8 – Louisville 82
17.8 – Dayton 84
17.9 – Michigan St 91
17.9 – Providence 93
18 – Northern Iowa 97
18 – UC Irvine 99
18.7 – Wyoming 147
19 – Albany 168
19.3 – Georgia 184
20.3 – Belmont 259
20.5 – LSU 274

Offensive Rebound %

35.3 – Providence 39
35.1 – Louisville 46
34.6 – Michigan St 63
34.1 – NC State 75
34 – LSU 79
34 – Virginia 81
32.7 – Villanova 111
32.5 – Albany 116
32.3 – Georgia 118
30.9 – Oklahoma 172
29.8 – UC Irvine 218
29.2 – Belmont 240
27.6 – Lafayette 282
27.6 – Boise St 288
26.9 – Northern Iowa 302
24.2 – Dayton 330
22.1 – Wyoming 344

Defensive Efficiency

85.4 – Virginia 1
88.9 – Oklahoma 5
89.4 – Louisville 6
92.2 – Villanova 13
93.2 – Northern Iowa 16
93.9 – Georgia 28
94.7 – LSU 37
94.7 – Dayton 38
95.5 – Providence 48
96.1 – Michigan St 53
96.5 – Boise St 64
97 – Wyoming 67
98.2 – NC State 89
98.3 – UC Irvine 92
101.6 – Albany 151
106.5 – Belmont 259
113.1 – Lafayette 337

eFG%

41.7 – Virginia 3
43.4 – Louisville 8
43.7 – Oklahoma 11
44.2 – Georgia 14
44.6 – LSU 21
44.7 – UC Irvine 23
45.1 – Northern Iowa 32
45.5 – NC State 44
45.5 – Villanova 45
45.7 – Michigan St 48
46.7 – Wyoming 79
47.3 – Dayton 99
47.4 – Boise St 102
48.1 – Providence 132
49.6 – Albany 195
51.3 – Belmont 273
52.9 – Lafayette 311

Turnover %

27.8 – Louisville 29
21.7 – Villanova 31
21.1 – Dayton 60
20.3 – Albany 101
20.2 – Oklahoma 107
19.7 – Providence 137
19.4 – Boise St 149
19.3 – Northern Iowa 154
19.2 – LSU 159
18.7 – Belmont 197
18.1 – Virginia 242
18.1 – Wyoming 243
17.3 – UC Irvine 278
17 – Michigan St 293
16.9 – Lafayette 296
16.8 – Georgia 302
15.4 – NC State 341

Offensive Rebound %

24.3 – Virginia 5
25.5 – Albany 11
25.9 – Boise St 16
26 – Michigan St 17
26.9 – Wyoming 29
26.9 – Northern Iowa 30
28 -Dayton 47
28.9 – Georgia 75
29.5 – Belmont 101
29.5 – Providence 103
30.4 – NC State 132
30.7 – UC Irvine 148
30.9 – Louisville 163
31.1 – Villanova 171
31.5 – Oklahoma 194
33 – LSU 266
34.4 – Lafayette 316

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The Favorite – Villanova Wildcats

This region is almost a toss up between Villanova and Virginia, but I’m rolling with the Wildcats. Their path is aided by the fact that they are a 1 seed. That’s an advantce that one can’t discount. It’s going to be interesting to see the Wildcats go against teams with greater talent in the round of 32, like an LSU or NC State. Villanova is the better team on both ends, but it’s been a while since they have truly been challenged like that. It’s kind of easy, at least compared to the other 1 seeds, to talk yourself into an early exit for Villanova.

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The Dark Horse – Northern Iowa Panthers

Northern Iowa is a team with a start post player that can do pretty much anything in Seth Tuttle. The team has a ton of shooters and they play some very tough defense. The Panthers have a favorable matchup with Wyoming in round one and what looks like a favorable game against Louisville in round two. With how balanced Northern Iowa is on both side of the floord, they are the type of team that could give Villanova fits. Any team that shoots the three point shot as well as Northern Iowa always has a punchers shot at making a deep run.

The Upset Everyone is Picking – None really?

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This is the most chalk heavy region on both ESPN and Yahoo brackets. Even the 8-9 game of NC State against LSU swings towards the Wolfpack. There really isn’t a consenous upset pick to get on board with in the East.

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If no upsets stand out, where are the potential landmines for the top 4 seeds?

As mentioned earlier, Villanova is going to have some trouble being tested by what appear to be superior talent in either NC State or LSU in the round of 32.

Virginia has Belmont in the Cavaliers opening game. While it’s possible Belmont could go nuts from three in a low possession game, Virginia’s toughest early test looks like the team that bounced them last year, Michigan State. The Spartans are not as good as they were last season on the defensive end but given Virginia’s problems sustaining offense as of late, this one could be tricky. Michigan State was a 7 seed no one really wanted to play.

A Sweet 16 game with a team like Oklahoma that can defend very well would be a challenge. Speaking of the Sooners, their big landmine looks to be in the round of 32 as well in a potential game with Providence. The Friars have two great players that can really take over games in Kris Dunn and LaDontae Henton.

Louisville would face a huge threat in Northern Iowa in the round of 32 if both teams advanced. That game would really test the Louisville offense, which has not been great for a while now. No one doubts the intensity of the Cardinal defense, what is up for debate is if the team has enough offense to advance. Maybe the relief of not being in Kentucky’s region will help the Cardinals make a run.

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Is there a comically tall player in this region?

Madadou Ndiaye of UC Irvine stands 7 feet, 6 inches tall. Ndiaye’s stats on the whole don’t impress too much. He’ll get very easy buckets because he’s incredibly tall. Ndiaye hasn’t been a huge shot blocker, especially compared to his contributions last season, but he’s going to alter shots. How long he can stay on the court is a big question for Irvine. Ndiaye only played in 13 games this season, although he played at least 20 minutes in each of the last five games and 28 minutes in the overtime win over UC Santa Barbara.

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Is there an unfair homecourt advantage?

As you definitely know, Dayton plays Boise State Wednesday night in Dayton. The debate on if Dayton should be the last team in aside, this is a straight road game for Boise State. If the Flyers are able to advance, they would then play Providence in Columbus. Dayton fans barely have to travel to see the Flyers in the Big Dance.

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What team do I trust the least with the game in the balance?

LSU. Always LSU. Johnny Jones becoming the coach of my favorite team would be a nightmare.

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Who are the players to watch in the East region?

Here are the statistical leaders in the key stats from this top heavy region.

Points

19.7 – LaDontae Henton, Providence
19.3 – Derrick Marks, Boise St
18.1 – Craig Bradshaw, Belmont
17.5 – Buddy Hield, Oklahoma
17.2 – Dan Trist, Lafayette
17.1 – Terry Rozier, Louisville
16.9 – Jarrell Martin, LSU
16.5 – Jordan Sibert, Dayton
16.1 – Larry Nance Jr, Wyoming
15.8 – Trevor Lacey, NC State
15.7 – Montrezl Harrell, Louisville
15.7 – Kris Dunn, Providence
15.5 – Jordan Mickey, LSU
15.3 – Seth Tuttle, Northern Iowa
14.8 – Travis Trice, Michigan St
14.5 – Denzel Valentine, Michigan St
14.3 – Evan Bradds, Belmont
14 – Darrun Hilliard, Villanova
14 – Sam Rowley, Albany
13.9 – Malcolm Brogdon, Virginia
13.6 – Keith Hornsby, LSU
13.6 – Peter Hooley, Albany
13.2 – Ralston Turner, NC State
13.1 – Josh Adams, Wyoming
13.1 – Seth Hinrichs, Lafayette

Field Goals Made

223 – LaDontae Henton, Providence
222 – Dan Trist, Lafayette
221 – Derrick Marks, Boise St
196 – Jarrell Martin, LSU
190 – Montrezl Harrell, Louisville
189 – Terry Rozier, Louisville
188 – Buddy Hield, Oklahoma
187 – Jordan Mickey, LSU
187 – Craig Bradshaw, Belmont
181 – Kris Dunn, Providence
179 – Larry Nance, Wyoming
178 – Will Davis, UC Irvine
175 – Seth Tuttle, Northern Iowa
174 – Trevor Lacey, NC State
172 – Denzel Valentine, Michigan St

Free Throws Made

145 – LaDontae Henton, Providence
141 – Charles Mann, Georgia
138 – Seth Tuttle, Northern Iowa
136 – Jarrell Martin, LSU
136 – Jordan Sibert, Dayton
133 – JayVaughn Pinkston, Villanova
125 – Terry Rozier, Louisville
119 – Sam Rowley, Albany
116 – Jordan Woodard, Oklahoma
116 – Kris Dunn, Providence
116 – Kendall Pollard, Dayton
112 – Larry Nance, Wyoming
110 – Josh Adams, Wyoming
108 – Malcolm Brogdon, Virginia
108 – Dan Trist, Lafayette
108 – Nick Linder, Lafayette

Free Throw % – min 40 attempts

93.9 – Riley Grabau, Wyoming
87.1 – Malcolm Brogdon, Virginia
85 – Nick Linder, Lafayette
84.5 – Seth Hinrichs, Lafayette
84.1 – Jordan Woodard, Oklahoma
83 – Amanze Egekeze, Belmont
82.9 – Ralston Turner, NC State
82.7 – JJ Frazier, Georgia
82.2 – Buddy Hield, Oklahoma
81.9 – Denzel Valentine, Michigan St
81.5 – Sam Rowley, Albany
81.4 – Evan Singletary, Albany
81.3 – Ryan Arcidiacono, Villanova
80.4 – Desmond Lee, NC State
79.4 – Justin Anderson, Virginia
79.4 – Larry Nance, Wyoming

3 Pointers Made

89 – Denzel Valentine, Michigan St
88 – Ralston Turner, NC State
86 – Buddy Hield, Oklahoma
83 – Taylor Barnette, Belmont
77 – Craig Bradshaw, Belmont
76 – Nick Duncan, Boise St
75 – Travis Trice, Michigan St
74 – Jordan Sibert, Dayton
73 – Darrun Hilliard, Villanova
72 – Trevor Lacey, NC State
72 – Joey Ptasinski, Lafayette
70 – Keith Hornsby, LSU
66 – Derrick Marks, Boise St
65 – Travis Souza, UC Irvine
61 – Bryn Forbes, Michigan St

3 Point % – min 40 attempts

48.4 – Jaron Martin, UC Irvine
46.9 – Justin Anderson, Virginia
46.8 – Josh Hart, Villanova
46.7 – Zach Rufer, Lafayette
46.4 – Travis Souza, UC Irvine
45.6 – Joey Ptasinski, Lafayette
45.4 – Isaiah Cousins, Oklahoma
45.2 – Deon Mitchell, Northern Iowa
45 – Phil Booth, Villanova
44 – Derrick Marks, Boise St
43.8 – Darrell Davis, Dayton
42.9 – Seth Tuttle, Northern Iowa
42.4 – Bryn Forbes, Michigan St
42 – James Webb III, Boise St
41.8 – Denzel Valentine, Michigan St

Rebounds

295 – Montrezl Harrell, Louisville
294 – Jarrell Martin, LSU
294 – Jordan Mickey, LSU
285 – Daniel Ochefu, Villanova
274 – Branden Dawson, Michigan St
271 -Dyshawn Pierre, Dayton
256 – Ryan Spangler, Oklahoma
245 – Sam Rowley, Albany
244 – James Webb III, Boise St
231 – Will Davis, UC Irvine
230 – Evan Bradds, Belmont
224 – Seth Tuttle, Northern Iowa
217 – Larry Nance, Wyoming
216 – Marcus Thornton, Georgia
213 – Dan Trist, Lafayette

Offensive Rebounds

103 – Montrezl Harrell, Louisville
96 – Anthony Gill, Virginia
96 – Jarrell Martin, LSU
96 – Jordan Mickey, LSU
90 – Daniel Ochefu, Villanova
90 – Branden Dawson, Michigan St
79 – Will Davis, UC Irvine
79 – Sam Rowley, Albany
76 – Ryan Spangler, Oklahoma
75 – Ben Bentil, Providence
74 – Dyshawn Pierre, Dayton
71 – Matt Costello, Michigan St
71 – Dan Trist, Lafayette
69 – Mangok Mathiang, Louisville
69 – Marvin Singleton, Northern Iowa

Assists

243 – Kris Dunn, Providence
194 – Reece Chamberlain, Belmont
176 – Travis Trice, Michigan St
461 – Nick Linder, Lafayette
149 – Denzel Valentine, Michigan St
143 – London Perrantes, Virginia
126 – Jordan Woodard, Oklahoma
126 – Tim Quarterman, LSU
125 – Scoochie Smith, Dayton
122 – Cat Barber, NC State
120 – Josh Adams, Wyoming
119 – Ryan Arcidiacono, Villanova
118 – Dylan Ennis, Villanova
118 – Josh Gray, LSU
118 – Charles Mann, Georgia

Turnovers

131 – Kris Dunn, Providence
104 – Charles Mann, Georgia
98 – Jordan Mickey, LSU
92 – Seth Tuttle, Northern Iowa
91 – Jarrell Martin, LSU
91 – Craig Bradshaw, Belmont
87 – Josh Adams, Wyoming
85 – Denzel Valentine, Michigan St
84 – Sam Rowley, Albany
81 – Reece Chamberlain, Belmont
80 – Josh Gray, LSU
80 – Evan Bradds, Belmont
78 – Tim Quarterman, LSU
76 – Kendall Pollard, Dayton
74 – Dan Trist, Lafayette

Steals

89 – Kris Dunn, Providence
65 – Terry Rozier, Louisville
59 – Darrun Hilliard, Villanova
59 – Jordan Sibert, Dayton
56 – Derrick Marks, Boise St
52 – Reece Chamberlain, Belmont
49 – Jordan Woodard, Oklahoma
48 – Scoochie Smith, Dayton
48 – Craig Bradshaw, Belmont
47 – Josh Adams, Wyoming
45 – Buddy Hield, Oklahoma
45 – LaDontae Henton, Providence
45 – Tim Quarterman, LSU
45 – Ray Sanders, Albany
44 – Kyle Davis, Dayton

Blocks

106 – Jordan Mickey, LSU
87 – BeeJay Anya, NC State
79 – Carson Desrosiers, Providence
46 – Daniel Ocefu, Villanova
45 – TaShawn Thomas, Oklahoma
45 – Branden Dawson, Michigan St
44 – Matt Costello, Michigan St
44 – Yante Maten, Georgia
42 – Chinanu Onuaku, Louisville
39 – Mangok Mathiang, Louisville
38 – Montrezl Harrell, Louisville
37 – Ryan Spangler, Oklahoma
37 – Kyle Washington, NC State
35 – Marcus Thornton, Georgia
35 – Larry Nance, Wyoming

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