Even as a fan of a perennial contender, my favorite (and I assume most people’s favorite) part about the NCAA tournament is the opening two days and the possibility of seeing upsets I’ll remember for years.
It’s weird that we will remember certain games instead of others: I will always remember watching Northwestern State upset Iowa in the first round of the 2006 NCAA tournament despite having no connection to either school (though I likely remember because our AP Chemistry teacher let us watch during class). I remember sitting in my apartment during law school when Norfolk State upset Missouri (though, as a Kansas fan, that memory is a bit more understandable).
An occurrence more frequent than the major upsets are the 14, 15, and even 16 seeds putting up a fight in the first half, and sometimes even into the second half, before ultimately falling away. While it seems like more and more first-round upsets happen each year, sadly I am here to throw some cold water on the proceedings and provide five popular upset picks that probably aren’t going to happen.
(12) Wyoming over (5) Northern Iowa – East Region
12-over-5 upset picks are the most popular “out there” upset picks for good reason, but this was a bad draw for the Cowboys. The Mountain West Tournament champs finally lived up to their preseason promise, culminating in a 45-43 win over San Diego State in the title game. However, the Cowboys, who revel in slowing the game down, drew another team which does the exact same thing. The Cowboys’ offensive possessions last an average of 21.6 seconds, which is 348th out of 351 division 1 teams, but the Panthers aren’t far behind, averaging 21.2 seconds per offensive possession and 20.1 seconds per defensive possession, so they are used to drawn-out slugfests.
It will be a bit of a matchup of strengths, as Wyoming and Northern Iowa are both elite at scoring inside the arc, and both are just inside the top 50 at stopping teams from scoring inside the arc. One interesting point about this game is that both teams will be able to negate the other’s ability on the defensive glass, but not how you think. Both Northern Iowa and Wyoming simply don’t attack the offensive glass at all, which paradoxically reduces the other’s benefit from being a very good defensive rebounding team.
(13) Harvard over (4) North Carolina – West
After winning a game in each of the last two tournaments, Harvard will no doubt be a popular pick in this one as well. The Crimson do benefit from getting to play the Tar Heels outside of North Carolina: UNC has not advanced past the first weekend when starting its NCAA tournament outside North Carolina since 2000. With this game being played in decidedly neutral Jacksonville, the Crimson have a chance to take advantage of what should be a comparatively less electric atmosphere.
This is not the Crimson of the last couple years, however. The loss of Kyle Casey and the inability of other players to make huge forward strides have really taken a toll on Harvard’s offense, which ranked fourth in its own conference and currently sits at 171st in adjusted offensive efficiency at KenPom. North Carolina’s defense might have benefited a bit from luck this year, allowing a lot of three-point attempts yet not a lot of makes. However, the Heels’ size on the wings and inside will likely frustrate the Crimson.
North Carolina point guard Marcus Paige has struggled a bit at times this season, but he still shoots 45.6 percent on twos and 38.6 percent on threes, and has had a much better season than anyone in Harvard’s backcourt. Guards win in March, so the Heels will stave off the upset bid.
Buffalo is looking to pull off the next incarnation of the 12/5 upset
(12) Buffalo over (5) West Virginia – Midwest
In another 12/5 matchup, the Bulls are making their first NCAA tournament appearance. The Bulls take care of the ball on offense, which is imperative against West Virginia’s press, but the Mountaineers will likely be able to turn them over enough to get extra possessions and easy baskets, which is a key to preventing an upset.
Elsewhere, West Virginia doesn’t shoot the ball well, but Buffalo doesn’t have a player standing over 6’7″. The Mountaineers, who rank fourth nationally in offensive rebounding, will likely be able to play volleyball on the glass until they finally score.
(11) Boise/Dayton winner over (6) Providence – East
I’ve seen a lot of people penciling in the play-in winner over the Friars, who admittedly may be a bit overseeded, but neither the Broncos nor the Flyers (by the way, Archie Miller is the national coach of the year…) have the personnel to take down Providence.
Again, guards win in March, and Providence might have the best one out there in Kris Dunn, who shoots 51 percent on twos, has a fairly low 24.3-percent turnover rate and, oh yeah, leads the nation with a ridiculous 50.5-percent assist rate, one of just five assist rates over 50 percent since KenPom began keeping track of individual stats 11 years ago.
The Friars don’t shoot threes well or often, which could hurt if they need to catch up in a hurry, but they have a ton of size and pound the offensive glass well, meaning they can survive an off shooting night if need be.
(11) Texas over (6) Butler – Midwest
Texas has a lot of size, a lottery pick (Myles Turner), a preseason top 10 pedigree, and is actually favored over the Bulldogs by two points at KenPom. The Longhorns have defeated Baylor and almost beat Iowa State in the past two weeks. Isaiah Taylor is a very good point guard when he doesn’t shoot it all the time. Furthermore, Texas ranks first in the nation in defense inside the arc, allowing opponents to make just 37.8 percent of their twos.
Counterpoint: c’mon, it’s Texas.
