In a 68-team tournament, it doesn’t seem very likely that one team would consistently become another team’s constant roadblock. Yet, some bracket oddities manage to create a situation in which one school’s plans are constantly frustrated by a specific foe.
Utah went through a stretch in the 1990s in which it simply couldn’t get out of Kentucky’s way. The Utes lost to the Wildcats in the 1993 NCAA Tournament and then three straight years, from 1996 through 1998. In 2003 and 2005, Utah met Kentucky again and still couldn’t break through. You could spend a lot of time lost in an NCAA tournament rabbit hole, wondering how many other schools have a particular March nemesis, if any. It’s one of the more fascinating components of this tournament, especially since it began to be seeded in 1979 while also zooming from a mid-20s field in the early 1970s to the 68-team bracket of today.
While you spend time researching, though, you can simply acknowledge this: Michigan State has affirmed that it is better than Virginia in the NCAA tournament — not over the course of each of the last two regular seasons, mind you, but certainly in the pressure cooker of the Madness. It’s maddening beyond words for the Hoos and their fans — Virginia was a far better team over the course of four months, and should still be recognized as the better team — but if there’s a team UVA should not want to see in the brackets in 2016, it’s the one from East Lansing, the one coached by Tom Izzo.
After beating Virginia in the 2014 NCAA Tournament, the Spartans doubled their pleasure on multiple levels in the 2015 Dance. On Sunday afternoon in Charlotte, they took down the Cavaliers in the round of 32 instead of the Sweet 16 (as they did a year ago). Virginia wanted revenge, but Michigan State wouldn’t cooperate, and now, the East Region has become the first NCAA tournament region since the 2004 Midwest (St. Louis was the regional site) to eliminate each of its top two seeds before the Sweet 16. This leads to the most central storyline of Michigan State’s victory.
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When Villanova lost to North Carolina State on Saturday, this game — already a headliner of a matchup and greatly anticipated in all corners of the country — acquired a new level of importance. Oklahoma is widely seen as a team that could have been seeded fourth, not third. Louisville is a team that easily could have been seeded fifth, not fourth. It was quite reasonable to anoint the winner of this game as the favorite in the East heading into Syracuse for the regional semifinals — Virginia based on season-long quality, Michigan State based on the ability of Tom Izzo to not only win in March, but to do so as a mid-level seed.
Keep in mind that two of Michigan State’s last three Final Fours under Izzo have emerged as a No. 5 seed — in 2005 and 2010. The Spartans have also reached the Elite Eight as a 7 seed under Izzo as well (2003). Aside from Izzo, the only other Final Four coach still alive in the East heading into Sunday’s play was Rick Pitino of Louisville. This game really did take on a new degree of importance as far as the Final Four was concerned. Had Villanova still remained in the top half of the East bracket, Michigan State would not have been able to be seen as a leading candidate to get to Indianapolis by way of Syracuse, but once the Wildcats fell, Spartans-Hoos became a round-of-32 game with a Sweet 16 or even Elite Eight flavor.
Just like last year’s Sweet 16, Michigan State was able to shoot the ball a little better than Virginia did. As a result, the Spartans truly are a Final Four contender… at least to the extent that they never could claim at any prior point this season.
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It’s really rather startling to contemplate: Last year, Michigan State defeated Virginia despite the fact that the Cavaliers committed only six turnovers. Virginia just didn’t shoot very well at all. The Cavaliers were limited to 35-percent field goal shooting, and they made only 6 of 18 threes, which you can recognize as a 33.3-percent rate. That game featured through-the-roof defensive effort — it was, to use a specific phrase, a “defensive classic,” that rare basketball event in which a lot of shots clanged off the rim, but the whole of the competition was still enjoyable because the Spartans and Cavaliers raised defensive rotations to an art form. Virginia lost, but most people who watched that game came away with a dramatically heightened appreciation for what coach Tony Bennett has done in Charlottesville, molding a team into a Final Four contender.
The situational and emotional problem for Virginia this March is that while having to deal with Izzo and his two most formidable players, Travis Trice and Branden Dawson, the Cavaliers faced the suffocating pressure of expectations.
Last year, a high NCAA tournament seed was new for Virginia, and there was an awareness that something substantial had already been accomplished simply by winning the ACC double (the regular season and tournament championships). This year, winning the ACC outright (once again) represented yet another marvelous accomplishment for Bennett and Company. However, the memory of 2014’s loss to Michigan State in New York thrust a fat bundle of added pressure on the Cavaliers’ backs. Rich achievements should enable teams to breathe freely, but as soon as Michigan State appeared in Virginia’s subsection of the East bracket, the promise of the Big Dance turned into something less enjoyable. The Cavaliers knew they’d have to ace an assignment they couldn’t pass 12 months ago.
That can weigh on a team.
It would have been so much easier for Virginia to not have to deal with the school (and coach) which had brought its 2014 postseason to an end. As much as every Cavalier probably did relish the chance to strike back at Michigan State, the fact of the matter remained that Michigan State’s commitment to defending guaranteed a difficult day at the office. If Virginia was going to win, it wasn’t going to win easily. Knowing that a game won’t be easy — something much deeper than merely uttering those words as they trip lightly off the lips — is precisely the kind of dynamic which can make a composed and proven bunch of ballplayers shoot without the confidence that greeted a full season of conference games against familiar opponents in recognizable buildings.
Virginia just couldn’t find a comfort zone against the “Izzone.” As poorly as it shot the ball a year ago in Madison Square Garden, Sunday in Charlotte proved to be worse.
The 35-percent shooting rate of 2014 dropped to 29.8 percent this year. The 6-of-18 clip on threes slid to just 2-of-17 this time around. Virginia’s best crunch-time performer, Malcolm Brogdon, hit 4 of 14 field goals last year against Michigan State (28.6 percent). This year, he was only 3 of 12 (25 percent), a slight downtick. London Perrantes was 2 of 6 versus Sparta last year. This year? 2 of 10.
Virginia committed only five turnovers in this game, a smaller number than the already-miniscule total of six the Cavs surrendered to Michigan State last year. Virginia — displaying how well-coached it is — barely made any mistakes in terms of sloppiness. This was not an ugly game, because ugly games involve lots of turnovers and generally incoherent play. This was merely an example of ugly shooting.
Unfortunately for Virginia, another ugly shooting game reared its head (an ugly one, to be sure) against Michigan State in March. The numbers — and the sting of the loss — were both worse than in 2014.
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Michigan State isn’t a better team than Virginia. If these teams — based on the past four months of identity-revealing moments — played a best-of-seven series, the Cavaliers would win in six. However, this is a one-and-done tournament, so for the second straight year, the Spartans are the ones leaving a fistfight with Virginia as a team with realistic Final Four aspirations. Since there’s no home-court advantage akin to what Connecticut enjoyed last March in Madison Square Garden, Michigan State has to feel that it will be the better team against any remaining East Region opponent (that statement holds up regardless of Sunday’s subsequent results, which have not been registered at press time).
Could you have imagined this even two weeks ago, let alone two months?
No, you couldn’t have.
That’s pure Madness… ’tis the season for it.
