2015 NCAA Tournament Preview: West Region

Only two of the best three teams in the nation according to the Ken Pom ratings is going to go to the Final Four. That’s because there is a potential battle of behemoths looming in the Elite 8 between the Wisconsin Badgers and Arizona Wildcats. All season long the Badgers have eviscerated opponents with the best offense in the nation. With Big Ten, and soon to be National, player of the year Frank Kaminsky leading the way, the Badgers are nearly unstoppable. Wisconsin lived up to it’s ranking all season long.

Meanwhile in the west, the Arizona Wildcats dominated. There were some odd losses sprinkled in like at UNLV, Oregon State and Arizona State. Those were the only hiccups in a slate the Arizona mostly dominated. Only two of the Wildcats last 11 games been decided by single digits. This is a team on a mission to reach the Final Four. They’ll get a shot at redemption against the team that knocked them out last season, Wisconsin.

The overwhelming story of the region is a potential Wisconsin-Arizona matchup in the Elite 8. No one else in the region is projected with a better than 19% chance of advancing that far, the other regions have four teams. Baylor and North Carolina are each good teams. Neither is considered much of a threat to the top seeds. The fifth favorite in the league is the 10 seed Ohio State, who has an 11.1% projection to the Sweet 16.

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How They Got Here

1) Wisconsin Badgers – Big Ten Tournament champions

2) Arizona Wildcats – Pac 12 Tournament champions

3) Baylor Bears – At large

4) North Carolina Tar Heels – At large

5) Arkansas Razorbacks – At large

6) Xavier Musketeers – At large

7) VCU Rams – Atlantic 10 Tournament champions

8) Oregon Ducks – At large

9) Oklahoma State Cowboys – At large

10) Ohio State Buckeyes – At large

11) Ole Miss Rebels – At large

12) Wofford Terriers – Southern Conference Tournament champions

13) Harvard Crimson – Ivy League Champions

14) Georgia State Panthers – Sun Belt Tournament champions

15) Texas Southern Tigers – SWAC Tournament champions

16) Coastal Carolina Chanticleers – Big South Tournament champions

Here’s a look at how the teams break down according to the key stats and four factors. They are offensive and defensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage (weighs 3s), turnover percentage and offensive rebound percentage.

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Offensive Efficiency

124.6 – Wisconsin 1
116 – Arizona 11
115.2 – North Carolina 12
114.8 – Baylor 13
113.4 – Oregon 16
113.3 – Ole Miss 18
113.1 – Arkansas 19
11.9 – Xavier 28
111.5 – Ohio State 29
109.4 – Oklahoma State 49
108.5 – Georgia State 56
108.3 – VCU 61
103.6 – Coastal Carolina 140
103.3 – Wofford 145
102 – Harvard 172
107.7 – Texas Southern 179

eFG%

54.6 – Wisconsin 18
54.5 – Ohio State 21
53.6 – Arizona 30
53 – Xavier 40
52.1 – Oregon 58
51.9 – Georgia State 64
51.5 – Wofford 74
51.4 – North Carolina 77
50.2 – Arkansas 110
50.1 – Oklahoma State 113
49.9 – Coastal Carolina 125
49.8 – Baylor 126
49.4 – Texas Southern 149
48.8 – VCU 187
48.2 – Ole Miss 207
47.3 – Harvard 250

Turnover %

12.4 – Wisconsin 1
15.7 – VCU 11
16.5 – Georgia State 37
16.6 – Arkansas 40
16.6 – Ole Miss 42
16.7 – Arizona 43
17 – Oregon 49
17 – Ohio State 52
17.3 – Wofford 66
17.8 – Coastal Carolina 84
18 – Xavier 98
18.2 – North Carolina 110
18.6 – Oklahoma State 132
18.7 – Harvard 139
19.6 – Baylor 210
19.9 – Texas Southern 223

Offensive Rebound %

41.8 – Baylor 2
39.9 – North Carolina 6
35.6 – Arkansas 37
35.2 – Coastal Carolina 45
34.9 – Ole Miss 52
34.1 – Arizona 73
34.1 – Ohio State 76
34 – Texas Southern 78
32.3 – Harvard 119
31.9 – Wisconsin 133
31.7 – VCU 142
31.3 – Xavier 158
30.6 – Oregon 183
30.5 – Georgia State 189
29.3 – Wofford 238
26.9 – Oklahoma State 299

Defensive Efficency

86.4 – Arizona 3
93.6 – VCU 22
94.4 – Wisconsin 31
94.5 – Baylor 32
94.6 – Harvard 35
94.9 – Ohio State 39
95.1 – North Carolina 44
96.1 – Xavier 54
96.2 – Oklahoma State 60
97.5 – Wofford 77
97.5 – Arkansas 78
99.1 – Georgia State 102
99.9 – Ole Miss 117
100.6 – Oregon 132
102.2 – Coastal Carolina 165
104.9 – Texas Southern 221

eFG%

44.3 – Arizona 16
45 – Georgia State 30
45.3 – North Carolina 37
45.8 – Baylor 53
46 – Oklahoma State 58
46.1 – Harvard 59
46.6 – Ohio State 72
46.7 – Wisconsin 77
46.9 – Wofford 87
47.1 – Coastal Carolina 92
47.4 – Ole Miss 99
47.8 – Oregon 114
48.6 – Arkansas 153
48.9 – Texas Southern 163
49.3 – VCU 182
50.2 – Xavier 222

Turnover %

23.8 – VCU 9
22.8 – Georgia State 16
22.6 – Arkansas 20
22.1 – Ohio State 23
21.2 – Oklahoma State 55
21.1 – Arizona 58
20.1 – Wofford 115
19.9 – Harvard 124
19.6 – Baylor 141
19.3 – Xavier 158
18.7 – Ole Miss 185
18.7 – Texas Southern 196
17.8 – North Carolina 258
17 – Coastal Carolina 292
16.8 – Oregon 300
16.7 – Wisconsin 305

Offensive Rebound %

22.3 – Arizona 1
23.7 – Wisconsin 4
27.1 – Xavier 35
27.6 – Coastal Carolina 38
27.7 – Wofford 40
27.8 – Harvard 44
30.5 – North Carolina 143
30.8 – VCU 153
31.3 – Ole Miss 183
31.4 – Ohio State 188
31.7 – Oregon 209
31.7 – Baylor 210
33.1 – Oklahoma State 270
34.2 – Arkansas 307
34.2 – Texas Southern 310
34.5 – Georgia State 321

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The Favorite – Arizona Wildcats

Playing out west should be a big advantage for the Wildcats, although it wasn’t last season. Arizona looks to be a little more balanced than Wisconsin. The Badgers defense isn’t a huge cause for concern, but when you are picking between elite teams, there has to be some give. The one question about Arizona would be if their offense can not go in dark periods where they aren’t scoring. Wisconsin is going to get theirs, Arizona has to as well. Both of these teams are on missions. Sean Miller has never been to a Final Four. This is great chance to reach one.

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The Dark Horse – Ohio State Buckeyes

Immediately after naming Arizona the favorite, I pick a darkhorse team that would beat them in round two. There really aren’t a ton of options in this region. North Carolina as a 4 seed wouldn’t really be a dark horse. Arkansas has some problems. Xavier has been blown out by the very good teams they have played. Ohio State is a favorite over VCU in round one and the Buckeyes have the best player in the entire region in D’Angelo Russell. If one is banking on Ohio State to make a run, having a great player carry your team for multiple rounds is a great way to do it. Seem to remember that scenario happening last season.

Upset Everyone is Picking – Ohio State over VCU

Since we just covered Ohio State, let’s talk about one of the trendy picks, Wofford over Arkansas.

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At first glance, many TV pundits picked Wofford to topple the Razorbacks. The public hasn’t really done that. Arkansas is about an 80-20 favorite on the brackets on ESPN and Yahoo. It’s hard to see this upset happening if Arkansas plays well. Obviously there is a chance they can not, Road Arkansas can strike at any time. Wofford doesn’t do things that take advantage of Arkansas weaknesses. Wofford doesn’t hit the offensive glass very strong, they don’t get to the foul line a ton. One major plus for them is that the Terriers shoot the three ball pretty well and Arkansas has been pretty poor at limiting those shots.

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Will this bracket feature offensive rebounding and turnovers?

It doesn’t really seem like it based on the numbers. A lot of the defenses are the ones that dig their heels in the sand and make you make plays. There are some exceptions, but many many. Half of the bracket specialize in not turning the ball over. Ohio State is barely out of the top 50 in turnover percentage and they are the eighth best team at protecting the ball in this grouping.

Baylor and North Carolina hit the offensive boards very, very hard. Outside of those two, there isn’t a lot of strong offensive rebounding to be seen. Most of the teams seem to thrive on the defensive glass. That’s something to watch when Baylor potentially meets up with an Arizona and North Carolina or Arkansas potentially meet up with Wisconsin.

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What team has the best storyline?

Hands down this is one belongs to Arizona. The Wildcats could meet Ohio State in round two. Sean Miller was an assistant on Thad Matta’s Xavier staff. Miller’s worst tournament loss was at Xavier when Matta’s Buckeye team was able to rally past the Musketeers in overtime.

In the Sweet 16, Miller could be forced with the prospects of playing Xavier. There was no bad blood between the coach and university when Miller left. Miller had current Xavier coach Chris Mack on his staff at Xavier.

As mentioned up top, the Elite 8 could see Arizona battle Wisconsin for the right to go to the Final Four. This bracket could be quite the story for Sean Miller. One he would never forget.

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Who is a player outside of D’Angelo Russell that could get hot and carry his team on a run?

Stefan Moody of Ole Miss is my answer here. If you saw the game against BYU, you know exactly why.

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Who is the best duo no one has seen play?

That would be RJ Hunter and Ryan Harrow at Georgia State. The Panthers were not given a great matchup with Baylor, especially considering how incredibly weak Georgia State is at defensive rebounding. Their guards give them an advantage though. Hunter is going to be a draft pick this year. Harrow is a great talent that has bounced around quite a bit. Harrow is nursing a hamstring injury, which hopefully won’t hobble him too much. They are players to watch.

Here are more players to watch, the statistical leaders of the West region.

Points

20.2 – Joseph Young, Oregon
19.7 – RJ Hunter, Georgia State
19.4 – Ryan Harrow, Georgia State
19.3 – D’Angelo Russell, Ohio St
18.2 – Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin
17.5 – Bobby Portis, Arkansas
17.1 – Le’Bryan Nash, Oklahoma St
16.6 – Stefan Moody, Ole Miss
16.3 – Treveon Graham, VCU
16.3 – Wesley Saunders, Harvard
15.5 – Michael Qualls, Arkansas
15.1 – Phil Forte III, Oklahoma St
14.6 – Karl Cochran, Wofford
14.1 – Stanley Johnson, Arizona
14.1 – Madarious Gibbs, Texas Southern
13.9 – Marcus Paige, North Carolina
13.8 – Taurean Prince, Baylor
13.2 – Brice Johnson, North Carolina
13.2 – Elgin Cook, Oregon
13.1 – Warren Gillis, Coastal Carolina
12.9 – Sam Dekkar, Wisconsin
12.9 – Josh Cameron, Coastal Carolina
12.6 – Chris Thomas, Texas Southern
12.4 – Nigel Hayes, Wisconsin
12.4 – Jarvis Summer, Ole Miss

Field Goals Made

245 – Joseph Young, Oregon
240 – Bobby Portis, Arkansas
223 – Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin
218 – D’Angelo Russell, Ohio St
206 – Ryan Harrow, Georgia State
196 – Brice Johnson, North Carolina
192 – RJ Hunter, Georgia State
178 – Karl Cochran, Wofford
172 – Le’Bryan Nash, Oklahoma St
169 – Sam Dekker, Wisconsin
169 – Treveon Graham, VCU
164 – Michael Qualls, Arkansas
163 – Stefan Moody, Ole Miss
162 – Taurean Prince, Baylor
162 – Elgin Cook, Oregon

Free Throws Made

193 – RJ Hunter, Georgia State
168 – Le’Bryan Nash, Oklahoma St
147 – Stefan Moody, Ole Miss
146 – Michael Qualls, Arkansas
132 – Wesley Saunders, Harvard
130 – Phil Forte, Oklahoma St
124 – Stanley Johnson, Arizona
123 – Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Arizona
123 – Rico Gathers, Baylor
123 – Treveon Graham, VCU
123 – Jarvis Summers, Ole Miss
120 – Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin
120 – Elgin Cook, Oregon
114 – Shivaguhn Wiggins, Coastal Carolina
112 – D’Angelo Russell, Ohio St

Free Throw % – min 40 attempts

91.8 – Joseph Young, Oregon
90.2 – Stefan Moody, Ole Miss
87.6 – Rashad Madden, Arkansas
87.3 – RJ Hunter, Georgia State
87 – Warren Gillis, Coastal Carolina
86.9 – Nate Britt, North Carolina
86.6 – Myles Davis, Xavier
86 – Marcus Paige, North Carolina
85.4 – Traevon Jackson, Wisconsin
83.9 – Phil Forte, Oklahoma St
83.6 – Josh Gasser, Wisconsin
83.1 – Kenny Cherry, Baylor
83 – Bronson Koenig, Wisconsin
82.4 – Dillon Brooks, Oregon
81.2 – Siyani Chambers, Harvard

3 Pointers Made

96 – Karl Cochran, Wofford
90 – D’Angelo Russell, Ohio St
86 – Marcus Paige, North Carolina
86 – Joseph Young, Oregon
84 – Melvin Johnson, VCU
76 – Stefan Moody, Ole Miss
75 – RJ Hunter, Georgia State
69 – Phil Forte, Oklahoma St
62 – Anthlon Bell, Arkansas
62 – Treveon Graham, VCU
62 – Corbin Miller, Harvard
62 – Elijah Wilson, Coastal Carolina
61 – Josh Cameron, Coastal Carolina
58 – Taurean Prince, Baylor
56 – Gabe York, Arizona
56 – LaDarius White, Ole Miss

3 Point % – min 40 attempts

46.5 – Marc Loving, Ohio St
44.6 – Malcolm Riley, Texas Southern
43.9 – Badou Diagne, Coastal Carolina
43.4 – Royce O’Neale
42 – Remy Abell, Xavier
41.9 – Jalil Abdul-Bassit, Oregon
41.5 – Bronson Koenig, Wisconsin
41.5 – D’Angelo Russell, Ohio St
41.4 – Siyani Chambers, Harvard
40.7 – Jaylen Allen, Wofford
40.3 – Nigel Hayes, Wisconsin
40.3 – LaDarius White, Ole Miss
39.5 – Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin
39.5 – Taurean Prince, Baylor
39.3 – Anthony Hickey, Oklahoma St

Rebounds

382 – Rico Gathers, Baylor
294 – Bobby Portis, Arkansas
271 – Brice Johnson, North Carolina
264 – Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin
255 – Kennedy Meeks, North Carolina
246 – Badou Diagne, Coastal Carolina
232 – Matt Stainbrook, Xavier
230 – Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Arizona
225 – Treveon Graham, VCU
224 – Stanley Johnson, Arizona
220 – Markus Crider, Georgia State
220 – Malcolm Riley, Texas Southern
219 – Nigel Hayes, Wisconsin
214 – Steve Moundou-Missi, Harvard
210 – Jalen Reynolds, Xavier

Offensive Rebounds

159 – Rico Gathers, Baylor
120 – Bobby Portis, Arkansas
108 – Mo Alie-Cox, VCU
89 – Kennedy Meeks, North Carolina
82 – Brice Johnson, North Carolina
80 – Tristian Curtis, Coastal Carolina
71 – Johnathan Motely, Baylor
70 – Nigel Hayes, Wisconsin
70 – Matt Stainbrook, Xavier
70 – Treveon Graham, VCU
69 – Stanley Johnson, Arizona
68 – Badou Diagne, Coastal Carolina
67 – Sam Dekker, Wisconsin
67 – Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Arizona
66 – Malcolm Riley, Texas Southern

Assists

218 – TJ McConnell, Arizona
209 – Dee Davis, Xavier
195 – Shannon Scott, Ohio St
169 – D’Angelo Russell, Ohio St
161 – Marcus Paige, North Carolina
154 – Rashad Madden, Arkansas
153 – Jarvis Summers, Ole Miss
148 – JP Tokoto, North Carolina
132 – Madarious Gibbs, Texas Southern
127 – Joseph Young, Oregon
123 – Wesley Saunders, Harvard
123 – Siyani Chambers, Harvard
120 – RJ Hunter, Georgia State
112 – Kenny Cherry, Baylor
111 – Royce O’Neale, Baylor

Turnovers

97 – D’Angelo Russell, Ohio St
93 – Le’Bryan Nash, Oklahoma St
89 – Madarious Gibbs, Texas Southern
87 – Warren Gillis, Coastal Carolina
84 – Chris Thomas, Texas Southern
82 – JP Tokoto, North Carolina
82 – Joseph Young, Oregon
81 – Dee Davis, Xavier
78 – Rashad Madden, Arkansas
76 – Shannon Scott, Ohio St
76 – Wesely Saunders, Harvard
75 – RJ Hunter, Georgia State
74 – Stanley Johnson, Arizona
73 – JeQuan Lewis, VCU
73 – Elgin Cook, Oregon

Steals

72 – RJ Hunter, Georgia State
71 – TJ McConnell, Arizona
61 – Phil Forte, Oklahoma St
61 – Karl Cochran, Wofford
59 – Anthony Hickey, Oklahoma St
58 – Shannon Scott, Ohio St
57 – Marcus Paige, North Carolina
57 – Stefan Moody, Ole Miss
55 – Kevin Ware, Georgia State
53 – D’Angelo Russell, Ohio St
53 – Wesley Saunders, Harvard
52 – JP Tokoto, North Carolina
51 – Stanley Johnson, Arizona
51 – Lester Medford, Baylor
49 – Taurean Prince, Baylor
49 – JeQuan Lewis, VCU

Blocks

86 – Jordan Bell, Oregon
68 – Mo Alie-Cox, VCU
54 – Nick Shepard, Texas Southern
53 – Michael Cobbins, Oklahoma St
52 – Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin
49 – Bobby Portis, Arkansas
49 – Amir Williams, Ohio St
46 – Johnathan Motley, Baylor
46 – Kennedy Meeks, North Carolina
43 – Steve Mondou-Missi, Harvard
43 – Curtis Washington, Georgia State
38 – Brice Johnson, North Carolina
38 – Moses Kingsley, Arkansas
36 – Karl Cochran, Wofford
34 – Rico Gathers, Baylor
34 – Alandise Harris, Arkansas

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