2015 NCAA Tournament Preview: Midwest Region

Posted by on Mar 17, 2015 18:06

Action in the Midwest Region begins tonight with the 16 seed play-in game between Hampton and Manhattan. The winner of that game has the unenviable task of being Kentucky’s only guaranteed victim of March. If Kentucky was the 1 seed that was upset by the 16 seed, it would be the greatest upset in the history of college basketball. We would have to retire the word ‘upset’ after such an occassion.

The Wildcats’ path doesn’t seem riddled with teams that are clearly threatening. There are some good teams of course, just none that seem to match up with the powerhouse.

There are great stories in this region. You have five Indiana teams that could end up meeting and give us a slew of stories in the process. One of the trendy picks is Wichita State battling Kansas in the round of 32. That’s a game Kansas does not care about playing; Wichita State, on the other hand, very much does. You have West Virginia and Kentucky potentially meeting in the Sweet 16 with the historical footnote of West Virginia knocking the 2010 Kentucky team out of the tournament. You have a potential Kansas-Kentucky rematch. You have a potential Cincinnati-versus-Bob Huggins game waiting in the Sweet 16. (If the world blows up.)

You also have the Texas Longhorns as the 11 seed. A lot has been said about whether or not Texas should have made the tournament. Now that the Horns are in a single-elimination situation, they are going to be picked over Butler on talent alone by some. Texas is currently favored in Vegas, too. This is one of the weird things about the tournament: People have been railing against Texas for weeks, saying that it had its chances against the RPI top 50 and blew almost all of them. Yet, the Horns are playing another RPI top 50 team in Butler, and many are picking them to win.

Before we get to know the teams, let’s get to know the statistical leaders. Let’s use the common stats: points, field goals made, free throws made, free throw percentage, 3-pointers made, 3-point percentage, rebounds, offensive rebounds, assists, steals and blocks. There will be a top 25 for scorers and the rest will be top 15.

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Points

    1. 17.7 – Justin Moss, Buffalo
    2. 16.8 – Jerian Grant, Notre Dame
    3. 16.7 – Alec Peters, Valparaiso
    4. 16.6 – Kellen Dunham, Butler
    5. 16.5 – Emmy Andujar, Manhattan
    6. 16.3 – Melo Trimble, Maryland
    7. 16.1 – Yogi Ferrell, Indiana
    8. 15.7 – James Blackmon Jr, Indiana
    9. 15.4 – Dez Wells, Maryland
    10. 15.4 – Shannon Evans, Buffalo
    11. 15 – Ron Baker, Wichita State
    12. 14.5 – Juwan Staten, West Virginia
    13. 14.5 – Scott Eatherton, Northeastern
    14. 13.8 – Perry Ellis, Kansas
    15. 13.5 – Ashton Pankey, Manhattan
    16. 13.3 – David Walker, Northeastern
    17. 13.3 – Remi Barry, New Mexico State
    18. 13.1 – Troy Williams, Indiana
    19. 13.1 – Shane Richard, Manhattan
    20. 13 – Isaiah Taylor, Texas
    21. 13 – Pascal Siakam, New Mexico State
    22. 13 – Dwight Meikle, Hampton
    23. 12.8 – Pat Connaughton, Notre Dame
    24. 12.8 – Jake Layman, Maryland

25.  12.7 – Fred Van Vleet, Wichita State

Field Goals

  1. 200 – Justin Moss, Buffalo
  2. 190 – Scott Eatherton, Northeastern
  3. 189 – Alec Peters, Valparaiso
  4. 187 – Emmy Andujar, Manhattan
  5. 185 – Jerian Grant, Notre Dame
  6. 171 – Yogi Ferrell, Indiana
  7. 173 – James Blackmon Jr, Indiana
  8. 164 – Kellen Dunham, Butler
  9. 164 – Pascal Siakam, New Mexico State
  10. 162 – Zach Auguste, Notre Dame
  11. 161 – Ron Baker, Wichita State
  12. 159 – Troy Williams, Indiana
  13. 158 – Perry Ellis, Kansas
  14. 158 – Shannon Evans, Buffalo
  15. 156 – Roosevelt Jones, Butler

Free Throws Made

  1. 199 – Melo Trimble, Maryland
  2. 166 – Justin Moss, Buffalo
  3. 154 – Jerian Grant, Notre Dame
  4. 148 – Ashton Pankey, Manhattan
  5. 134 – Emmy Andujar, Mahattan
  6. 132 – Kellen Dunham, Butler
  7. 121 – Devin Williams, West Virginia
  8. 115 – David Walker, Northeastern
  9. 113 – Shannon Evans, Buffalo
  10. 111 – Juwan Staten, West Virginia
  11. 110 – Perry Ellis, Kansas
  12. 110 – Fred Van Vleet, Wichita State
  13. 107 – Scott Eatherton, Northeastern
  14. 105 – Yogi Ferrell, Indiana
  15. 104 – Frank Marson III, Kansas

Free Throw % – minimum 40 attempts 

    1. 91.7 – Brannen Greene, Kansas
    2. 86.5 – Melo Trimble, Maryland
    3. 86.5 – David Walker, Northeastern
    4. 85.7 – Kellen Dunham, Butler
    5. 85.4 – Yogi Ferrell, Indiana
    6. 84.9 – Steve Vasturia, Notre Dame
    7. 84.9 – Deron Powers, Hampton
    8. 84.1 – Alec Peters, Valparaiso
    9. 84 – Myles Turner, Texas
    10. 84 – Brian Darden, Hampton
    11. 83.8 – Isaiah Taylor, Texas
    12. 82.8 – Devin Booker, Kentucky
    13. 82.5 – Alex Barlow, Butler
    14. 81.9 – Shane Richards, Manhattan
    15. 81.4 – Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky

T-15.  81.4 – James Blackmon Jr, Indiana

3-Pointers Made

    1. 88 – Pat Connaughton, Notre Dame
    2. 88 – Shane Richards, Manhattan
    3. 79 – Alec Peters, Valparaiso
    4. 78 – Yogi Ferrell, Indiana
    5. 76 – Ron Baker, Wichita State
    6. 75 – James Blackmon Jr, Indiana
    7. 73 – Kellen Dunham, Butler
    8. 72 – Kendall Stephens, Purdue
    9. 67 – David Walker, Northeastern
    10. 66 – Brian Darden, Hampton
    11. 63 – Shannon Evans, Buffalo
    12. 62 – Nick Zeisloft, Indiana
    13. 61 – Jarryn Skeete, Buffalo
    14. 58 – Ian Baker, New Mexico State
    15. 56 – Melo Trimble, Maryland

T-15. 56 – Alex Barlow, Butler

3-Point % – minimum 40 attempts

    1. 55.1 – Caleb Donnelly, Northeastern
    2. 50 – Dez Wells, Maryland
    3. 47.3 – Demarcus Holland, Texas
    4. 47.2 – Ian Baker, New Mexico State
    5. 46.2 – Alec Peters, Valparaiso
    6. 45.6 – Collin Hartman, Indiana
    7. 45.3 – Nick Zeisloft, Indiana
    8. 44.6 – Remi Barry, New Mexico State
    9. 43.6 – Pat Connaughton, Notre Dame
    10. 43.1 – Troy Caupain, Cincinnati
    11. 42.9 – Devin Booker, Kentucky
    12. 42.4 – VJ Beachem, Notre Dame
    13. 41.9 – RaSwan Stores, Manhattan
    14. 41.8 – Tyler Ulis, Kentucky

15.   41.5 – Kellen Dunham, Butler

Rebounds

  1. 313 – Kameron Woods, Butler
  2. 295 – Justin Moss, Buffalo
  3. 254 – Pascal Siakam, New Mexico State
  4. 253 – Pat Connaughton, Notre Dame
  5. 253 – Devin Wiliams, West Virginia
  6. 235 – Emmy Andujar, Manhattan
  7. 232 – Octavius Ellis, Cincinnati
  8. 227 – Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky
  9. 226 – Troy Williams, Indiana
  10. 225 – Gary Clark, Cincinnati
  11. 224 – Perry Ellis, Kansas
  12. 223 – Alec Peters, Buffalo
  13. 219 – Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky
  14. 217 – Dwight Meikle, Hampton
  15. 216 – AJ Hammons, Purdue
  16. 216 – Scott Eatherton, Northeastern

Offensive Rebounds

    1. 109 – Pascal Siakam, New Mexico State
    2. 96 – Kameron Woods, Butler
    3. 95 – Jonathan Holton, West Virginia
    4. 91 – Justin Moss, Buffalo
    5. 87 – Devin Williams, West Virginia
    6. 86 – Octavius Ellis, Cincinnati
    7. 85 – Emmy Andujar, Manhattan
    8. 84 – Gary Clark, Cincinnati
    9. 81 – Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky
    10. 77 – AJ Hammons, Purdue
    11. 77 – Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky
    12. 76 – Vashil Fernandez, Valparaiso
    13. 74 – Cameron Ridley, Texas
    14. 74 -Xavier Ford, Buffalo

T-14.  74 – Ashton Pankey, Manhattan

Assists

  1. 226 – Jerian Grant, Notre Dame
  2. 170 – Fred Van Vleet, Wichita State
  3. 163 – Yogi Ferrell, Indiana
  4. 150 – Shannon Evans, Buffalo
  5. 138 – Lamonte Bearden, Buffalo
  6. 137 – Frank Mason, Kansas
  7. 126 – Andrew Harrison, Kentucky
  8. 125 – Juwan Staten, West Virginia
  9. 120 – Tyler Ulis, Kentucky
  10. 119 – David Walker, Northeastern
  11. 119 – Deron Powers, Hampton
  12. 118 – Roosevelt Jones, Butler
  13. 113 – Troy Caupain, Cincinnati
  14. 110 – TJ Williams, Northeastern
  15. 110 – Emmy Andujar, Manhattan

Turnovers

    1. 125 – Emmy Andujar, Manhattan
    2. 85 – Roosevelt Jones, Butler
    3. 82 – Shannon Evans, Buffalo
    4. 81 – Melo Trimble, Maryland
    5. 80 – Dez Wells, Maryland
    6. 79 – Dwight Meikle, Hampton
    7. 76 – Zach Stahl, Northeastern
    8. 74 – TJ Williams, Northeastern
    9. 74 – David Walker, Northeastern
    10. 73 – Jerian Grant, Notre Dame
    11. 73 – Ashton Pankey, Manhattan
    12. 72 – Justin Moss, Buffalo
    13. 72 – Ian Baker, New Mexico State
    14. 71 – AJ Hammons, Purdue

T-14.  71 – Quincy Ford, Northeastern

Steals

    1. 70 – Alex Barlow, Butler
    2. 65 – Emmy Andujar, Manhattan
    3. 59 – Jevon Carter, West Virginia
    4. 58 – Fred Van Vleet, Wichita State
    5. 57 – Jerian Grant, Notre Dame
    6. 56 – Demetrius Jackson, Notre Dame
    7. 55 – Shannon Evans, Buffalo
    8. 48 – Frank Mason, Kansas
    9. 47 – Ian Baker, New Mexico State
    10. 45 – Ke’Ron Brown, Hampton
    11. 44 – Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky
    12. 44 – Lamonte Bearden, Buffalo
    13. 43 – Tyler Wilson, Manhattan
    14. 42 – Aaron Harrison, Kentucky

T-14. 42 – Daniel Mullings, New Mexico State

Blocks

  1. 98 – Vashil Fernandez, Valparaiso
  2. 95 – AJ Hammons, Purdue
  3. 88 – Myles Turner, Texas
  4. 80 – Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky
  5. 66 – Octavius Ellis, Cincinnati
  6. 59 – Pascal Siakam, New Mexico State
  7. 57 – Cameron Ridley, Texas
  8. 56 – Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky
  9. 47 – Prince Ibeh, Texas
  10. 46 – Ashton Pankey, Manhattan
  11. 43 – Damonte Dobb, Maryland
  12. 43 – Scott Eatherton, Northeastern
  13. 43 – Dwight Meikle, Hampton
  14. 41- Gary Clark, Cincinnati
  15. 41 – Jervon Pressley, Hampton

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How They Got Here

1) Kentucky Wildcats – SEC Tournament champions

2) Kansas Jayhawks – At large

3) Notre Dame Fighting Irish – ACC Tournament champions

4) Maryland Terrapins – At large

5) West Virginia Mountaineers – At large

6) Butler Bulldogs – At large

7) Wichita State Shockers – At large

8) Cincinnati Bearcats – At large

9) Purdue Boilermakers – At large

10) Indiana Hoosiers – At large

11) Texas Longhorns – At large

12) Buffalo Bulls – MAC Tournament champions

13) Valparaiso Crusaders – Horizon Tournament champions

14) Northeastern Huskies – CAA Tournament champions

15) New Mexico State Aggies – WAC Tournament champions

16) Manhattan Jaspers – MAAC Tournament champions

16) Hampton Pirates – MEAC Tournament champions

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The Favorite – Kentucky Wildcats

The top overall seed is a gigantic favorite to win the region. There is one bracket where no other team has higher than 9 percent odds to come out of the bracket, this one. Cincinnati and Purdue have under 10 percent odds to beat Kentucky in the second round COMBINED. That’s how heavy a favorite the Wildcats are. No other team is above 82% to reach the Sweet 16.

It helps that the Wildcats got a very fortunate path. Maryland and West Virginia are each being talked about having a chance at being upset in the first round. When those are the two best teams you’ll face before the Elite 8, that’s not a bad road.

There’s also the fact that Kentucky went undefeated during the regular season and is really damn good.

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Elite 8 Sleeper – Wichita State

The Shockers look a little underseeded considering that a lot of the metrics had them as a top 20 team. It’s not often you see a 7 seed with the fourth best odds to make it out of their region. In fact, Wichita State is the only one. A potential second-round game with Kansas in Omaha would be a hell of a lot of fun. A potential Sweet 16 game with Notre Dame would have the looks of a great guard-dominated contest. Plus, the story of Wichita State trying to knock undefeated Kentucky out of the tournament a year after Kentucky knocked an undefeated Wichita State team out of the tournament is so good.

Also, Ron Baker and Fred Van Vleet are really great and you are going to have to kill them like Dracula to knock out the Shockers.

http://gty.im/466004710

Upset Everyone is Picking – Texas over Butler

The Longhorns have so many big bodies to throw at the Bulldogs. Kameron Woods is good, but he’s all Butler really has inside. Myles Turner, Cameron Ridley and company could and should dominate. Not playing Big 12 teams should be a help to Texas as well.

I would be wary of picking Texas just because the Longhorns have looked really strong but have dropped every close game as of late. They played well at Kansas but lost. UT was crushing Iowa State but then collapsed and lost. Butler is a team that’s going to bring it for all 40 minutes. Will Texas wilt?

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Can Notre Dame Make it Out of the First Weekend?

Notre Dame’s gigantic knock is that Mike Brey has not had tournament success. The Irish haven’t made it out of the first weekend since 2003. That’s also the only time ND has made it to the Sweet 16 since 1987. Notre Dame is 2-6 in its last six trips. This certainly looks like the best Irish team to make a run in years. While I personally think ND will make a run, I do wonder if the Irish will get a little tight in a close second-round game.

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What are the most and least likely tournament games among the 5 Indiana schools?

  1. Notre Dame vs Butler – Round of 32
  2. Notre Dame vs Indiana – Sweet 16
  3. Butler vs Indiana – Sweet 16
  4. Notre Dame vs Purdue – Elite 8
  5. Butler vs Purdue – Elite 8
  6. Indiana vs Purdue – Elite 8
  7. Purdue vs Valpo – Sweet 16
  8. Notre Dame vs Valpo – Elite 8
  9. Butler vs Valpo – Elite 8
  10. Indiana vs Valpo – Elite 8

 

Is there a case for anyone besides Kentucky?

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Not really. When every caveat to beating a team is that it has to play the worst game of the season and you play your best, that’s not really much of a case. The best case would be Notre Dame, someone that could hit a lot of threes and have a great offensive showing. The Irish have a deficient defense that would probably be taken advantage of, however. Kansas has already been destroyed by Kentucky. The other teams, besides Texas, don’t really have the talent to match up.

How do the teams stack up in terms of efficiency?

Glad you asked. To not overwhelm you with stats, here are the key efficiency stats: offense, defense, effective field goal percentage (weighs 3s), turnovers, and offensive rebounding percentage.

Offensive Efficiency

  1. 122.2 – Notre Dame
  2. 119.7 – Kentucky
  3. 116.6 – Indiana
  4. 113 – Wichita St
  5. 111.2 – West Virginia
  6. 110.8 – Kansas
  7. 110.3 – Texas
  8. 109.8 – Buffalo
  9. 108.5 – Maryland
  10. 108.5 – Purdue
  11. 107.5 – Butler
  12. 106.7 – Cincinnati
  13. 106 – Northeastern
  14. 104.1 – New Mexico St
  15. 103.8 – Valparaiso
  16. 100.9 – Manhattan
  17. 95.6 – Hampton

eFG %

  1. 58.6 – Notre Dame
  2. 54.6 – Indiana
  3. 54.6 – Northeastern
  4. 51.8 – Kentucky
  5. 51.4 – Valparaiso
  6. 51 – New Mexico St
  7. 50.9 – Maryland
  8. 50.7 – Purdue
  9. 50.7 – Wichita St
  10. 50.4 – Cincinnati
  11. 49.7 – Manhattan
  12. 49.4 – Texas
  13. 49.3 – Kansas
  14. 49.1 – Butler
  15. 48.6 – Buffalo
  16. 46.6 – West Virginia
  17. 45.8 – Hampton

Turnover %

  1. 14.4 – Notre Dame
  2. 15.2 – Wichita St
  3. 16.4 – Buffalo
  4. 16.4 – Kentucky
  5. 17.1 – Indiana
  6. 17.4 – Butler
  7. 18.4 – Maryland
  8. 18.7 – West Virginia
  9. 19.1 – Kansas
  10. 19.1 – Valparaiso
  11. 20 – Purdue
  12. 20 – Texas
  13. 20.5 – Hampton
  14. 21 – Manhattan
  15. 21.3 – Cincinnati
  16. 21.4 – Northeastern
  17. 21.9 – New Mexico St

Offensive Rebounding %

  1. 40.9 – West Virginia
  2. 40.4 – Kentucky
  3. 39.5 – New Mexico St
  4. 38 – Texas
  5. 37.3 – Cincinnati
  6. 36.2 – Purdue
  7. 35.5 – Butler
  8. 35.3 – Indiana
  9. 35 – Valparaiso
  10. 34.9 – Kansas
  11. 34.8 – Wichita St
  12. 34.7 – Buffalo
  13. 32.8 – Hampton
  14. 31 – Manhattan
  15. 29.6 – Northeastern
  16. 29.2 – Maryland
  17. 28.1 – Notre Dame

 

Defensive Efficiency

  1. 85.8 – Kentucky
  2. 90.5 – Kansas
  3. 91.7 – Butler
  4. 92.9 – Wichita St
  5. 93.3 – Cincinnati
  6. 93.3 – Texas
  7. 94.3 – Valparaiso
  8. 94.6 – Maryland
  9. 95.4 – West Virginia
  10. 97.1 – Purdue
  11. 97.6 – New Mexico St
  12. 98.5 – Buffalo
  13. 99.5 – Manhattan
  14. 99.7 – Notre Dame
  15. 102.3 – Hampton
  16. 102.4 – Northeastern
  17. 104.7 – Indiana

eFG%

  1. 39.7 – Kentucky
  2. 42.2 – Texas
  3. 44.4 – Kansas
  4. 44.5 – Cincinnati
  5. 44.9 – Valparaiso
  6. 45.2 – Wichita St
  7. 45.4 – Maryland
  8. 45.5 – Purdue
  9. 45.9 – New Mexico St
  10. 46.5 – Hampton
  11. 46.9 – Butler
  12. 48 – Manhattan
  13. 48.1 – Notre Dame
  14. 48.5 – Buffalo
  15. 49.6 – Northeastern
  16. 50.5 – Indiana
  17. 52.6 – West Virginia

Turnover %

  1. 28.2 – West Virginia
  2. 24.1 – Manhattan
  3. 21.8 – Kentucky
  4. 21.6 – Wichita St
  5. 20.5 – New Mexico St
  6. 20.3 – Cincinnati
  7. 20.1 – Hampton
  8. 19.8 – Buffalo
  9. 19.3 – Butler
  10. 18.6 – Valparaiso
  11. 17.8 – Purdue
  12. 17.5 – Kansas
  13. 17.3 – Maryland
  14. 17.4 – Notre Dame
  15. 16.1 – Indiana
  16. 15.6 – Northeastern
  17. 14.2 – Texas

Offensive Rebounding %

  1. 24.9 – Butler
  2. 25.6 – Northeastern
  3. 27 – Wichita St
  4. 27.6 – Valparaiso
  5. 29 – Texas
  6. 30.4 – Maryland
  7. 30.4 – Buffalo
  8. 30.7 – New Mexico St
  9. 30.9 – Hampton
  10. 31.1 – West Virginia
  11. 31.1 – Purdue
  12. 31.2 – Indiana
  13. 31.6 – Notre Dame
  14. 31.6 – Kentucky
  15. 31.8 – Cincinnati
  16. 31.8 – Kansas
  17. 33.7 – Manhattan

About Scott

I write Bearcats Blog and also on the Student Section.

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