2015 NCAA Tournament Preview: South Region

The South Region of the NCAA Tournament bracket is one that has drawn the most scoffs. Duke was comfortably a number 1 seed, even though they were not the ACC regular season or tournament champions. On top of that, they were placed in a region with the weakest 4 seed in Georgetown and a 5 seed many think is an upset risk with Utah. Duke finished out of the top 5 in the (outdated) RPI and are currently 7th on Ken Pom. The Blue Devils aren’t even considered the Ken Pom projection favorite.

With all of that being said, there is almost no one like Duke when the Blue Devils are rolling. They look like the best chance someone has at beating Kentucky. They look like the best team in the nation period at times. With Jahlil Okafor able to do whatever he wants in the middle, it opens the floor for Duke’s guards. Tyus Jones has taken over games late, Quinn Cook is a dead eye shooter, Justise Winslow adds a bit of it all. There is the dark side to this squad, namely on defense. If you watched Notre Dame dissect them in the ACC tournament, you know exactly what I’m talking about.

If Duke isn’t the computer favorite, who is? The answer are the Gonzaga Bulldogs. This is the most balanced team Mark Few has ever coached. A Gonzaga team that plays defense is something we haven’t really seen in recent years. All the hype surround the offense, which it should because the offense is great. Gonzaga shoots the ball just about as well as anyone. We could have a tremendous game if the Bulldogs meet up with Iowa State in the Sweet 16.

The Cyclones are an interesting bunch. They are team dramatic. There isn’t a game that goes by that doesn’t see them fall into a hole. Most of the time, Iowa State comes flying out of it with a chainsaw on their arm like Ash and use it to rip the other team apart with a huge run. There can’t be another team that is scarier when your favorite teams is up 15 points.

Georgetown is seemingly given no shot at advancing deep in the tournament. They were overseeded, which is not their fault. The Hoyas run of NCAA tournament futility since the 2007 Final Four is noted by everyone. The last five times they have made the tournament, Georgetown has lost to a double digit seed. There is a chance they could play two of them this weekend.

If any other team closed as uninspiring as Utah did, I would not pick them to go far. The Utes scuffled badly to a 5-5 record to close the regular season with some bad performances. The only bad loss was at Washington. Utah lost to Oregon twice and Arizona as well, but didn’t look good in wins at Oregon State or Washington State. The second half domination of Stanford gives some hope that his team can get back to what they were a month ago. There is a question of if they peaked too soon.

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How They Got Here

1) Duke Blue Devils – At large

2) Gonzaga Bulldogs – WCC Tournament champions

3) Iowa State Cyclones – Big 12 Tournament champions

4) Georgetown Hoyas – At large

5) Utah Utes – At large

6) SMU Mustangs – AAC Tournament champions

7) Iowa Hawkeyes – At large

8) San Diego State Aztecs – At large

9) St John’s Red Storm – At large

10) Davidson Wildcats – At large

11) UCLA Bruins – At large

12) Stephen F Austin Lumberjacks – Southland Tournament champions

13) Eastern Washington Eagles – Big Sky Tournament champions

14) UAB Blazers – Conference USA Tournament champions

15) North Dakota State JackRabbits – Summit Tournament champions

16) North Florida Osprey – Atlantic Sun Tournament champions

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Here are how the teams stack up according to the metrics. We will be using offensive and defensive efficiency, as well as three of the four factors: effective field goal percentage (weighs 3s), turnover percentage and offensive rebound percentage.

Offensive Efficiency

121.9 – Duke 2
119.4 – Gonzaga 6
118.9 – Iowa State 7
118.7 – Davidson 8
113.1 – Utah 20
112.9 – Stephen F. Austin 22
112.3 – SMU 25
111 – Iowa 36
110.3 – Georgetown 41
110.2 – UCLA 43
109.9 – Eastern Washington 47
108.1 – St John’s 62
105.6 – North Florida 98
103.7 – UAB 132
102.4 – San Diego State 165
101 – North Dakota State 194

eFG%

58.4 – Gonzaga 2
56.9 – Duke 4
56.2 – Stephen F. Austin 9
56 – Davidson 11
55.6 – Utah 13
55.4 – Eastern Washington 14
54.7 – Iowa State 16
53.6 – North Florida 32
52.4 – SMU 50
50.9 – Georgetown 85
49.4 – UCLA 155
49.3 – St John’s 159
49.2 – North Dakota State 167
47.8 – Iowa 228
47.8 – UAB 229
46.7 – San Diego State 271

Turnover %

14.3 – Davidson 2
15.7 – St John’s 12
15.8 – Iowa State 16
15.9 – North Dakota State 17
16 – Eastern Washington 19
16.3 – Gonzaga 31
16.8 – Duke 45
17.4 – Iowa 70
17.5 – UCLA 72
17.8 – Utah 87
18 – North Florida 103
18.6 – San Diego State 136
19.2 – Georgetown 184
19.7 – SMU 215
20.3 – Stephen F. Austin 256
20.4 – UAB 266

Offensive Rebound %

37.7 – Stephen F. Austin 13
37.4 – Duke 16
37 – SMU 19
35.9 – San Diego State 31
35.8 – Iowa 33
34.3 – Georgetown 70
34 – UAB 82
33.9 – Gonzaga 86
33.8 – UCLA 87
31.3 – Utah 163
29.8 – Davidson 215
29.4 – Eastern Washington 235
28.9 – North Florida 254
28.5 – Iowa State 264
27.8 – St John’s 279
26.5 – North Dakota State 309

Defensive Efficiency

88.3 – San Diego State 4
90.6 – Utah 8
92.5 – Gonzaga 21
93.7 – Georgetown 25
95 – SMU 42
95 – Iowa 43
95.7 – St John’s 51
96.2 – Duke 56
97.4 – UCLA 75
97.7 – Iowa State 82
99.3 – Stephen F. Austin 104
100.1 – North Dakota State 122
100.3 – UAB 127
102.8 – North Florida 173
103.1 – Davidson 181
107.7 – Eastern Washington 282

eFG %

42.7 – Utah 5
42.7 – San Diego State 6
43.6 – Gonzaga 9
45.1 – Iowa 31
45.5 – SMU 41
46.1 – St John’s 61
46.6 – Georgetown 71
47.2 – UAB 95
47.4 – Duke 98
47.8 – North Dakota State 113
47.9 – North Florida 119
47.9 – Iowa State 121
48.7 – UCLA 160
48.8 – Stephen F. Austin 162
49.1 – Davidson 168
52 – Eastern Washington 290

Turnover %

24.3 – Stephen F. Austin 5
21.5 – San Diego State 38
20.6 – Georgetown 83
20 – SMU 118
19.8 – UAB 130
19.5 – St John’s 143
19.3 – Iowa 156
18.7 – Duke 192
18.5 – Iowa State 212
18.5 – UCLA 214
18.3 – Utah 228
18.2 – North Florida 230
17.7 – Eastern Washington 260
17.6 – Gonzaga 264
17.3 – Davidson 276
16.6 – North Dakota State 309

Offensive Rebound %

23.4 – North Dakota State 2
28.1 – UCLA 50
28.1 – Utah 51
28.6 – Gonzaga 69
29.2 – Iowa State 85
29.3 – SMU 92
29.9 – Stephen F. Austin 116
30.1 – Duke 122
30.1 – Davidson 123
30.2 – San Diego State 125
30.5 – Iowa 147
30.6 – Eastern Washington 148
31.3 – Georgetown 182
32 – North Florida 226
33.1 – UAB 267
35.4 – St John’s 331

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The favorite – Duke Blue Devils

Yes, the computer likes Gonzaga more than Duke but I can’t go along. The Blue Devils do get the actual teams in the region who play defense on their side of the bracket. Duke is also a team full of pros, which you can’t really say about San Diego St or Utah. With how prone all of the teams can be, this region could be up in the air. I’m being boring and rolling with the top squad.

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Upset Some People are Picking – Davidson Over Iowa

There is good reason for this one and that is Davidson is a great offensive team and Iowa can not shoot well. The strength of the Hawkeyes is getting to the foul line, where they are a top 25 team in free throw percentage. Iowa is one of the teams in the region that crash the offensive glass, which is something Davidson needs to lock down if they are going to pull the upset. The Hawkeyes can really struggle from three point range and from two point range. Luckily for them, Davidson is very weak on the interior. Davidson shoots very well and don’t turn the ball over. Those are keys for an upset. Any team a team is great from three, that’s a major advantage.

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Game We Want to See: Gonzaga vs Iowa State

We need these teams to play. We need tons of threes in the air. We need Kyle Wiltjer and Georges Niang trying to top the other. We need Monte Morris being guarded by Gary Bell. We need Pangos. We need Gonzaga to be up 15 in the second half and the rally to start. We may or may not need a Gonzaga player crying on the court like Adam Morrison, but that might be pushing it too much.

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Best Scorer – Tyler Harvey, Eastern Washington

The nation’s leading scorer is the main reason that I would lean Eastern Washington over Georgetown. Of course Harvey gets it done in every way. He hits 52.4% of his two point shots, 40.4% from three point range and 85.4% from the free throw line. He’ll get his against anyone.

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Best First Round Story: Larry Brown vs UCLA

SMU is a bit of a comfortable favorite against the Bruins. The main story of this is Larry Brown coaching against the program he took to a title game back in the 1980s.

Who is most vulernable: Duke, Gonzaga or Iowa State?

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There are very legitimate cases to make all of them could lose in the second round. Duke could go up against a San Diego State team that is long and tenacious, followed by a Utah team that is great defensively. Back to back body blow games.

Gonzaga would have a tough game against Iowa or Davidson. The Wildcats offense could give Gonzaga fits the same way that BYU did. Iowa has a lot of great talented led by Aaron White.

Iowa State has a potential tough game against SMU waiting in the second round. The Mustangs with Markus Kennedy aren’t the same team that failed every early season test. The key for SMU would be holding on to the ball. SMU has playmakers like Nic Moore that could pull out a close contest.

How hard do teams have to try to turn it over in this region?

You can see those turnover rates, good lord. With how good the ball handling appears to be, some teams are going to be in trouble if they are down late. This is not the best region if you like a turnover fest.

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Let’s run down the best players in the South.

Points

22.9 – Tyler Harvey, Eastern Washington
18.8 – Lawrence Alexander, North Dakota St
17.7 – Jahlil Okafor, Duke
17.4 – D’Angelo Harrison, St John’s
17 – Tyler Kalinoski, Davidson
16.7 – Kyle Wiltjer, Gonzaga
16.6 – Venky Jois, Eastern Washington
16.4 – Norman Powell, UCLA
16.3 – Jack Gibbs, Davidson
16.2 – D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera, Georgetown
16 – Aaron White, Iowa
15.9 – Dallas Moore, North Florida
15.7 – Quinn Cook, Duke
15.7 – Thomas Walkup, Stephen F Austin
15.4 – Georges Niang, Iowa State
15.2 – Rodney Pryor, Robert Morris
15.1 – Bryce Alford, UCLA
14.9 – Delon Wright, Utah
14.8 – Lucky Jones, Robert Morris
14.3 – Dysheed Jordan, St John’s
14.3 – Elijah Minnie, Robert Morris
14.2 – Nic Moore, SMU
14.1 – Jacob Parker, Stephen F Austin
13.5 – Sir’Dominic Pointer, St John’s
13.1 – Phil Greene IV, St John’s
13.1 – Robert Brown, UAB

Field Goals Made

239 – Jahlil Okafor, Duke
221 – Tyler Harvey, Eastern Washington
214 – Kyle Wiltjer, Gonzaga
207 – Dallas Moore, North Florida
202 – Venky Jois, Eastern Washington
196 – Lawrence Alexander, North Dakota St
195 – Norman Powell, UCLA
189 – Tyler Kalinoski, Davidson
183 – Georges Niang, Iowa State
183 – Rodney Pryor, Robert Morris
181 – Thomas Walkup, Stephen F Austin
179 – Marcquise Reed, Robert Morris
172 – Quinn Cook, Duke
171 – D’Angelo Harrison, St John’s
166 – Sir’Dominic Pointer, St John’s

Free Throws Made

189 – Aaron White, Iowa
152 – D’Angelo Harrison, St John’s
147 – Tyler Harvey, Eastern Washington
144 – Thomas Walkup, Stephen F Austin
136 – Delon Wright, Utah
132 – Jalen Nesbitt, North Florida
127 – D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera, Georgetown
122 – Tyus Jones, Duke
115 – Norman Powell, UCLA
112 – Bryce Alford, UCLA
111 – Lawrence Alexander, North Dakota St
108 – Rysheed Jordan, St John’s
104 – Lucky Jones, Robert Morris
103 – Jacob Parker, Stephen F Austin
100 – Nic Moore, SMU

Free Throw % – min 40 attempts

88.5 – Nic Moore, SMU
88.4 – Tyus Jones, Duke
88.3 – Kevin Pangos, Gonzaga
87.6 – D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera, Georgetown
87.5 – Brandon Taylor, Utah
86.4 – Trent Mackey, North Florida
86.3 – Jordan Loveridge, Utah
85.3 – Jack Gibbs, Davidson
85 – Tyler Harvey, Eastern Washington
84.8 – Nick Norton, UAB
84.2 – Bryce Alford, UCLA
83.7 – Jacob Parker, Stephen F Austin
83.4 – Delon Wright, Utah
82.6 – Jared Johnson, Stephen F Austin
82 – AJ Jacobson, North Dakota St

3 Pointers Made

122 – Tyler Harvey, Eastern Washington
100 – Lawerence Alexander, North Dakota St
91 – Quinn Cook, Duke
91 – Tyler Kalinoski, Davidson
83 – Beau Beech, North Florida
81 – Brian Sullivan, Davidson
80 – Trent Mackey, North Florida
79 – Bryce Alford, UCLA
76 – Rodney Pryor, Robert Morris
75 – Naz Long, Iowa State
75 – Brandon Taylor, Utah
72 – Kevin Pangos, Gonzaga
71 – Nic Moore, SMU
68 – D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera, Georgetown
65 – D’Angelo Harrison, St John’s

3 Point % – min 40 attempts

56.1 – Bogdan Bliznyuk, Eastern Washington
47.5 – William Lee, UAB
47 – Jacob Parker, Stephen F Austin
46.6 – Kyle Wiltjer, Gonzaga
46.5 – Sterling Brown, SMU
46.3 – Brekkot Chapman, Utah
45.8 – Kevon Looney, UCLA
44.4 – Kevin Pangos, Gonzaga
44.1 – Jack Gibbs, Davidson
44.1 – Parker Kelly, Eastern Washington
44.1 – Lawrence Alexander, North Dakota St
44 – Elijah Minnie, Robert Morris
44 – Trent Mackey, North Florida
43.9 – Brandon Taylor, Utah
43.8 – Dustin Hogue, Iowa State
43.8 – Jordan Loveridge, Utah

Rebounds

302 – Kevon Looney, UCLA
288 – Jahlil Okafor, Duke
243 – Sir’Dominic Pointer, St John’s
241 – Aaron White, Iowa
236 – Domantas Sabonis, Gonzaga
234 – Drew Brandon, Eastern Washington
230 – Venky Jois, Eastern Washington
215 – Chris Davenport, North Florida
213 – Jakob Poeltl, Utah
211 – Yanick Moreira, SMU
211 – Thomas Walkup, Stephen F Austin
209 – Chris Obekpa, St John’s
205 – Kyle Wiltjer, Gonzaga
204 – Tony Parker, UCLA
200 – Jarrod Uthoff, Iowa

Offensive Rebounds

125 – Jahlil Okafor, Duke
111 – Kevon Looney, UCLA
83 – Jakob Poeltl, Utah
82 – Tony Parker, UCLA
81 – Joshua Smith, Georgetown
80 – Amile Jefferson Duke
79 – Yanick Moreira, SMU
79 – Thomas Walkup, Stephen F Austin
79 – Venky Jois, Eastern Washington
73 – Mikael Hopkins, Georgetown
72 – Gabriel Olaseni, Iowa
72 – Chris Obekpa, St John’s
71 – Domantas Sabonis, Gonzaga
71 – JJ O’Brien, San Diego St
69 – Aaron White, Iowa

Assists

190 – Tyus Jones, Duke
172 – Monte Morris, Iowa State
172 – Nic Moore, SMU
170 – Kevin Pangos, Gonzaga
169 – Delon Wright, Utah
166 – Bryce Alford, UCLA
159 – Drew Brandon, Eastern Washington
144 – Kavon Stewart, Robert Morris
130 – Nick Norton, UAB
128 – Tyler Kalinoski, Davidson
128 – Trey Pinkney, Stephen F Austin
124 – Mike Gesell, Iowa
123 – Dallas Moore, North Florida
121 – Thomas Walkup, Stephen F Austin
120 – Brian Sullivan, Davidson

Turnovers

91 – Rysheed Jordan, St John’s
88 – Georges Niang, Iowa State
87 – Marcquise Reed, Robert Morris
85 – Nic Moore, SMU
83 – Bryce Alford, UCLA
82 – Jahlil Okafor, Duke
82 – Kavon Stewart, Robert Morris
82 – Jalen Nesbitt, North Florida
81 – Winston Shepard, San Diego St
77 – Isaac Hamilton, UCLA
77 – Dallas Moore, North Florida
72 – Robert Brown, UAB
72 – Lucky Jones, Robert Morris
72 – Chris Davenport, North Florida
70 – Norman Powell, UCLA

Steals

66 – Delon Wright, Utah
64 – Norman Powell, UCLA
62 – Marcquise Reed, Robert Morris
61 – Sir’Dominic Pointer, St John’s
60 – Monte Morris, Iowa State
59 – Drew Brandon, Eastern Washington
57 – Jalen Nesbitt, North Florida
54 – Kavon Stewart, Robert Morris
51 – Rysheed Jordan, St John’s
49 – Tyus Jones, Duke
49 – JJ O’Brien, San Diego St
48 – D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera, Georgetown
46 – Nick Norton, UAB
45 – Kevin Pangos, Gonzaga
45 – Trey Pinkney, Stephen F. Austin

Blocks

94 – Chris Obekpa, St John’s
85 – Skylar Spencer, San Diego St
78 – Sir’Dominic Pointer, St John’s
67 – Venky Jois, Eastern Washington
64 – Tosin Mehinti, UAB
54 – Jakob Poeltl, Utah
54 – Jarrod Uthoff, Iowa
53 – Jameel McKay, Iowa State
53 – Demarcus Daniels, North Florida
50 – Gabriel Olaseni, Iowa
49 – Mikael Hopkins, Georgetown
49 – Tanner Clayton, Stephen F. Austin
48 – William Lee, UAB
45 – Chris Kading, North Dakota St
44 – Jahlil Okafor, Duke

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